Commodities Market Impact Weather

Continued Brazil Dry Trend

Bryce Anderson
By  Bryce Anderson , DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist
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OMAHA (DTN) -- Continued heat and dryness in Brazil, and a concerning dry forecast for Australia, are the key weather items for the commodity trade's attention Thursday.

ADDITIONAL MIDWEST COLD

The DTN ag weather forecast calls for the Midwest to have another dry of the coldest conditions in years. The bitter cold is affecting transportation and producing livestock stress along with safety hazards. Many locations have seen record lows. Some soft wheat areas may also have incurred cold-weather damage. The bitter cold shows signs of easing going into the weekend; however, a new round of harsh cold moves into northern areas next week.

MILD SOUTHERN PLAINS FORECAST

Southern Plains crop and livestock areas avoided this week's bitter-cold wave. A notable warming trend is forecast through the next week, which may make the crop more vulnerable to later-season cold snaps.

BRAZIL TO STAY HOT AND DRY

Across Brazil, hot and mostly dry conditions through southern and east-central areas will maintain high stress on pod-filling soybeans, late-filling full season corn, and developing sugarcane and coffee at least through the coming weekend. This dry and hot pattern favors a more rapid harvest pace for soybeans, and also a faster planting pace for safrinha corn. Dryness and heat will also affect early development of safrinha corn if this pattern does not break soon. Showers are in the forecast for the weekend and early next week, but more will be needed to halt the steady decline of crop prospects going into February.

BENEFICIAL ARGENTINA PATTERN

Argentina crop weather is generally favorable for developing corn and soybeans in central crop areas, with adequate to surplus soil moisture and only brief periods of hot temperatures.

VARIABLE SOUTH AMERICA 10-DAY FORECAST

During the first week of February, central Brazil will likely see variable temperatures, with rainfall near to below normal. Southern Brazil should see temperatures below normal early in the period, and above normal later. Rainfall is expected to be below normal. Central Argentina will see temperatures averaging above or well above normal during the early and middle part of the period before cooling again, with rainfall near to below normal. Argentina rainfall will be associated mostly with a single cold frontal passage during the next 10 days.

DRY AUSTRALIA FORECAST

Seasonal forecasts for Western Australia call for well below normal precipitation. This drier forecast is unfavorable for the early growth of the next wheat crop. This trend will be closely watched.

Bryce Anderson can be reached at bryce.anderson@dtn.com

Follow Bryce Anderson on Twitter @BAndersonDTN

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Bryce Anderson

Bryce Anderson
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