Market Impact Weather

OMAHA (DTN) -- Mostly favorable conditions for the Midwest, improving conditions for the Delta, no significant rains for the hard red winter wheat area, and some rain for the Northern Plains, are the key weather items for the commodity trade's attention Wednesday.

FROST-FREE MIDWEST PATTERN

The DTN ag weather forecast calls for the Midwest to have mostly favorable conditions for filling, maturing and the early harvest of corn and soybeans. There is no damaging cold weather indicated during the next 10 days.

TROPICAL UPDATE

As of early this morning, the center of Hurricane Jose, with 75-mile-per-hour winds, was located 505 miles east-northeast of the southeast Bahamas. Jose is moving toward the southeast near 8 mph (13 kilometers/hour), but it is expected to make a slow clockwise loop during the next 36 to 48 hours, moving west-northwestward by late Thursday. Jose is expected to then turn north and north-northeast during the weekend. If this track holds, the system would be west of Bermuda and well east-southeast of easternmost North Carolina Sunday night. It is expected to be a tropical storm at that time. There appears to be an upper level low associated with Jose in the Atlantic. This implies a stalling system in the Atlantic Ocean, with some potential for westward movement of Jose late in the 10-day period.

IRMA'S IMPACT ON SOUTHEAST U.S.

Strong winds and heavy rains associated with Tropical Storm Irma affected the Southeast U.S. Monday. The heavy rains affected key growing areas for cotton and peanuts in the region. This is likely to delay fieldwork in the region for a while. However, slow recovery is possible, as there does not appear to be another significant risk for heavy rain, though this time of year this always bears watching.

IRMA'S IMPACT ON FLORIDA AG

Hurricane Irma generated strong wind gusts as well as very heavy to torrential rains this past weekend. This is likely to cause significant losses to unharvested citrus fruit, as well as sugarcane and vegetables. It may also mean damage to citrus trees in some locations. This was a Category 4 hurricane when it made landfall in southwest Florida Saturday.

WARM AND DRY IN SOUTHERN PLAINS

In the Southern Plains, there are mostly favorable warm and dry conditions for fieldwork and planting of hard red winter wheat at this time. Soil moisture continues to diminish under this fair weather pattern. Rainfall will be needed to ensure favorable pre-winter development of wheat once it has been planted. There is some chance for needed rain to occur late in the period, but this is uncertain.

POSSIBLE SHOWERS FOR WEST TEXAS

West Texas will see mostly favorable weather for developing to open-boll cotton in the region with mainly dry weather and hot weather into the weekend. Showers may develop early next week. The U.S. model is picking up on the development of a tropical system south of Mexico. The model brings the moisture associated with this system into the west Texas cotton belt early next week. If real, this would be unfavorable for maturing cotton. The European model does not see this tropical development affecting west Texas, but does show an increase in shower threats later in the outlook period.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR DELTA

Delta crop areas saw rainy, breezy weather yesterday that is unfavorable for mature crops and will likely further delay harvest. Improving conditions are expected during the coming days as the region remains mostly dry and turns warmer during the next five to seven days.

LATE-WEEK NORTHERN PLAINS RAIN

In the Northern Plains, conditions are generally favorable for filling and maturing corn and soybeans at this time. Wet weather is expected later this week, which will be unfavorable for mature crops and harvesting for a time.

BENIGN CHINA PATTERN

Episodes of showers, light rain and a variable temperature pattern will favor late-filling crops but may be somewhat unfavorable for early maturing crops in northeastern China.

INDIA RAINS

Thunderstorms developed yesterday from southwest Madhya Pradesh to northwest Maharashtra in India. The forecast suggests an increase in showers and thunderstorms during the next three to five days over the southern portion of the north India region and the northern portion of the south India area. This area includes key cotton and soybean crops. The rainfall may also move into key sugarcane areas as well.

STILL DRY IN EASTERN AUSTRALIA

In eastern Australia, dryness is of much concern for wheat grown in northern New South Wales and southern Queensland. Wheat in reproductive growth stages is likely being hurt at this time. Rain is needed to stabilize crop prospects for the area. There is no significant rainfall in sight for the driest areas of east-central Australia. This is currently affecting wheat, but may also affect sorghum and cotton if the pattern continues.

Elaine Shein can be reached at elaine.shein@dtn.com

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