DTN Midday Livestock Comments

Livestock Futures Shift Lower on Outside Market Pressure

Rick Kment
By  Rick Kment , DTN Analyst
(DTN photo by Russ Quinn)
GENERAL COMMENTS:

Livestock futures remain mostly lower in light to moderate trade activity. This will continue to drive additional weakness into the market following volatile market shifts through the entire week. Corn prices are lower in light trade. March corn futures are 2 cents lower Friday. Stock markets are lower in active trade. The Dow Jones is 383 points lower while Nasdaq is down 129 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

Mixed trade has continued to hold in live cattle trade with front-month February futures posting a 45 cent per barrel gain. The rest of the complex has eased lower though the morning with nearby contracts holding limited losses. The most aggressive pressure has been seen in deferred contracts as the heavy midday losses in feeder cattle markets are having a greater impact in the complex. Cash cattle trade remains undeveloped midday Friday with activity expected to develop over the next several hours. Bids have increased slightly through live bids with bids generally at $126 per cwt live basis. Dressed bids remain at $198 per cwt, which is the top of the range seen earlier in the week. Asking prices have not budged and likely will hold with live markets priced at $129 to $130 per cwt with dressed trade at $202 to $203 per cwt. Boxed Beef cut-outs at midday are lower, $0.76 lower (select) and down $2.03 per cwt (choice) with light movement of 75 total loads reported (38 loads of choice cuts, 11 loads of select cuts, 10 loads of trimmings, 16 loads of ground beef).

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FEEDER CATTLE:

Triple-digit losses have quickly developed across the complex with traders pulling back from the complex at the end of the week. Feeder cattle futures are holding losses of $1 to $1.50 per cwt with very limited buyer support expected to develop over the near future. It is uncertain just how much volume is seen during the late-day pressure, but the inability to stabilize the market may lead to increased trade activity next week.

LEAN HOGS:

Moderate selling activity has developed at midday, breaking away from the mixed trade seen over the last two days. Prices have quickly seen moderate price erosion as the softness in cash and pork prices has limited any additional future buying interest. Most contracts are holding losses of 40 to 60 cents per cwt as traders remain focused on the overall limited interest in the market. Cash prices are lower on the National Direct morning cash hog report. The weighted average price is down $0.15 at $69.35 per cwt with the range from $67.00 to $69.50 on 2,217 head reported sold. Cash prices are unreported due to confidentiality on the Iowa/Minnesota Direct morning cash hog report. The National Pork Plant Report posted 155 loads selling with carcass values falling $1.60 per cwt. Lean hog index for 2/7 is at $75.63, up 0.25 with a projected two-day index of $75.38, down 0.25.

Rick Kment can be reached at rick.kment@dtn.com

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Rick Kment