DTN Ag Weather Brief

DTN Ag Weather Brief

Joel Burgio
By  Joel Burgio , DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist
METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION

The northern branch of the jet stream features ridge over Alaska and northwest Canada, a trough over north-central Canada and also south and east of Greenland and building ridge over Greenland. The southern branch of the jet stream features ridge over the eastern Pacific that is pushing into western Canada, a deepening trough over the central U.S. that extends from the Rockies through the Great Lakes region and into southeast Canada and a ridge over the western Atlantic that is centered well east of Bermuda. The subtropical ridge covers southern and central Mexico, the southern Gulf of Mexico and the northwestern Caribbean.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK

The U.S. and European models are in fair to good agreement during the outlook period. The short range period continues to feature a deepening trough and much colder temperatures through the central U.S. crop areas during the 5 day period. Rain chances shift into the southern and eastern U.S. during the next couple of days. A secondary disturbance brings rain to the Delta, the southeast U.S. and the middle Atlantic region during the Sunday-Monday time frame.

The 6-10 day period begins with the strong trough stretching from northwest of Hudson Bay through the Great Lakes region into the eastern Midwest. What looks like the last in the series of eastern U.S. storms is shown moving northeast into east Canada next Tuesday. The southern portion of this trough lifts northward into Canada shortly after Tuesday. Another, much weaker, trough develops over the northern plains before moving into the Midwest during the middle of the period. Late in the period the next trough is shown dropping southward over the northwestern U.S. region. The northward shift to the Midwest trough signals a warming trend for the plains and Midwest regions during the last part of the outlook period. The weakening of the trough pattern over the central U.S. suggests a drier period.

The mean maps at 8-10 days continue to show the north Europe ridge bridging across the northern Atlantic to Greenland. This high latitude block, although relatively weak, is enough to hold the polar trough over east-central to northeast Canada. So while the U.S. should moderate under a more west to east flow well south of this trough position, there may still be some cold weather in central and east Canada through the end of the period.

Joel Burgio

DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH WED...92 AT RIO GRANDE VILLAGE TX

LOW WED...0 AT CRESTED BUTTE CO AND LEADVILLE CO

24 HOUR RAINFALL ENDING AT 7 PM YESTERDAY…JACKSON MS 1.45 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

The US and European models are in fair to good agreement during the outlook period. The short range period continues to feature a deepening trough and much colder temperatures through the central US crop areas during the 5 day period.

Rain chances shift into the southern and eastern US during the next couple of days. A secondary disturbance brings rain to the Delta, the southeast US and the middle Atlantic region during the Sunday-Monday time frame.

The 6-10 day period begins with the strong trough stretching from northwest of Hudson Bay through the Great Lakes region into the eastern Midwest. What looks like the last in the series of eastern US storms is shown moving northeast into east Canada next Tuesday. The southern portion of this trough lifts northward into Canada shortly after Tuesday. Another, much weaker, trough develops over the northern plains before moving into the Midwest during the middle of the period. Late in the period the next trough is shown dropping southward over the northwestern US region. The northward shift to the Midwest trough signals a warming trend for the plains and Midwest regions during the last part of the outlook period. The weakening of the trough pattern over the central US suggests a drier period.

The mean maps at 8-10 days continue to show the north Europe ridge bridging across the northern Atlantic to Greenland. This high latitude block, although relatively weak, is enough to hold the polar trough over east-central to northeast Canada. So while the US should moderate under a more west to east flow well south of this trough position, there may still be some cold weather in central and east Canada through the end of the period.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

MIDWEST (CORN, SOYBEANS): Drier weather with much colder temperatures moving into the area during the next couple of days. Improving conditions for the harvest, although local fields in the west and north may experience some snow or snow squalls associated with the cold snap. The drier pattern may continue longer range along with a warming trend.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (WHEAT): Favorable soil moisture for pre-winter development of wheat. Light snow and rain today but aside from this a more favorable weather pattern for planting the remaining crop. A possible exception to this is Sunday night into Monday when there is a slight risk for precipitation through southern areas. Colder temperatures will slow germination and early development for awhile.

AUSTRALIA (WHEAT): Reports coming from Australia suggest that this years wheat production will be much reduced from last year. Some are saying less than 50 percent of last years production, some even worse than that. Coming out of the winter months the west Australia wheat crop was in good to excellent condition while the central and northern NSW and Queensland crops had already been impacted by winter time drought. The spring months saw drought expanding into the southeast Australia areas as well. Meanwhile, West Australia also saw dryness and even a late frost during the spring. This crop is likely still better than most but not nearly as good as it could have been without the frost and the spring dryness.

BRAZIL (SOYBEANS/CORN): Mostly favorable conditions for development of early planted Soybean and full season corn in areas from Mato Grosso to RGDS. Recent rain, some heavy, likely means delays to seasonal field work. A drier period for southern growing areas during this week will help improve conditions for planting.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS): Favorable conditions for planting and early development at this time. There remains a significant risk for heavy to severe thunderstorms at the end of this week. Rainfall may be very heavy in some of these storms. If verified this would likely mean local flooding and it would lead to delays in planting progress.

SOUTH AFRICA (MAIZE/SUGARCANE): Showers during the past 5 days have likely improved conditions for planting and early development, after prior hot and dry conditions. However, a new upper level ridge is expected to drift over the region at the end of this week. This signals another period of hot or very hot temperatures and little rainfall lasting well into next week. Soil moisture will diminish and planting progress may slow under this hot/dry pattern.

EUROPE: An unsettled weather pattern continues during this week, especially for England and France with somewhat less activity in Germany. Rainfall is needed to replenish subsoil moisture following summer drought and to ensure favorable development of winter grains and oilseeds prior to winter dormancy.

UKRAINE/WEST AND SOUTH RUSSIA: A drier weather pattern at this time. Favorable for the final harvest effort for summer crops. Soil moisture and temperatures, in most cases, will favorable development of winter grains.

CHINA (WHEAT/RAPESEED): Moderate to heavy rain through southern and east-central areas during this week will favor development of recently planted winter wheat and rapeseed. Rain may impact planting progress for these crops and any late harvests for summer crops... possibly including cotton.

INDIA (WHEAT/RAPESEED): Dry weather favors planting for winter wheat and rapeseed. An uneven Monsoon rainy season means some locations may be short on irrigation and soil moisture to support these crops.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest corn, soybean and winter wheat

Summary...

West: Mostly dry during the past 24 hours. Temperatures averaged below normal.

East: Mostly dry. Temperatures below normal north and central areas, near normal south.

Forecast...

West: Light precipitation through northern Missouri later today or during tonight. Snow showers and possibly squalls during Friday. Mainly dry Saturday.

Temperatures average below to well below normal today, well below normal Friday and Saturday. The low temperatures Saturday morning are expected to range from the single numbers to the low teens F.

Mostly dry Sunday through Tuesday. Temperatures average below to well below normal during this period.

East: Mostly dry today. Light precipitation, favoring southern and eastern areas, tonight or early Friday. Snow showers later Friday or during Friday night. Mainly dry Saturday. Temperatures average below normal today and Friday, well below normal Saturday.

Mostly dry Sunday. Light precipitation may occur through southern and eastern areas during Monday. Mainly dry Tuesday. Temperatures average below normal Sunday, below to well below normal Tuesday and Wednesday.

6 to 10 day outlook: Temperatures are expected to average below to well below normal early in this period, near to above normal later. Precipitation is expected to average near to below normal.

Central/Southern Plains (Winter Wheat, livestock)

Summary: Light snow developed overnight in southern Nebraska, northwest and central Kansas. Light mixed precipitation in eastern Kansas and a little light rain or drizzle in northern Oklahoma during the night. Temperatures averaged below normal north and central areas, near to above normal south.

Forecast: Light to locally moderate snow and rain through central and east Kansas today. Showers and thundershowers in northeast Texas today. Mostly dry Friday and Saturday. Temperatures average below to mostly well below normal during this period.

Mostly dry Sunday. Light to locally moderate precipitation south, fair north, Sunday night through early Monday. Drier again later Monday. Mostly dry Tuesday. Temperatures average below to well below normal Sunday and Tuesday, not as cold Wednesday...especially through western areas.

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures are expected to average near to below normal early in this period, near to above normal late in the period. Precipitation near to below normal.

BRAZIL SOYBEANS AND GRAINS

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Scattered moderate to heavy showers and thundershowers through Mato Grosso, northern MGDS and Goias during the past 24 hours. Temperatures averaged near to mostly below normal.

Forecast: Daily chances for scattered showers and thundershowers during the next 5 days. The activity looks to favor Mato Grosso and Goias. Temperatures near to below normal.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Mostly dry during the past 24 hours. Temperatures averaged near to above normal yesterday.

Forecast: Mostly dry today through Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal today, above normal tomorrow and Saturday.

Mostly dry Sunday. Scattered moderate to locally heavy showers and thundershowers develop through RGDS and southern Parana Monday or Monday night before moving into central and northern Parana as well during Tuesday.

Temperatures average above normal Sunday, cooler in southern areas Monday, somewhat cooler in northern areas Tuesday.

ARGENTINA CORN AND SOYBEANS

Cordoba, Santa Fe, Northern Buenos Aires

Summary: Mostly dry during the past 24 hours. Temperatures averaged near normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry today. Scattered showers and thunderstorms develop through southern areas Friday. Episodes of moderate to heavy showers and thunderstorms Friday night into Monday. Drier Tuesday. Rainfall totals during this period are likely to be heavy with general coverage, very heavy rains are possible as it severe weather. Temperatures average above normal today and Friday, turning cooler Saturday through Tuesday.

La Pampa and Southern Buenos Aires

Summary: Mostly dry during the past 24 hours. Temperatures averaged near to above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry today. Light to locally moderate showers favoring north and east areas during Friday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms favoring La Pampa and western Buenos Aires during Saturday. Temperatures average above normal today and Friday, near to above normal Saturday.

Scattered moderate to heavy showers and thunderstorms Sunday into Monday.

Drier Tuesday. Temperatures turn cooler during this period.

Joel Burgio can be reached at joel.burgio@dtn.com

(BAS)

Joel Burgio