DTN Ag Weather Brief

DTN Ag Weather Brief

Joel Burgio
By  Joel Burgio , DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION

The northern branch of the jet stream features a migratory trough over Alaska. A weak ridge over northwest Canada. A trough over central and eastern Canada and a ridge over Iceland extending back into Greenland. This is producing cold/very cold temperatures across Canada. The southern branch of the jet features a ridge over the eastern pacific/Gulf of Alaska. A trough over the interior western U.S. A ridge over the eastern U.S. and a string subtropical ridge in the southwest atlantic.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK

The U.S. and European models are in good agreement through 10 days. During the 6-10 day period the northern branch of the jet stream will feature a blocking ridge over Alaska and northwest Canada. A trough over central and eastern Canada and a ridge over Iceland extending back into Greenland. This will be a cold/very cold pattern for Canada. The southern branch of the jet will feature a ridge in the eastern pacific/Gulf of Alaska. A trough over the western U.S. extending into the central U.S. and a ridge along and off the east coast of the U.S. Disturbances will eject eastward from the trough in the western U.S. moving along the boundary zone between the cold air to the north and west and the warm air to the south and east. This will be a stormy pattern for the central and eastern U.S. Temperatures will be colder the further to the north and west you head more variable to the south and east.

This pattern will feature below normal temperatures in the western Midwest, variable in the east. Precipitation near to above normal. The northern plains will see below to much below normal temperatures. Precipitation below normal. The southern plains will see near to below normal temperatures. Precipitation near to below normal west, near to above normal east. The Delta states will see near to above normal temperatures. Precipitation near to above normal.

Mike Palmerino

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH MON...91 AT BRIGHTON FL

LOW MON...32 BELOW ZERO AT DANIEL WY

24 HOUR RAINFALL ENDING AT 7 PM YESTERDAY…NORFOLK VA 1.19 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

The US and European models are in fair to good agreement during the outlook period, especially as it concerns the 8-10 day period. The mean maps at 8-10 days feature a strong high latitude blocking ridge over Alaska, northwest Canada and the southwest Arctic circle. We note a very strong middle and high latitude ridge over Europe that extends northwestward into Greenland and a fairly strong subtropical ridge that extends from the southeast Gulf of Mexico and the northern Caribbean through the southwest Atlantic. Above normal heights associated with the Atlantic ridge extend northward to Virginia and over of just south of southern New England. The polar trough is forced somewhat further to the south over Hudson Bay and northeast Canada by the high latitude ridges but prevented from coming further south over eastern North America by the subtropical ridge. The southwest portion of this trough is allowed to move further south over the northwest and north-central areas of the US, west of the influence of the southeast ridge.

This is a cold period for most areas of Canada with the possible exception of the Canadian Maritimes. This is also a cold period from the Pacific Northwest through the north-central areas of the US. This is a warm period for the southeast to the Middle Atlantic region. Temperatures vary somewhat in the northeast US and in the southern plains. The heaviest precipitation will occur associated with the storm track from the lower Miss and Ohio river valleys to the east-central US areas.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

BRAZIL (SOYBEANS/CORN/SUGARCANE/COFFEE): The return of the rainy season to central Brazil is very favorable for developing second crop corn but will cause some disruptions to the soybean harvest. Mostly favorable conditions for later filling, maturing and harvesting soybeans in southern Brazil.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/SUNFLOWER/WHEAT): Mostly favorable conditions for developing corn and soybeans in central Argentina at this time. A turn to hot, dry weather through midweek will deplete soil moisture. However showers later in the week followed by cooler temperatures will maintain mostly favorable conditions. Somewhat hotter, drier weather continues to stress sunflower development in the southern part of this region. The area will turn cooler late this week and this weekend with a few showers or thundershowers ahead of the cold front.

MIDWEST (SOFT RED WINTER WHEAT, TRAVEL and TRANSPORT): Stormy weather and episodes of cold temperatures will stress livestock and disrupt transportation and travel this week. Significant spring snowmelt and precipitation is expected to lead to delays in fieldwork.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (WHEAT/LIVESTOCK): Some beneficial precipitation for the overwintering wheat crop is expected this week. No damaging cold.

Precipitation in the feedlots will stress cattle.

SOUTH AFRICA (MAIZE/SUGARCANE): Widespread moderate and heavy rain occurred through maize and sugarcane areas last week. This will provide very favorable moisture for reproductive to filling crops. Some reports suggest that prior dryness may have limited overall acreage somewhat, especially in the western growing belt. However, improved prospects in central and east areas may make up for somewhat less acreage in the western growing areas. The weather this week looks to be drier and somewhat hotter for awhile.

EUROPE/UKRAINE/WEST RUSSIA (WINTER WHEAT): Mostly favorable conditions for overwintering crops. Autumn drought limited winter crop emergence and establishment from eastern France and the Low Countries into Germany and northwestern Poland as well as portions of the western and central Balkans.

Producers will likely need to replant in the spring in the worst drought areas.

A developing upper level ridge is expected to limit chances for meaningful precipitation in the central Europe crop belt for awhile.

CHINA (WINTER WHEAT/RAPESEED): An active fall and winter period near the Yangtze river valley of eastern China. This will provide favorable moisture for crops in the region come spring. This is mainly the winter rapeseed crop but the moisture has, at times, extended into the southern winter wheat belt. The northern winter wheat areas have been drier, typical for this area during the winter months.

INDIA (WINTER WHEAT/RAPESEED): Episodes of scattered showers and cool temperatures during this winter will favor development of crops, although the cool temperatures may slow development somewhat at times.

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EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest corn, soybean and winter wheat highlights

West: Snow, 4-10 inches, occurred during the 4 day weekend period. The heaviest occurred in from southeast Nebraska through south and east Iowa and in southeast Minnesota. Temperatures averaged below to well below normal.

East: Snow, 4-8 inches, through northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin during the weekend period. A little less than that across portions of southern Michigan. Very light precipitation elsewhere in the region. Temperatures averaged below to near normal.

Midwest Corn, Soybeans, Winter Wheat Forecast

West: Snow, 4-8 inches, is expected beginning later today and continuing tonight and early Wednesday. Drier later Wednesday. Dry Thursday. The heaviest snowfall may favor west and north areas. Temperatures average below normal today, near to below normal Wednesday, below normal Thursday.

A little light precipitation develops later Friday or during Friday night.

Moderate to heavy snow, ice and rain develops during Saturday, ending early Sunday. This may mean heavy snow and strong winds for some areas, especially west and north areas. Temperatures average near to below normal Friday, above normal south and east areas and below normal northwest Saturday, below normal Sunday.

East: Mostly dry today. Rain or showers south and east-central areas and snow northwest during tonight into Wednesday. Drier late Wednesday. Dry Thursday.

Temperatures average below normal today, above normal Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday.

Mostly dry Friday. Rain may occur Friday night near the Ohio river while snow or rain may develop in northwestern areas during this time. Rain or showers and thunderstorms favoring southern and east-central areas Saturday or Saturday night into Sunday. Rain or rain changing to snow northwest and far north areas during this time. Showers between these two areas during the period. Temperatures average above to well above normal during this period.

6 to 10 day outlook: Temperatures are expected to average mostly below normal west, near to above normal east. Precipitation near to below normal west, near to above normal east.

Central/Southern Plains wheat and livestock highlights...

Light precipitation, up to 0.20 inch, in north and east-central areas very early in the weekend period. Very light precipitaion favoring the western areas during the period. Little elsewhere in the region. Temperatures below to well below normal.

Central/southern plains wheat and livestock forecast...

Light to moderate precipitation central and east areas later today or during tonight. This may mean snow, 3-6 inches and locally heavier, from central and east Kansas to east Nebraska. Mainly dry during Wednesday and Thursday.

Temperatures average below normal today and Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday.

Chance for a little light precipitation during Friday. Moderate to locally heavy precipitation, favoring north and southeast areas, Saturday into Saturday night. This may include snow or rain changing to snow through northern areas.

Locally heavy snow might occur but this is a little uncertain. Drier again during Sunday. Temperatures above normal Friday, somewhat colder during the weekend...especially west and north areas.

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures are expected to average near to below normal north, somewhat more variable south. Precipitation near to below normal west, near to above normal east.

BRAZIL SOYBEANS AND GRAINS

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

A few showers in RGDS very early in the 4 day holiday weekend period.

Scattered to widely scattered showers and thundershowers in Santa Catarina and Parana during the weekend. Temperatures averaged below normal early in the period, near normal late in the period.

Forecast...

Chance for afternoon or evening showers today, favoring Parana. Dry or with only a few light showers Wednesday. Dry Thursday. Temperatures average near normal again today, somewhat warmer tomorrow and Thursday.

Mostly dry or with only a few light showers, favoring eastern areas, Friday through Sunday. Temperatures average near to above normal.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Rain and thunderstorms, 1.00-2.00 inches and locally heavier, occurred in Mato Grosso and Goias during the weekend period. Scattered to widely scattered thundershowers in MGDS during this time. Temperatures averaged near to below normal Saturday, above normal in Mato Grosso and below normal elsewhere in the region Sunday and Monday.

Forecast...

Scattered to widely scattered showers and thundershowers favoring Goias and Mato Grosso during today through Thursday. Temperatures average near to above normal during this period.

Daily chances for afternoon or evening thundershowers Friday through Sunday.

Temperatures near to slightly above normal.

Argentina Corn, Soybeans and Wheat...

Cordoba, Santa Fe, North Buenos Aires…

Mostly dry during the 4 day weekend period. Temperatures averaged below normal Saturday, near normal Sunday, above normal Monday. Highs Monday averaging 89 to 94F.

Forecast...

Mostly dry today and Wednesday. Showers may develop through southern areas during Thursday, continued dry central and north during Thursday. Temperatures above normal during this period. Highs mostly in the low to middle 90s F.

Scattered light to moderate showers and thundershowers develop in the south and spread north Friday and Saturday. Scattered showers may linger in the north during Sunday. Temperatures continue hot Friday but it should turn cooler during the weekend.

La Pampa, South Buenos Aires…

Mostly dry through Sunday. A few light showers with locally heavier during Monday or Monday night. Temperatures above to well above normal. Highs Monday were 91 to 101F, hottest in La Pampa and southwest Buenos Aires.

Forecast...

Mostly dry today. Dry or with only a few light showers Wednesday. Light showers with locally heavier, favoring north and east areas, during Thursday or Thursday night. Temperatures average above normal today and Wednesday, somewhat cooler Thursday. Highs low to middle 90s F today and Wednesday, possibly a little hotter.

Scattered to widely scattered thunderstorms, favoring north and east areas, during Friday. A few more light showers Saturday. Drier Sunday. Temperatures continue a cooling trend during this period.

Joel Burgio

DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist

(BAS)

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Joel Burgio