DTN Ag Weather Brief

DTN Ag Weather Brief

Joel Burgio
By  Joel Burgio , DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist
METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION

The northern branch of the jet stream features a ridge over eastern Alaska and western Canada and a trough over central and eastern Canada extending across Greenland. This is a producing warm temperatures in western Canada, cool/cold in the east. The southern branch of the jet features a trough in the eastern pacific/Gulf of Alaska. A weak trough in the southwest U.S. A ridge over the northwest U.S. and Rockies and a trough over the central and eastern U.S. extending into the western atlantic. The center of subtropical high pressure is located over the northwest Caribbean.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK

The U.S. and European models are in good agreement though 7 days. Fair agreement days 8-10. We are leaning more towards the intermediate run (6z) of the U.S. model. During the 6-10 day period the northern branch of the jet stream will feature a trough over eastern Alaska and northwest Canada. A weak ridge over northeast Canada and a trough over Greenland. This will produce variable temperatures in western and central Canada, cool/cold in the east. The southern branch of the jet will feature a ridge in the eastern pacific/Gulf of Alaska. A trough over the interior western U.S. A ridge in the eastern U.S. and a trough in the northwest atlantic.This pattern will allow for increased precipitation in the southern plains and western Midwest late in the period along the boundary zone between the trough to the west and the ridge to the east. Temperatures will be variable, milder out ahead of systems, cooler behind them.

This pattern will feature variable temperatures in the Midwest. Precipitation below normal during the next 7 days, near to above normal west, near to below normal east days 8-10. The northern plains will see near to above normal temperatures during the next 5 days, variable days 6-10. Precipitation below normal during the next 7 days, near to below normal days 8-10. The southern plains will see variable temperatures. Precipitation near to below normal during the next 5 days, near to above normal days 6-10. The Delta states will see near to below normal temperatures during the next 7 days, variable days 8-10. Rainfall near to below normal during the next 7 days, near to above normal days 8-10.

Mike Palmerino

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH SUN...94 AT THERMAL CA AND PEMBROKE PINES FL LOW SUN...10 AT MOUNT WASHINGTON NH

24 HOUR RAINFALL ENDING AT 7 PM YESTERDAY…ELKINS WV 0.40 INCH

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

The US and European models are in fair to good agreement early in this period, fair agreement later in the period. I favor and compromise between the US model and the European model ensemble run. The mean trough remains over the eastern US during the outlook period, varying in intensity. This suggests cooler east and warmer west weather in the Midwest region. Precipitation chances early in this period are heaviest east of the Midwest. Later in the period a weak to somewhat moderate trough may move across the northern plains and into the western Midwest region leading to some light to locally moderate shower activity. The US model is somewhat heavier with this activity over the northeast plains region while the European model ensemble run is lighter. The operational run from the European model shows heavier precipitation moving over the west and the east Midwest regions at the end of this period. This idea is being ignored for now...mainly because the European model ensemble run and the US model has the precipitation mainly over the northern plains and western Midwest regions at the time.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

SOUTHEAST US (COTTON,PEANUTS): Major impact to crops from Hurricane Michael especially in Georgia due to heavy rains and very strong winds.

DELTA (COTTON,SOYBEAN,WHEAT): Wet conditions may delay field work early this week after light to moderate rains during the weekend period. Rain this week looks to favor the Louisiana and southern Miss areas while key growing areas north of there may stay drier.

MIDWEST (CORN, SOYBEANS): Drier weather during the next 5-7 days will help improve conditions for mature crops and harvesting in most areas of the Midwest region. Longer range there is some question as to whether this drier period would continue.

NORTHERN PLAINS (SPRING WHEAT, CORN, SOYBEANS): Drier weather during the next 7 days will improve conditions for the harvest which has been disrupted by rain and snow.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (WHEAT): A somewhat more favorable period for planting this week, except possibly in the central Texas area where heavy rainfall may occur. Favorable soil moisture for pre winter development of wheat.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (CANOLA,WHEAT): Mainly dry conditions during the next 5 to 7 days. Improving conditions for the delayed harvest.

BRAZIL (SOYBEANS/CORN): Mostly favorable conditions for planting soybeans and first crop corn in Brazil at this time. Favorable soil moisture for early development.

P[L1] D[0x0] M[300x250] OOP[F] ADUNIT[] T[]

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS): A variable temperature pattern and episodes of scattered rains will favor development of early planted corn and any early soybean planting in the central agri belt at this time. Mostly favorable weather for planting.

AUSTRALIA (WHEAT/COTTON/SORGHUM): Episodes of showers have recently improved conditions for reproductive to filling wheat in West Australia and through the southeast areas of Australia. Increasing shower and thundershower activity in northern New South Wales and southern Queensland is likely too late to significantly improve the winter wheat crop but the added rains should help improve soil moisture and irrigation for sorghum and cotton.

SOUTH AFRICA (MAIZE/SUGARCANE): Recent rainfall and cooler temperatures have improved conditions for planting in key sugarcane areas and in the east and some central areas of the maize triangle. Western maize areas could use more rain to encourage increased planting at this time.

EUROPE: Despite the recent mention of showers and some rain in the region the long term soil moisture supplies are still low in many locations. Portions of France, Germany and western Poland are in need of rain to ensure favorable moisture for prewinter development of winter grains and oilseeds. Significant precipitation during the next 5 days is mostly for southeast to east-central Europe. Longer range there is some chance for colder temperatures and added precipitation in west and central Europe during this coming weekend and early next week but this is somewhat uncertain.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest corn, soybean and winter wheat

Summary...

West: A little light rain through central and east areas very early in the weekend period. Drier otherwise. Temperatures averaged well above normal Friday, near to below normal Saturday, below normal early Sunday, near to above normal later Sunday.

East: Light precipitation, 0.10-0.40 inch, through northeast areas and along and south of the Ohio river during the weekend period. Very light precipitation elsewhere in the north and east areas during this time. Drier west-central locations. Temperatures averaged near to below normal Friday, variable Saturday, below normal Sunday.

Forecast...

West: Mostly dry today through Wednesday. Temperatures average above normal today, near to below normal Tuesday and Wednesday.

Episodes of sprinkles or a little light rain during Thursday and Friday. Dry or with only a few light showers Saturday. Temperatures average near to below normal Thursday, near to above normal Friday and Saturday.

East: Mostly dry today through Wednesday. Temperatures average near to above normal west and below normal east today, near to below normal Tuesday, below normal Wednesday.

Dry or with only a few light showers, favoring southeast areas, during Thursday. Mostly dry Friday. A few light showers Saturday. Temperatures average below normal during this period.

6 to 10 day outlook: Temperatures are expected to average near to above normal west, near to below normal east. Precipitation near to below normal.

Central/Southern Plains (Winter Wheat, livestock)

Summary: Scattered moderate to heavy showers and thundershowers through northeast Texas early in the weekend period. Light to moderate showers with locally heavier through southeast and south-central Oklahoma and north-central Texas during this time. Dry elsewhere in the region. Temperatures variable Friday, near to above normal Saturday, above normal Sunday.

Forecast: Mostly dry today and Tuesday. Scattered light showers or light rain during Wednesday, except heavier rain or showers may occur through central and northeast Texas during this time. Temperatures average above normal today, near to above normal Tuesday, below normal Wednesday.

Northeast and east-central areas may see passing showers during Thursday and Friday. Drier Saturday. Mainly dry elsewhere in the region Thursday through Saturday. Temperatures average below normal Thursday, warmer Friday and Saturday.

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures are expected to average near to above normal during this period. Precipitation near to below normal.

BRAZIL SOYBEANS AND GRAINS

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Moderate to locally heavy showers and thundershowers were reported in Mato Grosso, Goias, western Minas Gerais and southwest Bahia during the weekend period. Coverage varied somewhat within these locations. Mostly dry through MGDS during this time. Temperatures averaged near to above normal northwest, near to below normal south and east.

Forecast: Scattered to widely scattered showers and thundershowers today through Wednesday. Scattered showers and thundershowers may favor southern and eastern areas Thursday through Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal north, somewhat more variable south.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Mostly dry during the weekend period. Temperatures near to below normal Friday, near to above normal Saturday and Sunday.

Forecast: Mostly dry today. Light showers tonight will mainly occur in RGDS.

Episodes of light to moderate showers and thundershowers with some heavier possible for Parana during Tuesday and Wednesday. Only a few light showers in RGDS during these days. Temperatures average near to above normal today, cooler tomorrow and Wednesday...especially in RGDS.

Scattered to widely scattered light to moderate showers with locally heavier Thursday and Friday. Dry or with only lingering light showers during Saturday.

Temperatures average near to above normal Thursday and Friday, near to below normal south and near to above normal north Saturday.

Joel Burgio can be reached at joel.burgio@dtn.com

(SK)

P[L2] D[728x90] M[320x50] OOP[F] ADUNIT[] T[]
P[R1] D[300x250] M[300x250] OOP[F] ADUNIT[] T[]
P[R2] D[300x250] M[320x50] OOP[F] ADUNIT[] T[]
DIM[1x3] LBL[] SEL[] IDX[] TMPL[standalone] T[]
P[R3] D[300x250] M[0x0] OOP[F] ADUNIT[] T[]

Joel Burgio