Commodities Market Impact Weather

Benchmark Midwest Flooding

Bryce Anderson
By  Bryce Anderson , DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist
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OMAHA (DTN) -- Midwest river flooding that matches historic levels, and ongoing chilly conditions in the Northern Plains, are the key weather items for the commodity trade's attention Friday.

HISTORIC MIDWEST FLOODING

The DTN ag weather forecast again calls for wet conditions to continue to delay corn planting during the next 10 days. Episodes of rain also continue to add water to the river systems of the Midwest, except possibly through the uppermost portion of the Mississippi River. Flooding concerns along the rivers are likely to continue. Lower temperatures favoring north and west areas while the southeast is warm at times. River flood levels in the mid-Mississippi valley are either at or above the levels during the historic flooding of 1993.

NORTHERN PLAINS CHILL

In the Northern Plains, cold and unsettled conditions will again disrupt and delay spring wheat and corn planting during the next five days. The six- to 10-day period will be drier, but still featuring below-normal temperatures. Planting progress will likely remain slow due to a combination of wet field conditions and low soil temperatures.

COOL WITH SHOWERS IN SOUTHERN PLAINS

In the Southern Plains, soil moisture remains adequate to surplus for developing winter wheat, especially through southern and east areas. Mostly favorable conditions are in place for wheat, except in areas of local severe weather or heavy downpours. Episodes of scattered thunderstorms will maintain adequate-to-surplus soil moisture for spring crops in the region, although some planting delays will occur.

RAIN HEADS FOR DELTA

In the Delta, dry and warm conditions early this week were favorable for planting. The region will see moderate-to-heavy rain during the next week, causing increased delays to fieldwork. Some flooding is also possible.

COLD IN PRAIRIES

A cold pattern along with recent snow in some locales will limit fieldwork in the Canadian Prairies. Light-to-locally-moderate precipitation may help improve soil moisture somewhat during the next five days. The six- to 10-day period will be drier, but still cold. Early planting progress is likely to be slow due to a number of concerns, including dryness in some areas, wet conditions in some locations and low soil temperatures in many locations.

STILL FAVORABLE IN CENTRAL BRAZIL

Central Brazil will have scattered showers continuing in key growing areas for second-crop corn (safrinha). This favors the filling crop.

SHOWERS FOR ARGENTINA

Central Argentina crop areas have increased showers in the forecast through the end of the week. The rain will cause some delays in row-crop harvest, but will not be excessively damaging.

PERIODIC BLACK SEA SHOWERS

Black Sea region crop-producing areas have more rainfall during the 10-day period, maintaining favorable growing conditions for winter grains and providing favorable moisture for planting spring grains and oilseeds.

EASTERN AUSTRALIA RAIN

In eastern Australia, rains continue to move northward through central and north New South Wales toward southern Queensland. When this system ends, the regions from Victoria northward through New South Wales and into southern Queensland, as well as the portions of South Australia, will have received needed rain to help replenish soil moisture for planting wheat. Western Australia, however, remains dry.

MAJOR INDIA CYCLONE

In the India subcontinent, Tropical Cyclone Fani made landfall along the coast of Odisha near the city of Puri with sustained winds of 150 mph. This would put this at the super typhoon status if the area was using the same scale as the western Pacific or a strong category 4 system using the Atlantic hurricane scale. The system will weaken somewhat as it moves into Southern West Bengal Friday and weaken further as it crosses northern Bangladesh and moves into Assam, India during the weekend. It is likely causing or will cause extreme to catastrophic damage due to winds, severe flooding and a coastal storm surge in eastern Odisha, and will cause severe floods to occur through West Bengal and Bangladesh. Southern West Bengal is also likely to see or is seeing a strong storm surge as well. Lives and property are under extreme risk in the region. There will be some damage to crops as well, but at this time of the year not many crops are at risk.

Bryce Anderson can be reached at bryce.anderson@dtn.com

Follow him on Twitter @BAndersonDTN

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Bryce Anderson

Bryce Anderson
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