DTN Midday Livestock Comments

Narrow Cattle Losses Develop

Rick Kment
By  Rick Kment , DTN Analyst
(DTN photo by Russ Quinn)
GENERAL COMMENTS:

Narrow pressure is seen in cattle trade with traders pulling back from earlier market gains seen at the beginning of the month. The inability for lean hog futures to set a consistent price shift through the Tuesday session indicates that traders are still trying to adjust positions following recent aggressive gains. Corn markets are higher in light trade. December corn futures are 3/4 cent higher. Stock markets are higher in light trade. The Dow Jones is 130 points higher while Nasdaq is up 4 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

Limited activity is seen through the entire live cattle complex with nearby contracts have been contained to 7 to 12 cent losses through late morning. The narrow gains seen over the last couple of trading sessions has helped to spark some additional underlying market support as futures contracts are trading at or near contract resistance levels, with the potential to shift higher through the next couple of weeks. The underlying tone of the market remains firm, although any significant moves in grain trade could limit widespread buyer support across the complex. Cash cattle interest still remains at a standstill Tuesday with bids and asking prices still undeveloped and likely to not be actively seen until midweek or later. At this point it is expected that trade will not develop until late in the week similar to recent weeks. Boxed Beef cut-outs at midday are mixed, $0.15 higher (select) and down $0.63 per cwt (choice) with light movement of 64 total loads reported (31 loads of choice cuts, 12 loads of select cuts, 12 loads of trimmings, 8 loads of ground beef).

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FEEDER CATTLE:

Narrow losses are seen Tuesday morning in feeder cattle futures with losses in nearby contracts hovering near 30 cents per cwt. Deferred futures have further narrowed trade activity following the early morning pressure with most 2019 contracts holding at 5 to 10 cent losses. There is expected to be some additional market shifts likely through the week, but the overall tone of the cattle complex remains firm given moves over the last week. But the renewed support in grain trade could quickly erode significant support in feeder cattle trade over the next couple of trading sessions.

LEAN HOGS:

Despite the general push lower in most contract months, October lean hog futures have rebounded from early losses with a 55 cent per cwt rally at midday. This support is helping to reduce early losses through the rest of the complex with late spring and early summer 2019 contract now trading steady to moderately higher in limited activity. The underlying strength seen in the previous trading sessions is helping to spark some additional market interest through the rest of the complex. Cash prices are lower on the National Direct morning cash hog report. The weighted average price is $0.05 lower at $62.66 per cwt with the range from $60.00 to $64.00 on 7,237 head reported sold. Cash prices are unreported due to confidentiality on the Iowa/Minnesota Direct morning cash hog report. The National Pork Plant Report posted 212 loads selling on the morning report. Pork carcass values fell $0.36 per cwt at $80.69 per cwt. Lean hog index for 9/28 is at $67.26 up 0.81 with a projected two-day index of 67.93, up 0.67.

Rick Kment can be reached at rick.kment@dtn.com

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Rick Kment