DTN Ag Weather Brief

DTN Ag Weather Brief

Joel Burgio
By  Joel Burgio , DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist
METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION

The northern branch of the jet stream features a ridge over Alaska and western Canada.. A trough over north-central Canada. A weak ridge over eastern Canada and a ridge over northeast Canada. This is producing cool temperatures in western Canada, cold in central Canada, cool in the east. The southern branch of the jet features a migratory trough in the eastern Gulf of Alaska. A ridge in the eastern pacific extending into the western U.S. and a broad trough over the central and eastern U.S. Centers of subtropical high pressure are located over the central atlantic and along the west-central coast of Mexico.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK

The U.S. and European models are good agreement through 7 days. Fair agreement days 8-10. During the 6-10 day period the northern branch of the jet stream will feature a weak ridge over Alaska and western Canada. A trough over central and eastern Canada. And a trough over Greenland. This will produce variable temperatures over western Canada, cool/cold central and east. The southern branch of the jet will feature a ridge in the eastern pacific/Gulf of Alaska. A trough over the western U.S. and a ridge in the eastern U.S. This will be dry pattern for the central U.S. with the trough in the west. It will be a warmer pattern with the ridge in the east. Expectations are that the pattern will turn stormy in the central U.S. beyond the 10 day period as the trough in the west heads eastward.

This pattern will feature below normal temperatures in the Midwest during the next 5 days, variable days 6-10. Precipitation below normal. The northern plains will see mostly below normal temperatures during the next 5 days, near to above normal days 6-10. Precipitation below normal. The southern plains will see mostly below normal temperatures during the next 5 days, near to above normal days 6-10. Precipitation below normal. The Delta states will see below normal temperatures during the next 5 days, variable days 6-10. Rainfall near to above normal during the next 5 days, below normal days 6-10.

Mike Palmerino

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH THU...93 AT MCALLEN TX

LOW THU...8 BELOW ZERO AT 11 MILES SOUTHWEST OF UTICA MT AND WHITE SULPHUR MT

24 HOUR RAINFALL ENDING AT 7 PM YESTERDAY…TALLAHASSEE FL 0.81 INCH

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

The US and European models are in good agreement early in the outlook period, fair agreement later in the period. The main, strong, upper level trough is shown lifting northward into eastern Canada by the start of the 6-10 day period. The US model shows a much weaker secondary trough dipping down over the northern and eastern Midwest during the middle of the period. This trough also lifts north of the region late in the period. The US model suggests that the extreme cold of the 5 day period will be moderating by the start of the

6-10 day period and this trend continues during the period. No significant precipitation is being forecast during the 6-10 day period. The European model shows a somewhat stronger and slower moving secondary trough dipping over the western Midwest and moving across the central and eastern Midwest during the middle to late part of the period. This model suggests that another cold surface high will move into the Midwest region during the middle of the 6-10 day period. Not as cold looking as the highs that impact the area during the

1-5 day period but colder than the one that the US model is forecasting and also longer lasting. Eventually this high also lifts north of the area and this finally allows for a warming trend. The European model also is fairly dry during the 6-10 day period. I favor a compromise between the models on this new high but with a slight bias towards the US model.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

MIDWEST (CORN, SOYBEANS): Drier weather with much colder temperatures moving into the area during the next couple of days. Improving conditions for the harvest. The drier pattern may continue longer range along with a warming trend. However, this warming trend would be delayed somewhat if today's European model is correct.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (WHEAT): Favorable soil moisture for pre-winter development of wheat. Snow and rain yesterday and last night but aside from this a more favorable weather pattern for planting the remaining crop. A possible exception to this is Sunday night into Monday when there is a risk for precipitation through southern areas. Colder temperatures will slow germination and early development for awhile.

AUSTRALIA (WHEAT): Reports coming from Australia suggest that this years wheat production will be much reduced from last year. Some are saying less than 50 percent of last years production, some even worse than that. Coming out of the winter months the west Australia wheat crop was in good to excellent condition while the central and northern NSW and Queensland crops had already been impacted by winter time drought. The spring months saw drought expanding into the southeast Australia areas as well. Meanwhile, West Australia also saw dryness and even a late frost during the spring. This crop is likely still better than most but not nearly as good as it could have been without the frost and the spring dryness.

BRAZIL (SOYBEANS/CORN): Mostly favorable conditions for development of early planted Soybean and full season corn in areas from Mato Grosso to RGDS. Hotter, drier weather for southern growing areas will favor planting progress through Monday. Rains during the middle of next week will supply favorable moisture for germination and early development.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS): Favorable conditions for planting and early development at this time. There is a high risk for heavy to severe thunderstorms during the weekend into Monday. Rainfall may be very heavy in some of these storms. If verified this would likely mean local flooding and it would lead to delays in planting progress.

SOUTH AFRICA (MAIZE/SUGARCANE): Showers during the past 5 days have likely improved conditions for planting and early development, after prior hot and dry conditions. However, a new upper level ridge is drifting into the area and it is expected to maintain a dry and hot pattern over the area during the next

7-10 days. This will likely increase stress to early planted crops while also extending planting delays for the western growing areas.

EUROPE: An unsettled weather pattern continues during this week, especially for England and France with somewhat less activity in Germany. Rainfall is needed to replenish subsoil moisture following summer drought and to ensure favorable development of winter grains and oilseeds prior to winter dormancy. The region may turn drier and much warmer again for most of next week.

UKRAINE/WEST AND SOUTH RUSSIA: A drier weather pattern at this time. Favorable for the final harvest effort for summer crops. Soil moisture and temperatures, in most cases, will favor development of winter grains.

CHINA (WHEAT/RAPESEED): Moderate to heavy rain through southern and east-central areas during this week will favor development of recently planted winter wheat and rapeseed. Rain may impact planting progress for these crops and any late harvests for summer crops... possibly including cotton. The area should be somewhat drier during the coming week, although light rains may still occur through the Yangtze river valley at times.

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INDIA (WHEAT/RAPESEED): Dry weather favors planting for the mostly irrigated winter wheat and rapeseed crops in north India. An uneven Monsoon rainy season means some locations may be short on irrigation and soil moisture to support these crops.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest corn, soybean and winter wheat

Summary...

West: Light precipitation far west areas as well as east and south Iowa and north Missouri. Temperatures averaged below to well below normal.

East: Snow and rain, mostly light precipitation totals, favoring central and southern areas yesterday or overnight. Temperatures averaged below normal.

Forecast...

West: Dry or with only a few passing snow showers today. Mostly dry during the weekend. Temperatures average well below normal. Low temperatures Saturday morning are expected to range from the single numbers to the low teens F.

Mostly dry Monday through Wednesday. Temperatures average well below normal Monday and Tuesday, not as cold Wednesday.

East: Windy with snow or snow squalls northeast and rain southeast areas during today. Mostly dry or with only a few snow showers in northeast areas Saturday.

Dry Sunday. Temperatures average well below normal during this period. The coldest low temperatures during this period should be in the teens and low 20s.

Chance for snow or rain near the Ohio river and through central areas of Ohio during Monday or Monday night. Drier Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday.

Temperatures average below to mostly well below normal during this period.

6 to 10 day outlook: Temperatures are expected to average below normal early in this period, near normal later. Precipitation is expected to average near to below normal.

Central/Southern Plains (Winter Wheat, livestock)

Summary: Snow or rain changing to snow, 0.10-0.50 inch melted, through south-central Nebraska, central and east Kansas, northeast and central Oklahoma. Snowfall of up to 5 inches has been reported in east Kansas. Showers and thundershowers northeast Texas. Temperatures averaged below to well below normal north and central areas, somewhat warmer south.

Forecast: Mostly dry today and Saturday. Light to locally moderate precipitation may occur Sunday or Sunday night through southwest areas, especially over the Texas Panhandle. Temperatures average well below normal today, below normal Saturday, well below normal Sunday.

Light precipitation south, fair central and north, during Monday. Mostly dry Tuesday and Wednesday. Temperatures average well below normal Monday, below normal Tuesday, near normal Wednesday.

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures are expected to average near to above normal.

Precipitation near to below normal.

BRAZIL SOYBEANS AND GRAINS

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Scattered showers and thunderstorms, a few heavy, in Mato Grosso, Goias and the northeast part of MGDS. The balance of MGDS was drier yesterday.

Temperatures averaged below normal yesterday.

Forecast: Daily chances for scattered showers and thundershowers during the next 5 days. The activity looks to favor Mato Grosso and Goias. Temperatures near to below normal.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Mostly dry during the past 24 hours. Temperatures averaged near to above normal yesterday. Highs yesterday 78 to 90F.

Forecast: Mostly dry today through Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal today, above normal during the weekend. High temperatures during the weekend should range from 85 to 95F.

Mostly dry Monday. Moderate to heavy showers and thunderstorms develop in RGDS during Tuesday, possibly Monday night. Rain and thunderstorms move to southern Parana during Wednesday. Northern Parana may see only light showers through Wednesday. Temperatures 80s and 90s Monday, cooler in the south and continued hotter north Tuesday. The north may turn somewhat cooler Wednesday.

ARGENTINA CORN AND SOYBEANS

Cordoba, Santa Fe, Northern Buenos Aires

Summary: Mostly dry during the past 24 hours. Temperatures averaged above normal. Highs yesterday were in the middle to upper 80s F.

Forecast: Scattered to widely scattered thundershowers develop through the southern part of this region late today or during tonight. Episodes of showers, thunderstorms and rain Saturday through Monday. Drier Tuesday. Dry Wednesday.

Heavy rainfall totals and general coverage appears likely during this period.

Very heavy rainfall and severe weather is possible during this time. Local flooding would result from any extreme rain areas. Temperatures above normal today, somewhat cooler Saturday. The cooling trend continues Sunday through Wednesday.

La Pampa and Southern Buenos Aires

Summary: Mostly dry during the past 24 hours. Temperatures above normal. Highs yesterday ranged from the low 90s west to the upper 70s east.

Forecast: Scattered afternoon or evening thunderstorms favoring central and east areas today. Scattered moderate to heavy showers and thunderstorms during the weekend period. The heaviest of the weekend activity may be in La Pampa and western Buenos Aires. Temperatures average above normal today, somewhat cooler during the weekend.

Moderate to heavy or very heavy showers and thunderstorms during Monday.

Windy with rain lingering during Tuesday. Dry Wednesday. Thunderstorms Monday may contain severe weather. Temperatures turn much cooler during this period.

Joel Burgio can be reached at joel.burgio@dtn.com

(BAS)

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Joel Burgio