Cattle Reports Flash

OMAHA (DTN) -- Cattle and calves on feed for the slaughter market in the United States for feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 11.3 million head on July 1, 2018, USDA reported on Friday. The inventory was 4% above July 1, 2017. This is the highest July 1 inventory since the series began in 1996.

The inventory included 7.13 million steers and steer calves, up 2% from the previous year. This group accounted for 63% of the total inventory. Heifers and heifer calves accounted for 4.15 million head, up 8% from 2017.

Placements in feedlots during June totaled 1.79 million head, 1% above 2017. Net placements were 1.74 million head. During June, placements of cattle and calves weighing less than 600 pounds were 400,000 head, 600-699 pounds were 345,000 head, 700-799 pounds were 385,000 head, 800-899 pounds were 378,000 head, 900-999 pounds were 185,000 head, and 1,000 pounds and greater were 100,000 head.

Marketings of fed cattle during June totaled 2.01 million head, 1% above 2017.

Other disappearance totaled 58,000 head during June, 4% above 2017.

"The numbers just released appear to be extremely boring, at least relative to what the trade expected," said DTN Livestock Analyst John Harrington. "Private analysts nailed this one pretty well. In terms of fed production potential, the report should be considered bearish. But that comes to no one as a surprise."

"The July 1 bunk line was confirmed to be the longest since the series began in 1996. The inventory included 7.13 million steers, up 2% from the previous year and 4.15 million heifers, up 8% from 2017. Here's more evidence that she-stock has moved back from herd expansion potential and forward toward fed beef production," Harrington said.

CATTLE INVENTORY

All cattle and calves in the United States on July 1, 2018, totaled 103 million head, 1% above the 102 million head on July 1, 2017.

All cows and heifers that have calved, at 41.9 million head, were 1% above the 41.6 million head on July 1, 2017.

Beef cows, at 32.5 million head, were up 1% from a year ago. Milk cows, at 9.40 million head, were unchanged from previous year.

All heifers 500 pounds and over on July 1, 2018, totaled 16.3 million head, 1% above the 16.2 million head on July 1, 2017. Beef replacement heifers, at 4.60 million head, were down 2% from a year ago. Milk replacement heifers, at 4.20 million head, were unchanged from previous year. Other heifers, at 7.50 million head, were 3% above a year earlier.

Steers 500 pounds and over on July 1, 2018, totaled 14.5 million head, unchanged from July 1, 2017.

Bulls 500 pounds and over on July 1, 2018, totaled 2.10 million head, up 5% from July 1, 2017.

Calves under 500 pounds on July 1, 2018, totaled 28.4 million head, up 2% from July 1, 2017.

Cattle and calves on feed for the slaughter market in the United States for all feedlots totaled 13.3 million head on July 1, 2018. The inventory is up 4% from the July 1, 2017, total of 12.8 million head. Cattle on feed in feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head accounted for 84.8% of the total cattle on feed on July 1, 2018, up slightly from previous year. The combined total of calves under 500 pounds and other heifers and steers over 500 pounds (outside of feedlots) is 37.1 million head. This is 1% above the 36.9 million head on July 1, 2017.

"Totaling 103.3 million head, the midsummer assessment turned out to be 1 million head larger than the year before and the largest midsummer head count since 2008," Harrington said.

"The 2018 calf crop in the United States is expected to be 36.5 million head, up 2% from last year's calf crop. Calves born during the first half of 2018 are estimated at 26.6 million head, up 2% from the first half of 2017. An additional 9.90 million calves are expected to be born during the second half of 2018.

"Feeder cattle outside of feedlots as of July 1 totaled 37.1 million head, roughly a half-percent above the prior year," Harrington said.

To view the full Cattle on Feed and Cattle reports, visit https://www.nass.usda.gov

	USDA Actual	Average Guess	Range
Cattle on Feed:
On Feed July 1	104.0%	104.0%	102.5-106.0%
Placed in June	101.0%	101.5%	95.5-106.5%
Marketed in June	101.0%	101.0%	98.5-106.5%

**

	USDA Actual	Average Guess	Range
July 1 Cattle*
All Cattle	101.0%	100.5%	NA
Total Cows	101.0%	100.5%	NA
Beef Cows	101.0%	100.5%	NA
Milk Cows	100.0%	99.5%	NA
Total Heifers Over 500#	101.0%	100.5%	NA
Beef Replacements	98.0%	96.5%	NA
Milk Replacements	100.0%	99.5%	NA
Other Heifers	103.0%	104.0%	NA
Steers 500# Plus	100.0%	100.0%	NA
Bulls 500# Plus	105.0%	100.0%	NA
Calves Under 500#	102.0%	100.0%	NA
2018 Calf Crop	102.0%	101.5%	NA
*Compared to 2017

John Harrington can be reached at harringtonsfotm@gmail.com

Follow him on Twitter @feelofthemarket

(AG)

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