Market Impact Weather

Cool and Dry Pattern

Bryce Anderson
By  Bryce Anderson , DTN Ag Meteorologist and DTN Analyst
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OMAHA (DTN) -- A cool and dry central U.S. pattern, and a heavy rain threat for the U.S. Gulf Coast, are the key weather items for the commodity trade's attention Wednesday.

DRY AND COOL MIDWEST

The DTN ag weather forecast calls for rainfall over the past five to seven days to improve the condition of filling crops through the western Midwest region, except areas of Nebraska and Minnesota that experienced flooding. The next few days will be drier with no significant moisture. Mostly favorable conditions are in effect for filling crops in the eastern Midwest, although parts of central Illinois could use more rain. The weather will be cool during this period.

MILD SOUTHERN PLAINS TREND

Southern Plains conditions are generally favorable. Light showers cross the region during the next five days.

LIMITED NORTHERN PLAINS RAIN

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In the Northern Plains, mostly favorable conditions for harvest of the drought-reduced spring wheat crop are in effect. Showers in South Dakota and in Minnesota during the five-day period are not overly a concern for mature crops or harvesting and are too late for filling crops.

HEAVY GULF COAST RAIN THREAT

There is high risk that a tropical storm will form over the southwest Gulf of Mexico and head towards the Texas coast during the next 24 to 48 hours. This is associated with the remnants of Tropical Storm Harvey now over the eastern bay of Campeche. This is expected to threaten the oil and gas rigs in the northwest Gulf of Mexico and bring heavy to torrential rain and winds to cotton areas of the coastal bend and the upper Texas coast.

PRAIRIE DRYNESS


In the Canadian Prairies, mostly favorable conditions for the harvest of a drought-reduced wheat crop are in place at this time. Dryness continues to affect late canola while favoring the maturing crop and early harvesting. Warm weather will favor later-filling canola at this time.

WARM TREND IN RUSSIA

Ukraine and Russia have seen a very warm to hot trend in weather during the past two weeks, notably in southeastern Ukraine and southern Russia. The heat may affect row crops, but is too late to cause stress in wheat. The Black Sea region is likely to produce a record wheat crop this year.

BENEFICIAL CHINA PATTERN

Conditions mostly favor reproductive to filling corn and soybeans in northeastern China at this time due to recent generous rainfall. Key soybean growing areas of the north could use more rain; some rain is possible, as well as cooler weather, at the end of this week and early next week. Southern growing areas have already received moderate to heavy rainfall during this week.

FAVORABLE INDIA RAINFALL

Major cotton, groundnut and soybean growing areas of India have had favorable rainfall during the past few days. Some heavy rain has also been noted in far southeastern Pakistan.

Bryce Anderson can be reached at bryce.anderson@dtn.com

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Bryce Anderson

Bryce Anderson
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