DTN Ag Weather Brief

DTN Ag Weather Brief

Joel Burgio
By  Joel Burgio , DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist
METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION

The northern branch of the jet stream features a ridge over eastern Alaska, northwest and central Canada and a trough over eastern Canada extending into western Greenland. This is a mild pattern for western Canada, cool/cold central and east. The southern branch of the jet features a trough over the eastern pacific/southeast Gulf of Alaska extending into the west coast of the U.S. and southwest Canada. A ridge over the western Plains extending north into the Canadian Prairies and beyond. A strong trough over the eastern U.S., especially the northeast U.S., and the western most areas of the Atlantic and a ridge over the northwest and central areas of the Atlantic. The center of subtropical high pressure is located in southern Mexico.

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

The U.S. and European models are in fair to sometimes good agreement as it concerns the weather pattern over the key central U.S. growing areas during the outlook period. The 5 day forecast does include significant precipitation for the northern portion of the central plains, the western and southern Midwest and Delta regions. The 6-10 day period is drier for much of the period but at the end a new system may develop to bring a chance of precipitation to the Midwest region. Today's U.S. model suggests a bias towards the south and east Midwest while the European model favors the western Midwest and is a little slower. There appears to be a phasing issue between the northern and southern jet streams today that might reduce the risk of heavier precipitation chances but this is uncertain.

The first part of the outlook period shows a trough moving over the Midwest region before shifting into the middle Atlantic region and then off the east coast. This might mean another east coast storm but there is considerable uncertainty in when or where this might occur. Also of note, the European model has some moisture in the eastern Midwest on Tuesday while the U.S. model is further east with this activity.

Later in the period the models show a new trough moving inland over western Canada and across the Canadian Prairies to the northern plains. The surface low associated with this trough is split between one center moving across the Canadian Prairies and a secondary low moving into the Midwest. This might mean only light precipitation associated with the northern low while the southern low features more precipitation, targeting the Midwest region.

This pattern will feature variable temperatures in the Midwest. Precipitation near to below normal during the next 5 days, near to above normal days 6-10. The southern plains will see variable temperatures. Precipitation below normal. The northern plains will see variable temperatures. Precipitation near to below normal. The Delta states will see variable temperatures. Precipitation near to above normal.

Joel Burgio

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH WED...87 AT 6 MILES NORTHWEST ELOY AZ LOW WED...12 BELOW ZERO AT 6 MILES EAST OF CHAMPION MI

24 HOUR RAINFALL AT 7PM YESTERDAY…BURLINGTON VT 0.81 INCH.

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

The US and European models are in fair to sometimes good agreement as it concerns the weather pattern over the key central US growing areas during the outlook period. The 5 day forecast does include significant precipitation for the northern portion of the central plains, the western and southern Midwest and Delta regions. The 6-10 day period is drier for much of the period but at the end a new system may develop to bring a chance of precipitation to the Midwest region. Today's US model suggests a bias towards the south and east Midwest while the European model favors the western Midwest and is a little slower. There appears to be a phasing issue between the northern and southern jet streams today that might reduce the risk of heavier precipitation chances but this is uncertain.

The first part of the outlook period shows a trough moving over the Midwest region before shifting into the middle Atlantic region and then off the east coast. This might mean another east coast storm but there is considerable uncertainty in when or where this might occur. Also of note, the European model has some moisture in the eastern Midwest on Tuesday while the US model is further east with this activity.

Later in the period the models show a new trough moving inland over western Canada and across the Canadian Prairies to the northern plains. The surface low associated with this trough is split between one center moving across the Canadian Prairies and a secondary low moving into the Midwest. This might mean only light precipitation associated with the northern low while the southern low features more precipitation, targeting the Midwest region.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTH PLAINS/WEST MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/HOGS): The storm track remains south of the North Dakota and northern Minnesota region for at least the next 7 days.

Precipitation chances in southern South Dakota, Nebraska and Iowa during this period may be light to moderate. This could be either rain or snow.

Transportation delays could occur at times.

EAST/SOUTH MIDWEST: Episodes of rain, some snow and periods of cooler temperatures will likely lead to delays in early field work during the next 6 to 10 days.

DELTA: Wet and very wet conditions will continue to hamper spring field work in the region. A new system may bring more rain to the area Sunday into Monday.

Warmer temperatures ahead of this trough will help dry fields somewhat but cooler weather follows which limits potential drying after the rain event.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (WHEAT, LIVESTOCK): Rain is expected to reach into key growing areas of north and east Kansas and possibly even central Kansas later this weekend. However, the driest areas of the wheat belt from southwest Kansas through west Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle will miss this chance. These areas also look to continue dry for the balance of the ten day period.

ARGENTINA (CORN,SOYBEAN): A weekend cold front passage will bring scattered thunderstorms and locally heavy rainfall to the area this weekend. These appear heaviest in northern Buenos Aires and Entre Rios at this time, however there is at least some chance for heavier rains in southeast Santa Fe as well. Key growing areas of western Santa Fe and Cordoba may see only light to locally moderate showers from this system. Drought and dryness continues to impact filling corn and soybeans. Rain, if verified, would help to stabilize crop prospects for some locations but losses have already occurred.

BRAZIL (SOYBEANS, CORN): Heavy rainfall in RGDS at the end of this week. This may be somewhat unfavorable for maturing crops and could delay the harvest as well. Parana looks drier and warmer during the coming days.

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SOUTH AFRICA (MAIZE,SUGARCANE): The region looks somewhat drier and warmer early this week but may see scattered showers late in the week. Mostly favorable conditions for filling crops at this time.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest corn, soybean and winter wheat

Summary...

West: Mostly dry during the past 24 hours. Temperatures near to below normal for the morning lows, above normal for the afternoon highs.

East: Mostly dry. Temperatures averaged below normal for the morning lows. The afternoon highs averaged above normal in the west, below normal central and east.

Forecast...

West: Mostly dry today. Light to moderate snow and rain Friday. Snow is most likely in northwest areas. Mainly dry again Saturday. Temperatures average near to below normal north and above normal south today, mostly below normal tomorrow, near normal Saturday.

Mostly dry during the daytime hours of Sunday. Light to moderate precipitation favoring west-central and south areas Sunday night and Monday.

Light precipitation elsewhere in the region during this time. Drier again during Tuesday. Temperatures near to above normal Sunday and Monday, somewhat colder Tuesday.

East: Mostly dry today. Light precipitation with locally heavier Friday, favoring Illinois and western Indiana. Dry or with only lingering light precipitation in the east Saturday. Temperatures average near to above normal today, below normal Friday, near to below normal Saturday.

Mainly dry Sunday. Light to moderate rain through southern areas Monday.

Light to locally moderate snow or rain favoring southern and eastern areas Tuesday. Temperatures average above normal Sunday and Monday, somewhat colder TUesday.

6 to 10 day outlook: Temperatures are expected to average near to below normal during this period. Precipitation near to below normal northwest, near to above normal south and east.

Central/Southern Plains (Wheat, livestock)

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures averaged above normal yesterday, especially as it concerns the afternoon highs.

Forecast: Mostly dry today. Light mixed precipitation will mainly occur in Nebraska tonight into Friday. Mainly dry Saturday. Temperatures average above to well above normal today and Friday. Cooler Saturday but still likely above normal.

Chance for a few light showers developing during Sunday. Light to moderate precipitation with locally heavier Sunday night and Monday for southern Nebraska, northwest, central and east Kansas. Light precipitation for northeast Colorado during this time. Drier from southwest Kansas through west Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle. Drier most areas Tuesday. Temperatures average above normal Sunday, cooler Monday, colder Tuesday.

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures are expected to vary somewhat during this period. Precipitation below normal west and central areas, near to below normal east areas.

BRAZIL SOYBEANS AND GRAINS

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Moderate to heavy thunderstorms were indicated yesterday in east and south Parana and extreme western Santa Catarina. Overnight heavy thunderstorms have moved over southern and central RGDS, approaching northern RGDS at this hour. Temperatures averaged above normal north, near normal south, yesterday.

Forecast: Moderate to heavy showers and thunderstorms in RGDS today, light to locally moderate showers reach to southern Parana today or tonight. Dry or with only a few light showers favoring Parana tomorrow and RGDS during Saturday.

Temperatures average mostly above normal in Parana during this period.

Temperatures vary somewhat in RGDS during this time.

Dry or with only a few light showers with locally heavier Sunday and Monday, mainly in RGDS. Light to moderate showers and thundershowers south, fair north, during Tuesday. Temperatures average above normal during this period.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Scattered showers and thundershowers were indicated in west-central and central Mato yesterday. Dry or with only isolated activity otherwise.

Temperatures averaged above normal south, near to below normal north.

Forecast: Dry or with only a few light showers with locally heavier today through Saturday, although there is a slight chance for scattered showers in northern areas at times. Temperatures near to above normal.

Dry or with only a few light showers with locally heavier Sunday and Monday.

Temperatures near to above normal.

Argentina Corn, Soybeans and Wheat...

Cordoba, Santa Fe, North Buenos Aires

Summary: Light to locally moderate showers occurred in northeast Buenos Aires overnight. A few light showers in north-central Buenos Aires during this time.

Little elsewhere in the region. Temperatures above normal. Highs mostly 87 to 93F.

Forecast: Mostly dry today and Friday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms develop during Saturday and end during Sunday. Moderate to heavy rainfall appears likely during this period over northern Buenos Aires. There is some chance for heavy thunderstorms to reach southern Santa Fe and Entre Rios as well. Areas further north and west look to see light to locally moderate showers during this time frame. Temperatures trend warmer through Saturday, cooler again Sunday.

Mainly dry Monday through Wednesday. Cooler at first and then somewhat warmer.

La Pampa, South Buenos Aires

Summary: Dry or with only a few light or very light showers during the past 24 hours. Temperatures averaged above normal. Highs mostly 81 to 89F yesterday.

Forecast: Mostly dry today and Friday. Scattered showers and thundershowers favoring central and eastern areas during Saturday. Temperatures average above normal today and Friday, cooler Saturday.

Rain may linger in the east, drier central and west, during Sunday. Mainly dry Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures vary somewhat during this period.

Joel Burgio can be reached at joel.burgio@dtn.com

(SK)

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Joel Burgio