DTN Closing Grain Comments

General Comments:

Corn was up 2 cents in the July contract and up 1 3/4 cents in the December. Soybeans were down 7 1/4 cents in the July contract and down 8 cents in the November. Wheat closed down 7 1/2 cents in the September Chicago contract, down 12 cents in the September Kansas City and down 5 3/4 cents in the September Minneapolis contract.

The September U.S. dollar index is up 0.44 at 94.38. August gold is down $8.50 at $1,260.40, while July silver is down 6 cents and July copper is up $0.0080. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 106 points at 24,359. August crude oil is up $2.30 at $70.38. August heating oil is up $0.0264, while August RBOB gasoline is up $0.0220 and August natural gas is down 0.005.

Corn:

December corn closed up 1 3/4 cents at $3.73 1/4 Tuesday, making an effort to hold steady after nearly a month of one-way selling in row crops. In the case of corn, a favorable start of U.S. crop weather in early 2018 caught noncommercials off-guard, holding heavy net long positions that could not be justified. Surprisingly, as of June 19, noncommercials were still net long 264,922 contracts and even though some areas are experiencing too much rain, USDA's crop ratings remain high. Late Monday, USDA took the good-to-excellent rating for corn from 78% to 77%, still the highest since 1999 when the good-to-excellent rating was also 77%. Trading is likely to be cautious this week, ahead of Friday's Acreage and Grain Stocks reports from USDA. Dow Jones' analyst survey expects USDA to estimate 88.4 million acres of planted corn and 5.26 billion bushels of U.S. corn stocks on June 1. If true, neither of those numbers should have much price impact, but this report is known for surprises. Technically, the trend remains down for corn and last Tuesday's low is a candidate for possible support. DTN's National Corn Index closed at $3.23 Monday, at its lowest price in five months and 28 cents below the July contract. In outside markets, the September U.S. dollar index is up 0.44 and outside commodities are mixed. August crude oil is up $2.30 with ongoing concerns about production from OPEC's members.

Soybeans:

November soybeans dropped another 8 cents to $8.87 1/2 Tuesday, still pressured by concerns about a trade war with China and by a good overall start for this year's soybean crops. Late Monday, USDA said soybeans' good-to-excellent rating stayed at 73%, which is the highest in over 20 years, but also close to the 72% seen in 2016. Missouri has the highest poor-to-very poor rating at 15%, but is also being helped by Tuesday's rains, crossing the Midwest. More moderate to heavy showers are expected across the Midwest the next seven days and will likely keep crop ratings high again next week. Meanwhile, U.S. soybean exports are down 8% from a year ago and it remains to be seen if USDA's 2.065 billion bushel export estimate will be met. Dow Jones' survey expects USDA to estimate 89.8 million acres of soybean plantings and 1.218 billion bushels of June 1 U.S. soybean stocks, a number that suggests slightly less soybean demand than a year ago. The concern is that USDA may be holding a surprise and that is likely to keep traders cautious this week. Technically, the trend remains down for soybeans with the November contract near its lowest November prices in over two years. DTN's National Soybean Index closed at $8.14 Monday, at its lowest price in over two years and priced 61 cents below the July contract.

Wheat:

September Chicago wheat fell 7 1/2 cents Thursday and September K.C. wheat was down 12 cents to $4.75 1/2, now within a dime of its 2018 low. Late Monday, USDA said U.S. winter wheat was 41% harvested, above the five-year average of 33%. Kansas' harvest was 52% complete, well ahead of its usual pace. In spite of this year's drought in the southwestern U.S. Plains, U.S. ending wheat stocks are still expected to be roughly 100 million bushels higher in 2018-19, helped by a larger spring wheat planting. USDA said Monday that 77% of spring wheat crops were rated good-to-excellent, the highest since 2012 when crops showed the same rating. Outside of North America, the forecast remains dry for southern Russia, but world wheat production is not expected to drop much from a year ago. With plenty of wheat still expected at the end of 2018-19, the trends for all three wheat futures remain down. DTN's National SRW index closed at $4.55 Monday, near its lowest price in two months and 22 cents below the July contract. DTN's National HRW index closed at $4.66, also near its lowest price in two months.

Todd Hultman can be reached at todd.hultman@dtn.com

Follow Todd Hultman on Twitter @ToddHultman1

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