DTN Early Word Grains
Higher U.S. Dollar has Commodities Off to Lower Start
December corn was down 1 3/4 cents, November soybeans were down 3 1/4 cents, and December K.C. wheat was down 6 cents.
CME Globex Recap:Stock markets in Asia and Europe are a little higher early Wednesday, reflecting the late session rebound in prices seen late Tuesday in the U.S. Dow Jones futures pointing to another lower start on Wednesday; the overall mood is less anxious. The commodity board however, is painted mostly red early Wednesday, facing a December U.S. dollar index trading up 0.42.
OUTSIDE MARKETS:Previous closes on Tuesday showed the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 125.98 points at 25,191.43 and the S&P 500 down 15.19 points at 2,740.69 while the 10-year Treasury yield ended at 3.17%. Early Wednesday, DJIA futures were down 141 points. Asian markets are a little higher with Japan's Nikkei 225 up 80.40 (0.4%) and China's Shanghai Composite up 8.47 (0.3%). European markets are also a little higher with London's FTSE 100 up 19.59 points (0.3%), Germany's DAX up 10.50 points (0.1%), and France's CAC 40 up 17.86 points (0.4%). The euro was down .0064 and the U.S. dollar index was up 0.42 at 96.13. December 30-year T-Bonds were up 17/32nds while December gold was down $2.50 at $1,234.30 and December crude oil was down $0.13 at $66.30. Soybeans on China's Dalian Exchange were moderately lower again Wednesday and Malaysian palm oil futures were down 1.0%.
| BULL | BEAR | ||
| 1) | U.S. corn shipments are up 80% in 2018-19 from a year ago | 1) | U.S. soybean shipments are off to a poor start as China largely stays away. |
| 2) | Soybean harvest delays may be masking crop problems. | 2) | Soybean planting is happening fast in Brazil, accompanied by beneficial rains. |
| 3) | Both corn and soybean futures continue to trade above their September lows. | 3) | U.S. wheat exports remain sluggish in spite of lower world production in 2018, down 25% from last year's dismal pace. |
CORN December corn is down 1 3/4 cents early Wednesday. Rain is seen in western Texas while the rest of the central U.S. is mostly dry. Light showers are expected to develop in the western Plains Wednesday and will slowly work toward the eastern Midwest by the weekend. For most of the Corn Belt, the forecast remains mostly dry the next seven days with greater rain chances east of the lower Mississippi River. With the soybean harvest going slower than usual this year and chances for more rain in the extended forecast, corn harvest progress is apt to remain limited. On the demand side, corn export activity remains active thanks to lower South American production earlier in 2018 and that trend should continue into early 2019. For now, the trend remains up in corn.
SOYBEANS November soybeans are down 3 1/4 cents early as harvest continues to make progress where field conditions will allow. A little over a month ago, we were all anticipating a record crop with anecdotal reports of soybeans looking great almost everywhere. Now, it is difficult to say just how this market looks with soybeans ruined by excessive rain, or in some cases snow, around several areas of the Midwest. Quality concerns have quickly become a concern in the supply chain with minimum standards being set and prices being discounted for soybeans that don't make the grade. At 43 cents above the board, FOB soybean prices in New Orleans have shown improvement since early October, but other evidence of actual export demand has been lacking. November soybeans continue to hold above their September lows, but are showing no strong direction at this time.
WHEAT December K.C. wheat is down 6 cents early, coming within a few cents of its September low. Western Texas is getting rain early Wednesday with light to moderate amounts expected to develop through the southwestern Plains the rest of the day. Winter wheat planting is a little behind its usual pace, but still seems workable and from a bigger perspective, the moisture is beneficial to this region where drought is a common concern. It is interesting to note that even though Europe had a dry start to its planting season, prices of December milling wheat have stayed quietly steady and are down a half euro early Wednesday with better rain chances now expected in the week ahead. Here in the U.S., the recent downward slide in wheat prices is pressuring noncommercial net longs to liquidate, but so far, prices are still in a sideways range, holding above their lows from July.
| DTN Cash | Change From | National | Contract | Change from | |
| Commodity | Index | Prev Day | Avg. Basis | Month | Prev Day |
| Corn: | $3.29 | $0.01 | -$0.41 | Dec | $0.004 |
| Soybeans: | $7.57 | -$0.01 | -$1.00 | Nov | -$0.003 |
| SRW Wheat: | $4.71 | $0.02 | -$0.38 | Dec | $0.010 |
| HRW Wheat: | $4.71 | $0.00 | -$0.36 | Dec | $0.002 |
| HRS Wheat: | $5.31 | $0.01 | -$0.54 | Dec | $0.011 |
Todd Hultman can be reached at todd.hultman@dtn.com
Toddcan be followed throughout the day on Twitter @ToddHultman1
(KR)
Copyright 2018 DTN/The Progressive Farmer. All rights reserved.
P[L1] D[0x0] M[300x250] OOP[F] ADUNIT[] T[]