DTN Midday Livestock Comments

Live Cattle Futures Hold Narrow Trade Range

Rick Kment
By  Rick Kment , DTN Analyst
(DTN photo by Russ Quinn)
GENERAL COMMENTS:

Firm pressure continues to be seen in nearby feeder cattle and lean hog futures midday Monday. Feeder cattle contracts have pulled back significantly from the sharp early losses that developed at opening bell as traders back away from the cattle on feed report results. Sluggish trade in live cattle markets has left markets mixed in a narrow range. Corn prices are higher in light trade. December corn futures are 6 cents per bushel lower. Stock markets are mixed in light trade. The Dow Jones is 15 points higher while Nasdaq is down 8 point.

LIVE CATTLE:

Live cattle futures remain stuck in a narrowly mixed trading range midday Monday with the focus on increased market activity seen in feeder cattle futures following prices pulling back from the aggressive market losses. October and December live cattle futures are holding narrow gains of 2 to 12 cents per cwt while other nearby contracts are comfortable holding narrow market losses in very sluggish morning trade. The overall lack of pressure in the complex comes while traders look for a sense of optimism from beef demand over the next several weeks which could stimulate additional market activity. Cash cattle markets are undeveloped Monday morning with show lists generally smaller across the country. This focused on offerings in southern states quite a bit smaller. It is likely that bids and offers may not be well established until later in the week with a general stalemate between packers and feeders that could last until the end of the week once again. Beef cut-outs at midday are mixed, $0.71 higher (select) and down $0.54 per cwt (choice) with light movement of 40 total loads reported (18 loads of choice cuts, 9 loads of select cuts, 7 loads of trimmings, 5 loads of ground beef).

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FEEDER CATTLE:

Sharp early losses following the bearish cattle on feed report Friday has quickly eased during morning trade as traders have taken a much more balanced approach to the complex. This is focusing on the expectation that even though traders have known about supply growth over the last several weeks and months, the expectation appears to be that demand will remain strong over the immediate and long term future. Firm pressure is still seen in November and January futures. But buyers have cut losses in have from earlier pressure as feeder cattle markets are trading 40 cents to $1 per cwt lower at midday.

LEAN HOGS:

Light trade continues to be seen across the lean hog futures complex with nearby futures backing away from initial early gains as losses have developed in December through April contracts. This has posted losses of 5 to 72 cents per cwt as traders continue to focus on very light moderate activity through the entire morning while deferred futures are holding gains of 10 to 25 cents per cwt. The overall lack of support in nearby hog markets have little to do with long term market shifts and more to do with overall lack of activity early Monday morning. Cash prices are lower on the National Direct morning cash hog report. The weighted average price fell $0.01 at $64.45 per cwt with the range from $62.00 to $64.45 on 3,193 head reported sold. Cash prices are lower on the Iowa/Minnesota Direct morning cash hog report. The weighted average price fell $2.62 at $62.56 per cwt with the range from $62.00 to $64.00 on 257 head reported sold. The National Pork Plant Report reported 149 loads selling with prices falling $0.19 per cwt. Lean hog index for 10/16 is at $61.00 up $0.76 with a projected two-day index of $62.21, up $1.21.

Rick Kment can be reached at rick.kment@dtn.com

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Rick Kment