DTN Closing Grain Comments

General Comments:

Corn was down 2 1/2 cents in the September contract and down 2 1/4 cents in the December. Soybeans were down 4 1/2 cents in the September contract and down 4 cents in the November. Wheat closed up 1 3/4 cents in the December Chicago contract, up 3/4 cent in the December Kansas City, and down 4 cents in the December Minneapolis contract. The September U.S. dollar index is up 0.03 at 92.17. December gold is up $2.00 at $1,317.30 while September silver is down 3 cents and December copper is up $0.0325. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 29 at 21,785. October crude oil is down $0.34 at $46.23. October heating oil is up $0.0129 while October RBOB gasoline is up $0.0233 and October natural gas is up $0.020.

Corn:

December corn closed down 2 1/4 cents Tuesday, continuing to trickle to new lows in August with cash corn prices now at their lowest prices in nine months, just below $3.00 on DTN's National Corn Index. Rain continues to fall on southeastern Texas and the Gulf Coast, but so far, post-weekend amounts are looking lighter than forecast, which is good news for future grain movement. Late Monday, USDA said 44% of corn was dented and 6% was mature, still below their five-year averages of 51% and 10%, respectively. Corn's good-to-excellent rating was unchanged for the week at 62%. The best chances for rain the next seven days are in the southeastern U.S. and it is not clear how far north the rain might venture into the eastern Midwest. On the demand side, export activity has slowed, but USDA did say Tuesday that 8.9 million bushels (226,000 mt) of U.S. corn were sold to Mexico for 2017-18. With a significant harvest still ahead, December corn remains under bearish pressure and there is no sign yet of commercial buying interest. DTN's National Corn Index closed at $3.00 Monday, priced 36 cents below the September contract and near its lowest price in nine months. In outside markets, the U.S. dollar index traded at new two-year lows early after news broke of North Korea's missile launch, but is now up 0.03 after traders appeared to shake off earlier concerns. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is trading up 28.

Soybeans:

November soybeans closed down 4 cents in another day of quiet, light-volume trading. Every time North Korea launches another missile, as it did over northern Japan early Tuesday, tensions between the U.S. and China get a little more strained. However, it is difficult to say where this is all headed, so reaction from soybean traders has been restrained, so far. Meanwhile, nerves may have been soothed a little when USDA announced a 7.3 million bushel (198,000 mt) sale of U.S. soybeans to China for 2017-18. Late Monday, USDA said 93% of soybeans had set pods and 6% were dropping leaves, in line with their usual paces. The good-to-excellent rating was raised 1 point to 61%, resulting in a 4-point increase in DTN's Soybean Condition Index, to 147. Last week's rain brought slight improvements to soybean crops in the Dakotas, Nebraska, and Iowa, while crops in Illinois and Indiana showed a little worse. Even though weather has not been as cooperative this year, record high soybean plantings of 89.5 million acres are making another record fall harvest possible and that is keeping November soybean prices under bearish pressure. Thanks to commercial interest at these lower prices, November soybeans continue to hold above their June low at $9.07. DTN's National Soybean Index closed at $8.80 Monday, priced 61 cents below the November contract and holding above its lows in June.

Wheat:

December Chicago wheat closed up 1 3/4 cents, supported by a bit of buying encouragement from the commercial side. For most of July and all of August, December Chicago wheat prices have been unable to entice any significant buying as prices fell over $1.60 a bushel from the peak on July 5. The downward slide has been demoralizing to traders who finally turned net short in early August and, even though commercials have been adding to net longs, they have shown no need or desire to bid up front month prices. Now with cash SRW prices back down to their lowest level in four months, it will be interesting to see if commercials start to get more active. Late Monday, USDA reported 76% of spring wheat harvested, ahead of schedule with the seven-day forecast looking dry for the northwestern U.S. and favorable for further progress. The southwestern U.S. Plains have benefitted from recent rains and should be in good shape for planting next month. With winter wheat supplies allowing buyers to be choosy, winter wheat prices remain under pressure, but should be getting cheap enough to entice more commercial buying. DTN's National SRW index closed at $3.74 Monday, priced 26 cents below the September contract and near its lowest price in four months. DTN's National HRW index closed at $3.32, near its lowest price in four months.

Todd Hultman can be reached at todd.hultman@dtn.com

Follow Todd on Twitter @ToddHultman1

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