Market Impact Weather

Harvey's Flooding Concerns Continue

Elaine Shein
By  Elaine Shein , DTN/Progressive Farmer Associate Content Manager
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OMAHA (DTN) -- Heavy rains continuing from Tropical Storm Harvey, mainly favorable conditions for the Midwest, good harvest conditions in the Plains and Prairies, and much cooler weather late in the extended outlook are the key weather items for the commodity trade's attention Tuesday.

COLDER WEATHER IN MIDWEST EXTENDED OUTLOOK

The DTN ag weather forecast calls for mostly favorable conditions for filling and maturing corn and soybeans at this time. No significant freeze threats during the next seven days. Colder weather during the eight- to 10-day period may lead to some frost under the right conditions, but is not expected to cause a freeze.

TROPICAL STORM HARVEY UPDATE

As of early Tuesday morning, the center of Tropical Storm Harvey, with winds of 45 miles per hour, was located 100 miles east-southeast of Port O'Connor, Texas. Harvey is moving toward the east near 3 mph (6 kilometers/hour), and this motion is expected to continue through this morning. A turn toward the northeast, then a continued slow, forward speed is expected later today and tonight. This will be followed by a turn toward the north-northeast on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Harvey is expected to be just offshore of the middle and upper coasts of Texas through tonight, then move inland over the northwestern Gulf coast on Wednesday.

Harvey is expected to produce additional rainfall accumulations of 7 to 13 inches through Friday over parts of the upper Texas coast into southwestern Louisiana. Isolated storm totals may reach 50 inches over the upper Texas coast, including the Houston/Galveston metropolitan area. These rains are currently producing catastrophic and life-threatening flooding over large portions of southeastern Texas and southwestern Louisiana.

HEAVY RAIN IN DELTA

Heavy rains associated with Harvey are expected to shift northward into the main growing areas of the Delta within the next few days. While the axis of the heavy rain is somewhat uncertain, due to uncertainty in the track and speed of the system, it does appear that much of the region will see rainfall between 3 and 8 inches. Heavy rains will be highly unfavorable for maturing crops in the region, especially to open boll cotton. Quality issues will become an increasing concern. Harvest losses may also occur. Winds of around 25 mph and possibly higher may also be of some concern for open boll cotton.

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MOSTLY FAVORABLE OUTLOOK FOR WEST TEXAS

West Texas will see mostly favorable weather for developing cotton in the region at this time, although some areas might benefit more from drier and warmer conditions and more sunshine.

GOOD HARVEST CONDITIONS FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

In the Northern Plains, there are mostly favorable conditions for the harvest of a drought-reduced spring wheat crop at this time. Above-normal temperatures for at least another six or seven days will help advance crop development ahead of any potentially colder weather after that.

WARM, DRY FOR PRAIRIES

For the Canadian Prairies, warm and mainly dry weather are mostly favorable conditions for the harvest of a drought-reduced wheat crop at this time. Mostly favorable conditions continue for maturing canola and harvesting efforts. Late-filling canola will benefit from continued warm weather this week and this weekend. Colder weather next week will bear watching, especially for eastern areas and for Ontario.

COOLER WEATHER IN UKRAINE, RUSSIA

Above- to well-above-normal temperatures with little rainfall through much of Ukraine during the mid-August period, but especially through south and east Ukraine and in south Russia, likely increased stress to filling spring grains and oilseeds and may affect yield prospects. Prior weather during the reproductive growth stages was much more favorable in nature. The region has turned somewhat cooler more recently with some rain as well. This should help ease stress to crops.

MAINLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS IN NORTHEAST CHINA

Conditions mostly favor filling corn and soybeans at this time in northeast China due to prior generous rainfall. However, key soybean growing areas of the north could use more rain at this time. The area may be cooler or much cooler early this week, slowing development of this part of the crop, but little rain is expected during the week. Southern growing areas have already received moderate to heavy rainfall during the past week and should not be as cool.

BENEFICIAL RAINS IN INDIA

Key growing areas for cotton, groundnuts and soybeans are in west Madhya Pradesh to Gujarat and northern Maharashtra. Most of the area had beneficial rains last week, and key growing areas of West Madhya Pradesh had more rain during the weekend. Overall, the Indian monsoon remains outside of northwest India and Pakistan at this time.

Elaine Shein can be reached at elaine.shein@dtn.com

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Elaine Shein

Elaine Shein
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