Commodities Market Impact Weather

OMAHA (DTN) -- A cold and stormy pattern for the Midwest, more chances for precipitation for the Southern Plains winter wheat crop, and mainly favorable conditions in South America, are the key weather items for the commodity trade's attention Wednesday.

STORMY PATTERN FOR MIDWEST

The DTN ag weather forecast calls for a cold and snowy weather pattern in the Midwest that will affect transportation and stress livestock. Significant flooding is likely in the Midwest this spring due to heavy rains and snowmelt. A major late-winter storm is projected to affect the region this weekend, with a second major system also possible during the six- to 10-day period. These systems threaten more flooding over south, central and east areas and more heavy snow in the northwest. The first system, coming this weekend, may also have freezing rain.

MORE PRECIPITATION FOR SOUTHERN PLAINS

In the Southern Plains, the extreme cold is coming to an end. The chance for precipitation is mainly in north and east areas during the five-day period. There is some chance for moderate to heavy precipitation in many areas during the six- to 10-day period. This would provide adequate to surplus soil moisture for spring growth of wheat. It might also mean some risk of muddy feedlots in southwest Kansas.

FAVORABLE BRAZIL PATTERN

The central Brazil trend remains favorable for developing second-crop (safrinha) corn. The soybean harvest continues in central Brazil and is running well ahead of normal. Favorable weather is also in effect for late-filling, maturing and harvesting soybeans in southern Brazil.

WETTER PATTERN FOR ARGENTINA

In Argentina, heavy rain early this week will provide adequate to surplus soil moisture for filling crops, but may be unfavorable for early maturing crops or any early harvesting, especially in areas of local flooding caused by the heavy downpours. A somewhat more favorable weather pattern is expected for the balance of this week.

SOUTH AFRICA THUNDERSHOWERS

In South Africa, a few scattered thundershowers will favor eastern areas today and Thursday, and southern areas Friday and the weekend. Higher temperatures continue. These are favorable conditions for maturing crops, but somewhat unfavorable for filling maize and sugarcane.

INCREASED RAIN CHANCES IN WESTERN EUROPE

The Western Europe ridge continues to weaken. This should allow for a more variable temperature pattern and increased rain chances in that part of Europe. Rain is needed to replenish soil moisture after last year's major drought and following generally below normal precipitation and above normal temperatures during February.

RECENTLY INCREASED RAIN IN CHINA

It has been an active fall and winter weather pattern near the Yangtze River valley of eastern China. This will provide adequate to surplus moisture for crops in the region come spring. This is mainly the winter rapeseed-growing belt, but the moisture has, at times, extended into the southern winter wheat belt. The northern winter wheat areas have been drier, typical for this area during the winter. Rains have also recently increased in southern China crop areas. Rain in southern China will provide favorable moisture for planting early double-crop rice.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS IN PAKISTAN

Episodes of scattered showers and cool weather during this winter will favor development of crops in India, although the low temperatures may slow development somewhat at times. The exception to this is in areas of local flooding where rains were heaviest, most notably in Pakistan. A new system caused locally heavy rains in Pakistan and moderate rains through northwest India during the weekend.

Elaine Shein can be reached at elaine.shein@dtn.com

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