DTN Ag Weather Brief

DTN Ag Weather Brief

Joel Burgio
By  Joel Burgio , DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist
METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION

The northern branch of the jet stream features a series of weak ridges and troughs across Alaska, northern Canada and Greenland. This is producing mild/warm weather across much of Canada except in the far east where it is cold. The southern branch of the jet features a trough in the eastern pacific/Gulf of Alaska. A ridge over the western U.S. A trough over the south-central U.S. and a ridge along the east coast of the U.S. The center of subtropical high pressure is located over the southwest atlantic.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK

The U.S. and European models are in good agreement during the first 7 days, fair agreement days 8-10. During the 6-10 day period the northern branch of the jet will feature a trough over Alaska. A weak ridge over northwest Canada. And a trough over northeast Canada extending into Greenland. This will produce mild/warm temperatures in western and central Canada, variable in the east. The southern branch of the jet will feature a trough in the eastern pacific/Gulf of Alaska. A ridge extending from the interior western U.S. eastward to western portions of the Midwest. And a trough in the eastern U.S. This will be a dry and mild pattern for much of the central U.S. with the ridge to the west and the trough to the east.

This pattern will feature near to above normal temperatures in the Midwest. Precipitation near to above normal in the southeast early in the period otherwise below normal. The northern plains will see above to much above normal temperatures. Precipitation below normal. The southern plains will see near to above normal temperatures. Precipitation below normal. The Delta states will see variable temperatures early in the period, near to above normal thereafter. Precipitation near to below normal early in the period, below normal thereafter.

Mike Palmerino

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH THU...86 AT BROWNSVILLE TX AND MCALLEN TX LOW THU...25 BELOW ZERO AT BIG BLACK RIVER ME AND ESTCOURT STATION ME

24 HOUR RAINFALL ENDING AT 7 PM YESTERDAY…LITTLE ROCK AR 3.20 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

The US and European models are in fair agreement during the outlook period.

I favor a little more of today's US model.

A short wave upper level trough moves across the northern and eastern Midwest and into the eastern US region during the first 1-3 days of the outlook period. The European model is deeper and a little slower with this trough which leads to the formation of a significant precipitation event for the east coast states next Thursday into Friday. The significant precipitation associated with this system is mainly east of the Midwest region. The preferred US model is weaker overall with this system and has less precipitation. Temperatures above normal for many during this period, well above normal through the plains. Later in the period the US model shows a secondary trough moving from the Canadian Prairies into the Great Lakes region. This trough is shown deepening as it moves eastward. The northerly track suggests little precipitation for the Midwest with this system and colder temperatures only after the system passes by. The European model is actually weaker and faster with this new trough with not much precipitation at all and a variable temperature pattern.

The mean map from today's US model covering the 8 to 10 day period shows upper level ridging and above normal heights in north-central to northeast Canada and over Greenland. This high latitude blocking ridge, if verified, would likely force the polar vortex southward over eastern Canada and towards the northeast US region. This implies colder temperatures from the Great Lakes region through the northeast and east-central US. The model shows upper level ridging and above normal heights over the western US and the plains. This is south of the main jet stream and would therefore be much warmer. The pattern would change from above normal west to below normal east in the US somewhere over the Midwest region. The Canadian Model actually supports the high latitude blocking ridge over Greenland but the European model does not. I am leaning more in the directions of the US/Canadian Models mostly because of recent history of the pattern in the US.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

MIDWEST (CORN, SOYBEANS): Quality issues and some crop losses to soybeans are expected in the Midwest region due to prior cool, wet weather. Rain during the next 1-2 days for the southern and east-central Midwest further delays the final harvest effort in these areas and in the Delta. More favorable weather for any remaining corn harvest elsewhere in the Midwest and in the northern Plains.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (WHEAT/LIVESTOCK): Strong, damaging, winds occurred yesterday from southern Kansas and southeast Oklahoma southward. This likely impacted travel and transport, especially for high profile vehicles. Rain changing to snow combining with these high winds likely means blowing snow for some in west and central Texas but this does not appear to have been a widespread problem. High winds and low relative humidity with increased fire danger for the south Texas area and potentially any area north and west of where the precipitation occured. Less wind and improving conditions today and during the weekend.

DELTA/SOUTHEAST: Rain and thunderstorms returned to the region yesterday and last night. Rain and showers will continue today. Not as cold with this system so the chance for frozen precipitation is fairly low. Rain impacts travel and transport for a time.

BRAZIL (SOYBEANS/CORN): Hot temperatures during the past few days with only low coverage of any thundershowers. The southern growing belt, especially RGDS, will see increasing thunderstorm activity during the next 3-6 days. However the best coverage might hold off until the second half of the 6 day period. Areas from northern Parana to Mato Grosso will likely see mostly above normal temperatures and below normal rainfall during the next 3-6 days.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/SUNFLOWER/WHEAT): Thunderstorms with heavy rain and strong winds returned to the region yesterday and overnight. Heaviest in northern Buenos Aires and Santa Fe. There may be additional scattered thundershowers during the weekend but these do not look as heavy. Rain impacts seasonal fieldwork while maintaining adequate to surplus soil moisture for crops. Local flooding and local wind damage may have occurred.

SOUTH AFRICA (MAIZE/SUGARCANE): Maize and sugarcane likely benefited from rainfall and cooler temperatures last weekend and early this week. The region has turned hot again during the past couple of days. The above normal temperature and below normal rainfall pattern is likely to continue during the next 7 days. There are hints at a few afternoon thundershowers for southern areas early in the period that may reach to northern areas towards next weekend.

EUROPE (WINTER GRAINS AND OILSEEDS): Prior moderate to heavy rainfall and above normal temperatures has likely improved soil moisture for key growing areas in and near Germany. Colder temperatures during this week will limit the overall benefit to the winter crops. Reports suggest that replanting of winter grains and oilseeds to spring grains may be needed for areas in and around Germany.

The extent of the problem will likely not be known until development begins anew during the spring period.

UKRAINE (WINTER GRAINS): Moderate to heavy snow and rain for most areas of Ukraine during this week. Little impact to dormant winter grains. Improving snow cover to protect the crop from increasingly colder temperatures.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest corn, soybean and winter wheat

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Summary...

West: Rain occurred mainly in southern and eastern Missouri overnight. Drier elsewhere in the region. Temperatures averaged above to well above normal yesterday.

East: Rain southwest and central areas during the night, mixed precipitation northeast areas. Temperatures average above to well above normal yesterday.

Forecast...

West: Mostly dry today through Sunday. Temperatures average well above normal during this period.

Mostly dry Monday through Wednesday. Temperatures average well above normal.

East: Moderate to locally heavy rain or showers and thundershowers today and early Saturday will occur mostly along or south of a line from Saint Louis to Dayton. Rain may move through central and northeast Ohio before ending during the day Saturday. Mostly dry during Sunday. Temperatures average well above normal during this period.

Mostly dry Monday, Tuesday and most of Wednesday. Light rain or showers may develop in western areas Wednesday night. Temperatures average above to well above normal during this period, although northeast areas may be somewhat colder during Tuesday.

6 to 10 day outlook: Temperatures are expected to average above normal early in the period, somewhat more variable late in the period. Precipitation should average near to below normal.

Central/Southern Plains (Winter Wheat, livestock)

Summary: Rain, showers and thunderstorms, 0.30-1.50 inches and locally heavier, from central Texas northeast through south-central and east Oklahoma during the past 24 hours. Some mixed precipitation, including snow, in west-central areas of Texas. Drier elsewhere in the region. Strong, damaging, winds through most central and south areas. Wind gusts exceeding 50 mph were common, some reported gusts in excess of 60 mph. Temperatures averaged above normal for the morning lows, near to above normal for the afternoon highs.

Forecast: Precipitation and some wind lingers through southeast areas today, drier elsewhere in the region today. Mostly dry Saturday and Sunday.

Temperatures average above to well above normal.

Mostly dry Monday. Dry or with only a few light showers, favoring southern areas, during Tuesday. Mostly dry again Wednesday. Temperatures average well above normal during this period.

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures are expected to average above to well above normal during this period. Precipitation mostly below normal.

BRAZIL SOYBEANS AND GRAINS

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Dry or with only isolated showers during the past 24 hours. Temperatures above normal. Highs mostly 90-95F yesterday.

Forecast...

Mostly dry or with only a few light showers with isolated heavier today.

Scattered to widely scattered light showers with locally heavier during the weekend period. Temperatures above normal again today with highs well into the 90s F excepted, not as hot during the weekend but still likely near to above normal.

Episodes of scattered showers and thunderstorms appear likely in RGDS and Santa Catarina between Monday and Wednesday. Temperatures vary somewhat during this period but probably not as hot as it has been this week. Parana should see at least some scattered to widely scattered thundershower activity during the period but rainfall amounts and coverage in this area is somewhat more uncertain. Temperatures remain above normal in Parana during this period.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Mostly dry or with only a few thundershowers favoring Goias during the past

24 hours. Temperatures mostly above normal west, near normal east.

Forecast...

Dry or with only a few isolated showers today. Isolated to widely scattered afternoon thundershowers during the weekend. Temperatures average above normal.

The region is likely to see above normal temperatures and below normal rainfall during the Monday through Wednesday time period.

Argentina Corn, Soybeans and Wheat...

Cordoba, Santa Fe, North Buenos Aires

Moderate to very heavy thunderstorms occurred in the region during the past

24 hours, along with high wind gusts. Rainfall is currently estimated at

0.75-2.00 inches with some heavier. The heaviest rains appear to have occurred in northern Buenos Aires and Santa Fe but as the rain this might shift somewhat when final rainfall numbers are reported after 1200 UT. Temperatures averaged above normal through Cordoba and Santa Fe, somewhat cooler in northern B.A.

Highs yesterday were 93-98F through Cordoba, western and northern Santa Fe.

Forecast...

Scattered showers lingering northeast areas today, drier elsewhere in the region today. Scattered showers and thundershowers redevelop through Santa Fe, north and east Cordoba during the weekend period. This activity looks to be light to locally moderate. A few light showers may reach to west and south areas as well very late in the period. Temperatures average below normal today, somewhat warmer during the weekend.

Scattered showers favoring north and east areas Monday. Drier Tuesday.

Mostly dry or with only a few light showers Wednesday. Temperatures vary somewhat during this period.

La Pampa, South Buenos Aires

Rain or showers and thundershowers, 0.25-0.75 inch and locally heavier, during the past 24 hours. Windy during this period. Temperatures averaged near to below normal.

Forecast...

Dry or with only lingering drizzle today. Mostly dry Saturday. A few light showers may move through the area Sunday. Temperatures average below normal today, warmer during the weekend.

Dry or with only a few light showers Monday. Dry Tuesday. A few light showers with locally heavier Wednesday. Temperatures below normal Monday, warmer again Tuesday and Wednesday.

Joel Burgio can be reached at joel.burgio@dtn.com

(BAS)

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Joel Burgio