DTN Market Impact Weather

Beneficial Midwest Pattern

Bryce Anderson
By  Bryce Anderson , DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist
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OMAHA (DTN) -- A favorable pattern in the Midwest, and ongoing dryness in international crop areas, are the key weather items for the commodity trade's attention Friday.

MILD MIDWEST CONDITIONS

The DTN ag weather forecast continues to feature favorable conditions for filling corn and soybeans with adequate soil moisture and no persistent high temperatures. Dryness continues, however, in Michigan and Missouri. The potential for somewhat hotter weather late next week is not overly concerning at this time.

SOUTHERN PLAINS SHOWERS

The Southern Plains will have periods of showers and cooler weather that will favor filling summer crops at this time, especially through northern and central areas. Showers will also help replenish soil moisture for the upcoming planting season for winter wheat. A return to hotter and drier conditions is possible during the 10-day period.

NORTHERN PLAINS HEAT AND DRYNESS

The Northern Plains will have episodes of above to much above normal temperatures with little rainfall during the next week, which will deplete soil moisture and increase stress to filling corn and soybeans while favoring the harvest of spring wheat.

LIGHT RAIN FOR WEST TEXAS

In West Texas, periodic showers are indicated for the Panhandle over the next week. Activity will be mostly light. The key growing areas south of the Panhandle will continue mostly dry or with only a few light to locally moderate showers during this timeframe. The best chance for a few showers appears to be Sunday and Monday. Temperatures in the main growing areas will be in the low to middle 90s Fahrenheit through Sunday, upper 80s to very low 90s F Monday through Wednesday.

DRY WEEKEND IN PRAIRIES

Limited rainfall and episodes of hot weather in the Canadian Prairies continue to stress filling wheat and canola through the next week. Cooler conditions with showers are indicated for eastern areas in the 10-day period. Crop development is reported to be ahead of normal with some crops maturing and early harvesting started. Yield reductions are expected due to the hot and dry pattern.

DRY WEEKEND FOR EUROPE

Europe crop areas will have a variable temperature pattern during the next seven days with some periods of hot weather. Showers will be intermittent, with mostly light to locally moderate amounts, and generally below normal for the season. Hot and dry conditions have already affected wheat and corn crops. Sugar beets are also at risk from the dry pattern. An exception to this is in Ireland, Scotland and northern England, where post-tropical storm Ernesto is expected to bring rain and wind during the weekend.

POSSIBLE EASTERN AUSTRALIA SHOWERS

Eastern Australia continues with damaging dryness through the next five days. Forecast models suggest a chance for showers developing in the region at the end of next week or next weekend. This is a new development and carries a high level of uncertainty.

FAVORABLE NORTHEAST CHINA PATTERN

Northeast China crop areas continue to an improving moisture trend. Conditions are notably favorable for crops in Heilongjiang province.

CENTRAL CHINA STORMS

In central China, Tropical storm Rumbia brought rain and gusty winds to the lower Yangtze River valley during the past 24 hours. The post-tropical low will turn northward Friday. Rain is projected through much of the North China Plain through Sunday. Moisture is slated to improve for filling summer crops and building irrigation for the next winter wheat crop.

WESTERN INDIA RAIN

Moderate to heavy monsoon rains have returned to the key India growing areas for soybeans in west Madhya Pradesh this week and during the past 24 hours to soybean, cotton and sugarcane areas in Maharashtra and even eastern Gujarat. Key growing areas for cotton and groundnuts in the western Gujarat region were drier and hotter Thursday. However, it appears likely that significant thunderstorm activity will be reaching into these areas as well during Friday and Saturday.

Bryce Anderson can be reached at bryce.anderson@dtn.com

Follow Bryce Anderson on Twitter @BAndersonDTN

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Bryce Anderson

Bryce Anderson
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