DTN Midday Livestock Comments

Livestock Futures Shift Lower Thursday

Rick Kment
By  Rick Kment , DTN Analyst
(DTN photo by Russ Quinn)

Moderate to firm losses have developed across livestock trade with sharp triple-digit losses seen in feeder cattle markets leading the complex lower. Hog futures remain weak following additional pressure in cash trade. Corn markets are higher in light trade activity. September corn futures are 3 cents higher. Stock markets are mixed in light trade. The Dow Jones is 35 points lower while Nasdaq is up 65 points.


Moderate weakness has held through live cattle trade following sharp triple-digit losses in live cattle trade. The overall lack of support in the complex continues to be the main driver with August futures holding a 32 cent loss, while the remainder of nearby contracts are trading 60 to 70 cents lower. Cash cattle markets remain untraded through the morning with bids redeveloping in the same range seen over the last couple of days. Live bids are seen at $109 to $110 per cwt, while dressed bids are ranging from $172 to $174 per cwt. Asking prices are firm with previous days despite the pressure in futures trade. This leaves asking prices at $114 and higher live basis and $182 dressed. Boxed Beef cut-outs at midday are lower, $0.43 lower (select) and down $0.01 per cwt (choice) with light movement of 62 total loads reported (37 loads of choice cuts, 20 loads of select cuts, no loads of trimmings, 5 loads of ground beef).


Sharp losses have continued to be seen through the complex with feeder cattle futures holding triple-digit pressure through the end of the morning. The midweek market rally seen in all cattle trade, and most evident in feeder cattle is causing a reactionary price pullback with September futures leading the market lower, currently holding $1.40 per cwt losses. There is expected to be some additional market uncertainty through the entire complex, although traders remain focused on taking protection at this point.


Firm pressure has continued to be seen through the entire complex with losses of 80 cents to $1.15 per cwt seen in all nearby contracts. Continued pressure in cash hog values and underlying concern about the ability to move additional pork through the domestic and export markets has allowed futures traders to focus on continued market pressure. Nearby contracts are still at or near contract lows, leaving very little incentive for buyers to actively step into the complex. Cash prices are lower on the National Direct morning cash hog report. The weighted average price is down $1.28 at $56.35 per cwt with the range from $53.00 to $57.50 on 2,676 head reported sold. Cash prices are lower on the Iowa/Minnesota Direct morning cash hog report. The weighted average price is down $1.33 at $56.30 per cwt with the range from $55.00 to $57.50 on 586 head reported sold. The National Pork Plant Report posted 172 loads selling with carcass values falling $0.53 per cwt. Lean hog index for 7/30 is at $70.80 down 1.37 with a projected two-day index of $69.98, down 0.82.

Rick Kment can be reached at rick.kment@dtn.com


Rick Kment