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6:00 a.m. CME Globex:

December corn was 1 cent higher, November soybeans were 4 cents higher, and December Chicago (SRW) wheat was fractionally lower.

CME Globex Recap:

A continued rally in the soy complex helped pull corn and wheat higher overnight into Thursday morning. Other commodities also rallied as cotton remained strong, the energy complex was mostly higher, and metals gained ground. All while the U.S. dollar was firm overnight.

OUTSIDE MARKETS:

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 19.97 points (0.1%) higher at 22,6661.64, the NASDAQ Composite gained 2.91 points to 6,534.63, and the S&P 500 added 3.16 points (0.1%) to 2,537.74 Wednesday. DJIA futures were 2 points higher early Thursday morning. Asian markets closed mostly higher with Japan's Nikkei up 1.90 points. European markets were trading mostly lower with London's FTSE 100 up 7.37 points (0.1%), Germany's DAX down 35.37 points (0.2%), and France's CAC 40 off 4.88 points (0.1%). The euro was 0.0001 higher at 1.1762 while the U.S. dollar index added 0.03 to 93.52. December 30-year T-Bonds were 6/32 higher at 152'24 while December gold gained $3.50 to $1,280.30. Crude oil was $0.10 higher at $50.08 while Brent crude rallied $0.38 to $56.18. China's Dalian soybean market was closed while Malaysian palm oil futures were higher again overnight.

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BULL BEAR
1) Spillover buying from soybeans could continue to support corn early Thursday morning. 1) Weekly corn shipments could be disappointing once again.
2) Weekly export shipments could remain strong for soybeans, though still early in the 2017-2018 marketing year. 2)

Rumblings on social media sites are that China's imports of soybeans are slowing already.

3) December Minneapolis wheat remains in position to replace its recent downtrend with a new uptrend on weekly charts. 3) Weekly wheat shipments have already started to slow, with the next set of numbers (for the week ending Thurs, Sept. 28) set for release Thursday.

The weekly Newsom on the Market column can be found on subscription sites only. On DTN Pro it is in News/Town Hall and on MyDTN in News/Columns.

MORE COMMODITY-SPECIFIC COMMENTS

CORN Spillover buying from soybeans finally leaked over into the corn market overnight, helping the December contract to post a modest rally. Dec corn posted almost a 3-cent trading range on volume (futures only) of 7,000 contracts through early Thursday morning. While the market is showing no sign of breaking out of the sideways pattern it has been in since posting contract lows the last day of August, Dec looks as if it could try to crawl back to the midpoint of its trading range near $3.53. It's also possible traders start to get more interested in corn as what is forecast to be a wet harvest weekend across parts of the U.S. Midwest draws near. Fundamentally the market remains bearish with the carry in the December-to-March futures spread leaking out to 13 cents, covering a bearish 74% of calculated full commercial carry. The March-to-May and May-to-July are also covering bearish levels of calculated full commercial carry.

SOYBEANS Technically November soybeans remain in a minor (short-term) downtrend. However, the contract continues to find support at the targeted price of $9.54, the 50% retracement level of the previous uptrend from $9.21 through the high of $9.87. Given the November-to-January futures spread continues to cover a bearish level of calculated full commercial carry, it remains possible that Nov beans could pull back to the 61.8% retracement level of $9.46 1/4. Traders will keep a close eye on weekly export shipment numbers (for the week ending Thursday, September 28), particularly to China. While this is always a good idea, recently there have been rumors floated on social media sites that Chinese imports have slowed due to a host of reasons. The previous week saw China import 24.7 mb (572,600 mt).

WHEAT The wheat complex was mostly higher early Thursday, though the Chicago (SRW) market had just slipped back below unchanged as this analysis was being written. Dec Chicago remains in a minor (short-term) downtrend, so it wouldn't be surprising if the market stayed under pressure to close out the week. On the other hand, December Minneapolis continues to hold above technical price support on its weekly chart near $6.08. If it can do so through Friday's close it would bring the contract to the point of possibly establishing a new secondary (intermediate-term) uptrend.

DTN Cash Change From National Contract Change from
Commodity Index Prev Day Avg. Basis Month Prev Day
Corn: $3.03 -$0.01 -$0.45 Dec $0.004
Soybeans: $8.79 $0.04 -$0.80 Nov $0.010
SRW Wheat: $4.01 -$0.05 -$0.41 Dec $0.012
HRW Wheat: $3.60 -$0.06 -$0.76 Dec -$0.001
HRS Wheat: $5.67 -$0.02 -$0.43 Dec $0.005

Darin Newsom can be reached at darin.newsom@dtn.com

Darin can be followed throughout the day at www.twitter.com\DarinNewsom

(BAS)

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