Commodities Market Impact Weather

Variable Brazil Rain

Bryce Anderson
By  Bryce Anderson , DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist
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OMAHA (DTN) -- Big difference in Brazil rainfall chances, and a harsh cold wave over the Midwest, are the key weather items for the commodity trade's attention Thursday.

HARSH COLD FOR MIDWEST

The DTN ag weather forecast calls for very cold conditions and strong winds through the Midwest during the next three days. Blowing snow may lead to some ground blizzard conditions in northern areas, which will delay transport. During the coming weekend, an Alberta clipper-type low will bring significant snow to northwest and central areas later this weekend or during Monday. This likely means delays to travel and transport at that time.

BENIGN SOUTHERN PLAINS TREND

In the Southern Plains, conditions are generally favorable for winter wheat and livestock. A colder pattern is forecast through the next week, but does not appear to be cold enough to threaten wheat.

VARIABLE BRAZIL RAIN

In Brazil's crop areas, dryness remains a significant concern for pod-filling soybeans from Parana north to Mato Grosso and northeast to Bahia. Dry weather does favor the harvest, which dryness has forced to be advanced. In Rio Grande do Sul, a mixed outlook as some areas are having problems due to heavy rain and flooding while other areas are doing much better. Scattered showers indicated in Mato Grosso this coming weekend should not be enough to significantly affect the harvest of soybeans and may provide some needed moisture for planting safrinha corn, which follows the soybean harvest.

HEAVY ARGENTINA RAIN

Central Argentina has a steady round of moderate to heavy rain indicated through the next week. The rainfall may include areas that are already too wet.

BLACK SEA SNOW

Europe and the Black Sea region have an active winter storm pattern, extending from Italy and the Balkan states northeast into Ukraine. This likely means episodes of snow with heavy snow possible over the northern Balkan states and in Ukraine. Improving snow cover protects winter grains from winter cold. Meanwhile, snow leads to delays in transport at times.

SEASONAL CHINA PATTERN

China's major crop areas have no significant cold weather. Precipitation is mostly confined to the Yangtze Valley. The North China Plain is seasonally dry.

AUSTRALIA DROUGHT DAMAGE

In eastern Australia, harsh drought over the past four weeks has shriveled row crops, including sorghum. The next week offers only light precipitation, along with hot weather, especially in southeastern crop areas.

HEAVY NORTHERN INDIA RAIN

Rain and thunderstorms in Pakistan and northwest to north-central India since the weekend will provide a favorable boost to soil moisture supplies for winter wheat and rapeseed. However, some locations may have experienced flooding and local wind damage with the strongest of these thunderstorms. In general, the storm systems have been beneficial to crops.

SOUTH AFRICA HEAT

Corn areas of South Africa were hot Wednesday, with similar conditions in store Thursday. The weekend offers scattered thunderstorms. More rain and less heat are needed to ensure favorable development of corn and sugarcane.

Bryce Anderson can be reached at bryce.anderson@dtn.com

Follow himon Twitter @BAndersonDTN

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Bryce Anderson

Bryce Anderson
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