DTN Ag Weather Brief

DTN Ag Weather Brief

Joel Burgio
By  Joel Burgio , DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist
METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION

The most recent upper level analysis shows a strong trough centered near the west coast of Alaska, a weak to moderate ridge over the southern Gulf of Alaska extending into southwest Canada, a moderate trough centered just north of Hudson Bay, weaker troughs located over the northern Canadian Prairies and southeast Ontarioa and a ridge over New England and the Canadian Maritimes. The southern branch of the jet stream features a weak to moderate trough over the eastern Pacific, a moderate ridge over the western U.S., a weak trough over the central plains, a weak to moderate trough over the east-central and southeast U.S.

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

The U.S. and European are in fair to sometimes good agreement during the outlook period today, although the U.S. model continues to feature more ridge in the east and more trough in the southwest U.S. while the European model features a stronger trough moving through the north-central U.S. region. I favor a blend between the models today.

The northern branch of the jet stream features ridging extending from the southern Gulf of Alaska into southwest Canada, a strong trough over north-central and northeast Canada and Greenland and some ridging through the Canadian Maritimes. This likely means a variable temperature pattern for the Canadian Prairies and the northern plains of the U.S., sometimes warm and at times cool. In the U.S. we see a weak to moderate trough moving across the north-central U.S. region early in the period. This should mean showers for the area but these showers should be mostly light. Temperatures warm ahead of this trough and cool again behind it. The trough will also bring rains back to the western Midwest region early in the period while in the east it may continue drier until later in the period. Also warmer ahead of the trough and cooler behind it for the Midwest but the cooler weather may not reach back into the eastern Midwest until late in the period. The ridge builds north out of the Gulf of Mexico and into the southeast U.S. during this period. This should keep this area dry and warm for most of the period. The ridging will also delay the showers from reaching the Delta until late in the period. The Delta would be warm until the rain moves in late in the period. The ridge also slows down the southern branch trough over the southwest U.S. for a time. Eventually this trough moves into the southern plains wheat belt. The slow movement of the system may increase the chance for showers but mostly for the eastern wheat areas and possibly for south-central locations as well.

By Joel Burgio

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH TUE...105 AT DEATH VALLEY CA

LOW TUE...16 AT YELLOWSTONE LAKE WY AND PAHASKA WY

24 HOUR RAINFALL AT 7PM YESTERDAY…ATLANTA GA 2.34 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

The US and European are in fair to sometimes good agreement during the outlook period today, although the US model continues to feature more ridge in the east and more trough in the southwest US while the European model features a stronger trough moving through the north-central US region. I favor a blend between the models today.

The northern branch of the jet stream features ridging extending from the southern Gulf of Alaska into southwest Canada, a strong trough over north-central and northeast Canada and Greenland and some ridging through the Canadian Maritimes. This likely means a variable temperature pattern for the Canadian Prairies and the northern plains of the US, sometimes warm and at times cool. In the US we see a weak to moderate trough moving across the north-central US region early in the period. This should mean showers for the area but these showers should be mostly light. Temperatures warm ahead of this trough and cool again behind it. The trough will also bring rains back to the western Midwest region early in the period while in the east it may continue drier until later in the period. Also warmer ahead of the trough and cooler behind it for the Midwest but the cooler weather may not reach back into the eastern Midwest until late in the period. The ridge builds north out of the Gulf of Mexico and into the southeast US during this period. This should keep this area dry and warm for most of the period. The ridging will also delay the showers from reaching the Delta until late in the period. The Delta would be warm until the rain moves in late in the period. The ridge also slows down the southern branch trough over the southwest US for a time. Eventually this trough moves into the southern plains wheat belt. The slow movement of the system may increase the chance for showers but mostly for the eastern wheat areas and possibly for south-central locations as well.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (SPRING WHEAT, LIVESTOCK): A warming trend and some scattered light shower activity may help improve conditions for planting and early development somewhat but progress is likely to remain well behind normal for awhile.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (WINTER WHEAT): An increase in shower threats may not be enough to end the drought but it should be enough to improve conditions for development in some fields. More rain will be needed to significantly improve prospects for wheat.

MIDWEST (SPRING FIELD WORK): Cool weather and wet fields slows fieldwork and corn planting along with cold soil temperatures preventing germination. Most of the corn crop will not get planted until May. Warmer weather during the weekend and early next week will help improve conditions for planting and development, somewhat.

DELTA/SOUTHEAST US: Wet weather will slow corn and soybean planting. However episodes of dry weather in between rain events allows planting progress to average near normal levels. Cooler than normal temperatures this week will slow crop development. Warmer weather early next week will be more favorable.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (WHEAT, CANOLA): The main planting season begins in early May. Cold spring temperatures have likely limited early field work and may delay the start of the planting season. Top soil moisture has improved in some locations during the spring but subsoil moisture is likely still quite low.

Warmer temperatures will, for a time, improve soil temperatures but it may turn cooler again next week.

BRAZIL (CORN): Favorable soil moisture for developing second crop corn in central Brazil. However, the primary growing areas for second crop corn will be drier and warmer than normal for at least the next 7 days.

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SOUTH AFRICA (MAIZE,SUGARCANE): Favorable soil moisture for late filling crops. Favorable conditions for mature crops and early harvesting.

CHINA (WINTER WHEAT, WINTER RAPESEED): Moderate to heavy rains occurred during the weekend in key growing areas of south and east Henan province, through Shandong and southern Hebei...among other areas. This will support favorable development of winter wheat and rapeseed and improve soil moisture for future plantings of corn, soybeans, cotton and groundnuts in the area.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest corn, soybean and winter wheat

Summary...

West: Light to moderate showers through northeast to south-central Nebraska during the past 24 hours. Light rain or drizzle elsewhere in east Nebraska and far west Iowa. Drier elsewhere in the region. Temperatures below normal northwest, above normal elsewhere in the region.

East: Light showers through southeast and east areas during the past 24 hours.

Temperatures averaged mostly above normal for the morning lows, above normal west and below normal east for the afternoon highs.

Forecast...

West: Light to moderate rain mainly in northwest Missouri today, drier elsewhere in the region today. Mostly dry or with only a passing light shower or two during Thursday. Dry Friday. Temperatures average below normal during this period.

Mostly dry Saturday. Dry or with only a few light showers in northern areas Sunday. Light to moderate showers favoring north and west areas Monday.

Temperatures average near to above normal west and below normal east Saturday, near to above normal Sunday, above normal Monday.

East: Mostly dry or with only a little drizzle today and Thursday. Dry or with only a few light showers through northeast areas Friday. Temperatures average below normal during this period.

Mostly dry Saturday and Sunday. Dry or with only light showers developing through northwest areas Monday or Monday night. Temperatures average below normal Saturday, near to below normal Sunday, above normal west and near to above normal east Monday.

6 to 10 day outlook: Temperatures are expected to average above normal during the first 2-3 days of the period, near to below normal west and near to above normal east during the last part of the period. Rainfall should average near to above normal.

Delta (Corn, Soybeans, Cotton)

Summary: Mostly dry during the past 24 hours. Temperatures averaged near to above normal west, near to below normal central and east.

Forecast: Moderate to locally heavy showers and thunderstorms develop during this afternoon and continue tonight and early Thursday. Drier later Thursday.

Dry Friday. Temperatures near to below normal today, below normal Thursday and Friday.

Mostly dry Saturday through Monday. Temperatures average below normal Saturday, near to below normal Sunday, near to above normal Monday.

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures are expected to average near to above normal during this period. Rainfall near to above normal, due mostly to activity later in the period.

Northern Plains (Spring Wheat, livestock)

Summary: Light showers or light rain south, fair north, yesterday. Temperatures averaged mostly below normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry today. Dry Thursday and Friday. Temperatures average near to above normal today, near to below normal Thursday, near to above normal west and near to below normal east Friday.

Mostly dry Saturday. Dry or with light rain developing in west and central Montana during Sunday. Scattered light showers with isolated heavier during Monday. Temperatures average above normal west and near to below normal east Saturday, above normal Sunday, near to below normal west and above normal east Monday.

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures are expected to vary somewhat during this period. Rainfall should average near to below normal.

Central/Southern Plains (Winter Wheat, livestock)

Summary: Light to locally moderate rain, 0.10-0.50 inch and locally heavier, from southern Nebraska southward into northern Oklahoma during the past 24 hours. The heaviest activity appears to have occur in northwest Kansas to south-central Nebraska and in south-central Kansas. Temperatures averaged below normal north and west-central areas, above normal elsewhere in the region.

Forecast: Light to moderate showers today will occur mainly in east-central, southeast and south-central locations and mostly during the morning hours.

Drier during Thursday. Dry Friday. Temperatures average below normal during this period, possibly well below normal for a time.

Mostly dry Saturday and Sunday. Windy Monday with a few light showers developing. Temperatures average near to above normal west and below normal east Saturday, near to mostly above normal Sunday, above normal Monday.

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures are expected to average above normal early in this period, near to below normal north and west and above normal southeast late in the period. Rainfall near to above normal east and south-central areas, near to below normal elsewhere in the region.

By Joel Burgio

DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist

(SK)

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Joel Burgio