DTN Ag Weather Brief

DTN Ag Weather Brief

Mike Palmerino
By  Mike Palmerino , DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist
METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION

The northern branch of the jet stream features a weak ridge over Alaska. A weak trough over northwest Canada. A weak ridge over north-central Canada and a trough over eastern Canada and Greenland. This is a warm pattern over western Canada, cool in the east. The southern branch of the jet features a trough in the eastern pacific/Gulf of Alaska extending into the western U.S. A ridge over the central U.S. and a trough off the east coast of the U.S. and over the northeast Gulf of Mexico and Florida. The center of subtropical high pressure is over El Paso Texas.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK

The U.S. and European models are in good agreement through 6 days, fair-poor agreement days 7-10. We are leaning towards the European model. During the 6-10 day period the northern branch of the jet will feature a trough over Alaska and northwest Canada. A ridge over north-central Canada and a trough over far eastern Canada and Greenland. This will be a variable temperature pattern for Canada. The southern branch of the jet will feature a trough in the western Gulf of Alaska. A ridge over the eastern Gulf of Alaska and a low amplitude jet over the northern U.S. and southern Canada. To the south of this jet weak subtropical high pressure will dominate the southern U.S. Embedded disturbances within the low amplitude jet stream will be the focus of scattered showers and thunderstorms. Due to the fairly rapid movement of these systems rainfall is expected to be somewhat limited in the Midwest and northern Plains but not enough to be of concern to crops as episodes of showers will be frequent maintaining mostly adequate soil moisture. Temperatures will be on the warm side as the low amplitude of the jet will prevent any significant movement of cool air southward out of Canada.

This pattern will feature near to above normal temperatures in the Midwest. Rainfall near to above normal. The northern plains will see near to above normal temperatures. Rainfall near to below normal. The southern plains will see mostly above normal temperatures. Rainfall mostly below normal. The Delta states will mostly have above normal temperatures. Rainfall mostly below normal.

Mike Palmerino

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH THU...106 AT DEATH VALLEY CA

LOW THU...30 AT LEADVILLE CO

24 HOUR RAINFALL ENDING AT 7 PM YESTERDAY…2.31 INCHES AT ORLANDO FL

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

The US and European models are in fair to poor agreement during the 6-10 day period. Today's US model looks more like yesterday's European model in that it develops more trough over the western US promoting more ridging over the Rockies and Plains and a trough over the eastern US. Today's European model has some similarities to yesterday's US model in showing a broad jet stream across the northern US and southern Canada to the south of a blocking ridge over north-central Canada. It is tough to make a call. Neither of these solutions would be particularly concerning for the Midwest and northern Plains. Both would feature episodes of scattered showers and thunderstorms although the European solution would likely produce near to above normal rainfall in the Midwest with the US solution near to below normal. We are going more with the European model as we would prefer the solution of a strong southern branch of the jet to the south of the blocking ridge and do not like the idea of so much trough over the western US at this time of the year which the US model is promoting.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

MIDWEST (CORN, SOYBEANS): A favorable weather pattern for developing corn and soybeans is expected to continue during the next 7-10 days with adequate soil moisture being maintained despite episodes of above to much above normal temperatures.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Hot weather and limited rainfall stresses immature winter wheat and summer crops over Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas but favors the early wheat harvest.

NORTHERN PLAINS (SPRING WHEAT, CORN, SOYBEANS): Generally favorable conditions for development of spring wheat, corn and soybeans throughout the northern plains.

UKRAINE/SOUTH RUSSIA (WHEAT, CORN, SUNFLOWER): While conditions are currently favorable overall for winter wheat, yield prospects have been trimmed by recent early-season heat and increasing short-term dryness (less than 50 percent of normal over the past 60 days) over western and southern growing areas.

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WEST TEXAS (COTTON): Persistent hot/dry weather could lead to major losses to dryland cotton.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (WHEAT, CANOLA): Moderate to heavy showers provided much-needed moisture for spring crop establishment in previously-dry locations in eastern Saskatchewan and Manitoba. Lighter rainfall also benefited emerging spring grains and oilseeds in Alberta, which had recently been trending dry.

CHINA (CORN AND SOYBEANS): Hot, dry weather in eastern China promoted maturation of winter wheat but reduced soil moisture for vegetative summer crops. Showers in portions of the northeast provided some relief from the heat and increased soil moisture for emerging corn and soybeans. However, key crop areas in Heilongjiang would benefit from more rainfall to aid crop establishment.

INDIAN MONSOON: cotton and oilseed producers in central and western states await the onset of monsoon rainfall before beginning widespread planting.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest corn, soybean and winter wheat

Summary...

West: Scattered light to locally moderate shows and thunderstorms favoring northern areas. Temperatures near to above normal.

East: Dry conditions or just a few light showers. Temperatures above normal with highs in the middle 80s to low 90s f.

Forecast...

West: Daily episodes of scattered showers and thunderstorms through Sunday.

Moderate to heavy totals are expected. Dry conditions or just a few light showers with locally heavier Monday-Thursday. Temperatures near to above normal.

East: Near daily episodes of scattered showers and thunderstorms through Wednesday. Rainfall totals during the next 3 days will be light to moderate with locally heavier. Dry conditions or just a few light showers Thursday.

Temperatures near to above normal.

6 to 10 day outlook: Temperatures near to above normal. Rainfall near to above normal.

Northern Plains (Spring Wheat, Corn, Soybeans, livestock)

Summary: Scattered light showers in the west. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Scattered light to moderate showers and thunderstorms Friday. Dry conditions or just a few light showers Saturday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms later Sunday and early Monday. Light to moderate amounts with locally heavier expected. Dry conditions or just a few light showers Tuesday-Wednesday. Dry weather Thursday. Temperatures above normal through Sunday, near to below normal Monday-Thursday.

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures near to below normal. Rainfall near to below normal.

Central/Southern Plains (Winter Wheat, livestock)

Summary: Scattered light to moderate showers and thunderstorms with locally heavier in Oklahoma and north-central Texas. Scattered light showers in south-central Kansas. Temperatures variable.

Forecast: Dry conditions or just a few light showers Friday. Dry weather Saturday. Dry weather Sunday. Dry conditions or just a few light showers Monday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms later Tuesday and early Wednesday.

Dry conditions or just a few light showers Thursday. Temperatures above to much above normal through Sunday, near to above normal Monday-Wednesday, above normal Thursday.

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures near to above normal. Rainfall near to below normal.

Mike Palmerino can be reached at michael.palmerino@dtn.com

(SK)

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Mike Palmerino