DTN Ag Weather Brief

DTN Ag Weather Brief

Mike Palmerino
By  Mike Palmerino , DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist

FOLLOW-UP SIGNIFICANT US WEATHER

UPDATED FORECASTS: No significant changes to this morning's forecasts. Episodes of rain will continue to disrupt the remaining corn harvest in the eastern Midwest through the end of the week. Drier weather is expected next week. More favorable weather for the remaining harvest in the western Midwest.

West Midwest: Light rain Friday. Dry conditions or just some lingering light precipitation in the southeast Saturday. Dry weather Sunday-Wednesday.

Temperatures above normal Friday, near to below normal Saturday, variable Sunday, near to above normal Monday, near to below normal Tuesday, variable Wednesday.

East Midwest: Rain later Friday and Saturday. Moderate to heavy totals are expected. Dry weather Sunday-Wednesday. Temperatures near to above normal Friday-Saturday, below normal Sunday, near to above normal Monday-Tuesday, near to below normal Wednesday.

Delta: Dry weather through Friday. Light rain Saturday. Dry weather Sunday-Wednesday. Temperatures above normal Friday, near to above normal Saturday, near to below normal Sunday, near to above normal Monday-Tuesday, near to below normal Wednesday.

Southeast States: Dry weather into Friday. Light rain later Friday and early Saturday. Dry weather Sunday-Wednesday. Temperatures near to above normal Friday-Saturday, near to below normal Sunday, variable Monday, near to above normal Tuesday, near to below normal Wednesday.

Northern Plains: Dry conditions or just some light mixed precipitation Friday.

Mostly dry weather Friday-Tuesday. Dry conditions or just some light mixed precipitation Wednesday. Temperatures near to below normal Friday-Saturday, near to above normal Sunday, variable Monday, near to below normal Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday.

Southern Plains: Mostly dry weather during the next 7 days except for the chance of some light precipitation in the north late Friday and early Saturday.

Temperatures above normal Friday, below normal Saturday, above normal Sunday-Monday, below normal Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday.

West Texas: Dry weather during the next 7 days. Temperatures above normal Friday, below normal Saturday, near to above normal Sunday-Monday, near to below normal Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday.

Mike Palmerino

***

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH WED...90 AT KINGSVILLE NAS TX

LOW WED...1 AT WEST YELLOWSTONE MT

24 HOUR RAINFALL AT 7PM YESTERDAY...ST STE MARIE MI 1.64 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

The US and European models are in fair agreement during the outlook period.

I favor a compromise between the models during this time but there is some uncertainty in this outlook.

The US model shows the strong ridge that was over north-central and northeast Canada and Greenland yesterday has shifted to the east and is located over the north Atlantic and Greenland on today's mean map at 8-10 days. This allows the polar trough to shift from southeast Canada and the northeast US yesterday to the north-central Canada area today. This is a somewhat warmer flow for the US but with still some tendency for cool highs to move south out of northwest and central Canada to towards the Midwest region. Strong west or west-northwest flow limits the potential for precipitation in key growing areas west of the Miss river and even east of the Miss river the central Midwest continues drier while extreme east areas may see only light precipitation at times.

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The European model maintains more ridging in northeast Canada and Greenland than does the US model but the model was not as strong with this feature as the US model was yesterday and has weakened the ridge further for today. This allows the southeast Canada trough to weaken somewhat and to shift northward somewhat, though still in the east. The jet stream and the above normal heights are further north and east on today's European model than on the US model and would suggest warmer weather further north and east as well. As with the US model the European model also features a drier pattern continuing for the plains and western Midwest and possibly expanding into the eastern Midwest.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

MIDWEST (CORN): Mainly favorable conditions for the remaining harvest activities in the western Midwest during this week. Precipitation in the east will keep this portion of the harvest slower, especially in Indiana and Ohio with additional heavier rains likely at the end of the week.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (WHEAT, LIVESTOCK): Favorable conditions for developing winter wheat at this time. Soil moisture due to early season rainfall will favor crop development. However, a drying trend in the region does bear watching as we head into the winter dormancy period.

BRAZIL (SOYBEANS, CORN): A favorable rainfall pattern for planting and developing soybeans in central Brazil after earlier hot, dry weather.

A break in the rainy pattern over southern areas that began during the weekend continued early this week. This may help improve conditions for planting and early development. Rain returns to the area later in the week, maintaining adequate to surplus soil moisture but slowing seasonal field work, especially over Parana.

ARGENTINA (CORN,SOYBEAN,SUNFLOWER): Mostly favorable conditions at this time for planting and development of corn, soybeans although drier weather during the next 7 days will deplete soil moisture. Also recent hot temperatures and very windy conditions have also served to deplete soil moisture in the central growing belt.

SOUTH AFRICA (MAIZE,SUGARCANE): Moderate to heavy rain and thunderstorms occurred through southeast and east-central growing areas during the past couple of days. This includes most of the sugarcane growing region, both irrigated and non-irrigated. Moderate rains reached to the south-central and southeast part of the key maize growing region but only light and scattered showers occurred elsewhere in the maize belt. More rain would be welcome in western maize areas to support development of recently planted fields and encourage additional planting activities. Soil moisture should be adequate for current needs of maize elsewhere in the region.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest corn, soybean and winter wheat

Summary...

West: Mostly dry during the past 24 hours. Temperatures averaged above normal yesterday.

East: Mostly rain totals, 0.25-0.75 inch, from eastern Illinois through Indiana and Michigan during the past 24 hours. Light rainfall totals elsewhere in the region during this time. Temperatures averaged above to well above normal yesterday.

Forecast...

West: Mostly dry today. Light to locally moderate showers east, a little light shower activity west, during Friday. Dry or with only lingering light precipitation in eastern most areas Saturday. Temperatures average near to below normal today, above to well above normal Friday, above normal early Saturday, cooler later Saturday.

Mostly dry Sunday through Tuesday. Temperatures vary somewhat during this period.

East: Mostly dry today and most of Friday. Light to locally moderate rain develops through north and west-central areas Friday night. Moderate to heavy precipitation Saturday into Saturday night. Temperatures average near to mostly above normal during this period.

Mostly dry Sunday through Tuesday. Temperatures vary somewhat during this period.

6 to 10 day outlook: Temperatures variable. Precipitation below normal west, near to below normal east.

Central/Southern Plains (Wheat, livestock)

Summary: Mostly dry during the past 24 hours. Temperatures average near to above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry or with only a few very light showers in north and east areas tonight or during Friday. Dry and windy Saturday. Temperatures average above to well above normal today and Friday. Cooler Saturday but still likely above normal.

Mostly dry Sunday through Tuesday. Temperatures average near to mostly above normal during this period.

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures average mostly above to briefly near normal.

Precipitation below normal.

Brazil...Mato Grosso, MGDS and Goias (Soybeans)

Summary: Dry conditions or with only isolated showers, favoring Goias and western Mato Grosso, during the past 24 hours. Temperatures above normal with highs 93-98F in Mato Grosso, 87-94F in southern Goias.

Forecast: Dry or with only a few light showers with locally heavier today.

Moderate to heavy showers and thunderstorms develop over MGDS tomorrow before moving over Mato Grosso during Saturday. Only scattered to widely scattered showers in Goias Friday and Saturday. Temperatures average above normal today, cooler south Friday and northwest areas Saturday.

Episodes of scattered showers and thundershowers Sunday through Tuesday. The activity mat favor Mato Grosso and Goias during this period. Temperatures average near to below normal.

Brazil...Parana, Santa Catarina, Rio Grande Do Sul (Corn, Soybeans)

Summary: Mostly dry during the past 24 hours. Temperatures above normal with highs 90 to 98F yesterday.

Forecast: Scattered light to locally moderate showers south, a few light showers north, today. Moderate to heavy showers and thunderstorms in Parana during Friday, drier in RGDS Friday. Rain may linger in east and north Parana during Saturday, dry elsewhere in the region Saturday. Temperatures average above normal today, cooler Friday, much cooler Saturday.

Chance for scattered showers, at times, in northern Parana Sunday through Tuesday. Dry or with only a few light showers elsewhere in the region during this period. Temperatures average near to below normal Sunday, near to above normal Monday and Tuesday.

Central Argentina: Cordoba, Santa Fe, northern Buenos Aires (Corn and Soybeans)

Summary: Light to moderate showers southeast, light or very light showers elsewhere in the region, during the past 24 hours. Strong winds were reported in the central growing belt yesterday. Temperatures averaged well above normal through central and north areas, cooler through the south. Highs reached 97 to 102F in Cordoba, Santa Fe and Entre Rios yesterday.

Forecast: Mostly dry or with only a few light showers through northeast areas today. Light showers or light rain through southeast areas Friday. Mainly dry Saturday. Temperatures average below normal today, warmer Friday, cooler again Saturday.

Mostly dry Sunday. Dry or with only a few light showers Monday. Dry Tuesday.

Temperatures vary somewhat during this period, warm and cool days.

Joel Burgio can be reached at joel.burgio@dtn.com

(SK)

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Mike Palmerino