DTN Market Impact Weather

Variable Midwest Conditions

Bryce Anderson
By  Bryce Anderson , DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist
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OMAHA (DTN) -- A more-variable pattern indicated over the Midwest and more very dry conditions in Australia are the key weather items for the commodity trade's attention Wednesday.

MIXED MIDWEST FORECAST

The DTN ag weather forecast is mixed for the Midwest over the next week. Northern and western areas have a dry and hot pattern indicated, with stress to filling corn and soybeans. Eastern areas will have more seasonal temperatures and periods of showers, offering better conditions for crops.

RAIN FOR SOUTHERN PLAINS

The Southern Plains forecast again features moderate to locally heavy rain during the next week. In contrast to earlier-season occurrences, heaviest amounts are indicated for the southern half of the region. This forecast will be closely monitored for possible soil moisture improvement ahead of winter wheat planting, along with late-season benefit to row crops and pastures.

WEST TEXAS RAIN

West Texas cotton areas are in line for showers and thunderstorms beginning Thursday and sustaining through the five-day period. Moderate to heavy amounts are expected. Moisture and more seasonal temperatures would be very important for avoiding further decline in the cotton crop.

HOT AND DRY OVER NORTHERN PLAINS

The Northern Plains pattern continues to feature above-normal temperatures and mostly dry conditions. This combination will deplete soil moisture and increase stress to filling corn and soybeans.

MAINLY HOT AND DRY IN PRAIRIES

Canadian Prairies crop areas remain mostly hot and dry during this week. This is a stressful pattern for wheat and canola, along with reducing hay supplies for livestock. Some oats acreages are reported being baled for livestock feed due to poor grain production.

DRYNESS REDUCES EUROPE HARVEST

In Europe, hot and dry conditions have severely affected crops. Germany's wheat crop is now estimated to be the lowest in the past 25 years. Scattered showers and thunderstorms and more moderate temperatures develop during the next few days, offering light benefit for row crops.

VARIABLE RUSSIA RAIN

In the Black Sea region, Ukraine through all but southern Russia has a very warm to hot and dry pattern through the rest of this week. Parts of southern Russia may see light to moderate rain. This trend will lead to further decline in row-crop conditions.

PERIODIC CHINA SHOWERS

Primary crop areas of China continue with the potential for scattered rainfall, along with seasonal temperatures, during the next week. This pattern is generally beneficial for crops.

VARIABLE INDIA CONDITIONS

India monsoon rains remain stalled. This lull in activity is leading to hotter conditions and soil moisture depletion in some sectors of west-central India, notably in Gujarat. Soil moisture in western Madhya Pradesh is still adequate for crops.

CHRONIC AUSTRALIA DROUGHT

Australia's primary eastern crop areas remain in the grip of historic drought. This damaging dryness is leading to projections of a 30% decline in wheat production for the 2018-19 crop year. The next week offers light rainfall in far southeastern areas, but almost no rain in New South Wales.

Bryce Anderson can be reached at bryce.anderson@dtn.com

Follow Bryce Anderson on Twitter @BAndersonDTN

(BAS/ES/SK)

Bryce Anderson

Bryce Anderson
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