DTN Ag Weather Brief

DTN Ag Weather Brief

Joel Burgio
By  Joel Burgio , DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES: HIGH SUN...114 AT DEATH VALLEY CA LOW SUN...28 AT STANLEY(COOP) ID 24 HOUR RAINFALL AT 7PM YESTERDAY...LINCOLN NE 1.93 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

The US and European models are in good agreement today. The mean upper level wind flow pattern will feature a moderate to strong upper level ridge over the western US during the outlook period. The ridge is expected to be centered over the Rockies but should extend eastward into the western plains and northward into the Canadian Prairies. The ridge will promote above normal temperatures and below normal rainfall through the western US, the northern plains and the Canadian Prairies regions. The mean trough during the outlook period will be over the eastern Midwest and the northeast US areas. This trough will lead to near to below normal temperatures over the Midwest region and possibly the Delta as well. Rainfall looks to average near to below normal over the west and central Midwest, near to above normal over the eastern Midwest and possibly the Delta as well. The central and southern plains region may see some rainfall early in the period but should trend warmer and drier later in the period. The southeast is somewhat harder to call. In general it should trend towards warmer than normal temperatures and below normal rainfall. However, we will need to keep an eye on tropical weather as this could change things considerably for this region. There is also a chance cold fronts associated with the mean eastern trough could reach the area and cause some scattered showers to occur.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

TROPICS: Low pressure, associated with the remnants of Harvey, over the west-central Caribbean Sea may develop somewhat before it reaches the coast of Belize or the Yucatan Peninsula early Tuesday. The disturbance is forecast to move into the Bay of Campeche early Wednesday, where environmental conditions are expected to be more conducive for redevelopment. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are likely to spread westward across northern Nicaragua, Honduras, Belize, and the Yucatan Peninsula during the next couple of days.

Low pressure located a couple of hundred miles north-northeast of the southeastern Bahamas is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms that extend southeastward toward Puerto Rico. Environmental conditions are expected to be unfavorable for development of this system during the next day or so while it moves west-northwestward at about 15 mph toward the northern Bahamas and southern Florida. Conditions could become a little more conducive for development later in the week when the system is near Florida or the adjacent waters of the western Atlantic or eastern Gulf of Mexico.

NORTHERN PLAINS (SPRING WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Mostly favorable conditions for the harvest of a drought reduced spring wheat crop at this time. A few showers later this week in east and south areas may favor filling corn and soybeans but in general a below normal rainfall pattern continues.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (Canola/Spring Wheat/Durum Wheat): Later this week rains may increase through central and northern Alberta and northwest Saskatchewan. This maintains favorable conditions for late filling canola but may be unfavorable for maturing canola and for harvesting of spring grains. No significant concerns for the harvest of a drought reduced spring wheat crop elsewhere in the region. Dryness will continue to stress late filling crops in southern areas of the Prairies.

MIDWEST (CORN/SOYBEANS): Rainfall last week and during the weekend and early this week will help to improve the condition of filling crops through the western Midwest region, except areas of Nebraska and Minnesota that experienced flooding. Mostly favorable conditions for filling crops in the eastern Midwest, although parts of central Illinois could use more rain.

WEST TEXAS (COTTON): Showers may occur in the region at times during the next 7 days, along with periods of cooler conditions. Cotton may benefit from the added rainfall, especially through southern growing areas, but would probably prefer more sunshine in some sections.

UKRAINE/RUSSIA (Winter and Spring grains and oilseeds): Above to well above normal temperatures with little rainfall through much of the region during the two weeks but especially through south and east Ukraine and in south Russia. This has likely increased stress to filling spring grains and oilseeds and is probably impacting yield prospects at this time. Prior weather during the reproductive growth stages was much more favorable in nature. This may limit the amount of damage that could occur to corn. However oilseeds, including soybeans and sunflower, are more susceptible to below normal rainfall and above or well above normal temperatures during August.

NORTHEAST CHINA (SOYBEANS/CORN): Conditions mostly favor reproductive to filling corn and soybeans at this time due to recent generous rainfall. However, more rain will be needed to support filling crops as seasonal rains remain below normal. The forecast includes some chance for periodic showers and cooler conditions during this week.

INDIAN MONSOON: Key growing areas for cotton, groundnuts and soybeans area in west Madhya Pradesh to Gujarat and northern Maharashtra. The area had been drier and warmer for much of last week. However, late in the week and during the weekend rain returned to the region. Rain, so far, was heaviest in southern areas of west Madhya Pradesh, in Maharashtra and in eastern areas of Gujarat. This rain was especially beneficial to crop areas of Maharashtra. The forecast suggests that rain will increase in west Gujarat during the next few days.

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AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT): Significant rainfall totals have occurred recently in wheat areas of Western Australia, southern South Australia and Victoria. This will favor over winter development of wheat. More rain is still needs in parts of the area after dryness earlier in the season.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest corn, soybean and winter wheat

Summary...

West: Moderate to locally heavy showers and thunderstorms occurred through southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa during the weekend period. Light to moderate showers and thundershowers with locally heavier elsewhere in the region during this time. Temperatures averaged near to mostly above normal.

East: Isolated to widely scattered light showers with locally heavier occurred in the region mostly early in the weekend period. Temperatures averaged above normal. High temperatures Sunday reached 90-94F through southern Illinois and southern Indiana.

Forecast...

West: Scattered moderate to locally heavy showers and thunderstorms during today into tonight, possibly favoring eastern and southern Iowa, northern Missouri and southeast Nebraska. Mainly dry Tuesday and Wednesday. Temperatures average near normal north and above normal south today, below normal north and near normal south Tuesday, below normal Wednesday.

Mostly dry or with only a few light showers favoring western areas Thursday and Friday. Scattered to widely scattered showers and thundershowers mainly through northern and western areas Saturday. Temperatures average below normal Thursday, near to below normal Friday and Saturday.

East: Scattered moderate to locally heavy showers and thundershowers favoring northern and west-central areas later today or during tonight. Light to locally moderate showers favoring eastern and southern areas during Tuesday. Mainly dry Wednesday. Temperatures average above normal today, near normal north and above normal south Tuesday, near to below normal Wednesday.

Mostly dry Thursday through Saturday. Temperatures average below normal Thursday and Friday, near to below normal Saturday.

6 to 10 day outlook...Temperatures are expected to average near to below normal. Rainfall should average near to below normal west, near to above normal east.

North Plains (Spring Wheat and Corn)

Summary: Dry or with only a few light showers with isolated heavier during the weekend period. Showers mainly over southern North Dakota and in South Dakota and mostly overnight last night. Temperatures averaged near to above normal.

Forecast: Dry or with only a few light showers in southern areas today. Mostly dry Tuesday. Dry or with only a few light showers through northeast locations Wednesday. Temperatures average near to below normal today, above normal west and near to below normal east Tuesday and Wednesday.

Mostly dry or with only a few light showers developing in the west during Thursday. Light showers with locally heavier favoring southern and eastern areas Friday through early Saturday. Temperatures average near to mostly above normal during this period.

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures are expected to average near to mostly above normal. Rainfall near to mostly below normal.

Canadian Prairies (Spring Wheat, Canola)

Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba

Summary: Showers, 0.05-0.35 inch (1-9 mm), occurred through Alberta early in the weekend period. The balance of the region continued dry through the daytime hours of Sunday. A little light rain or drizzle developed overnight from southeast Saskatchewan through Manitoba. Temperatures averaged below normal west and above normal east Saturday, near to below normal Sunday.

Forecast: Dry or with only very light showers possible in Manitoba today and Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday. Temperatures average near to below normal today, near to above normal Tuesday, above normal west and near to below normal east Wednesday.

Light to moderate showers and thundershowers through northern Alberta and northwestern Saskathewan during Thursday. Light showers with locally heavier through southern and eastern Saskatchewan and Manitoba during Friday. Mainly dry Saturday. Temperatures average near to above normal Thursday, below normal northwest and near to above normal elsewhere in the region Friday and Saturday.

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures are expected to average near to mostly above normal during this period. Rainfall near to below normal...although the is a slight chance for near to above normal rainfall through southeast areas.

(SK)

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Joel Burgio