DTN Closing Livestock Comments

Lean Hog Futures Stage Late-Week Rally

(DTN file photo)

GENERAL COMMENTS

The cash cattle trade Friday was limited to scattered sales in parts of Nebraska and Texas. Prices were generally steady with Wednesday's firmness, though generally $1.00 higher than last week. The National hog base closed up $0.32 compared with the Prior Day settlement ($73.00-$82.00, weighted average $79.82). From Friday to Friday livestock futures scored the following changes: Aug LC Up $2.55; Oct LC up $1.68; Aug FC Up $3.90; Sep FC Up $3.75; Aug LH Up $1.82; Oct LH Up $0.27. Corn futures closed about three cents higher, supported by short-covering ahead of next week's WASDE report. The stock market closed with a new record for the eighth consecutive time with the Dow settling 66 points higher at 22,092 and the NASDAQ 11 points higher. The stock market was generally supported by more jobs added in July than anticipated (i.e., 209,000 versus trade expectations close to 180,000).

LIVE CATTLE

Futures closed mostly lower, off 72 to up 22. Prices were checked Friday by late-week long liquidation and cash uncertainty. Positively, spot August successfully found new buying interest early in the week near long-term support just under 112. Negatively, the live board remained stuck in a discounted range held since late spring. Beef cutouts: weak to lower (Choice, $203.61 off $1.55, Select $197.31 off $0.47) on light to moderate demand and offerings (55 loads of choice cuts, 20 loads of select cuts, 07 loads of trimmings, 26 loads of coarse grinds).

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MONDAY'S CASH CATTLE CALL:

Steady to $2.00 lower. Monday's activity will be typically limited to the distribution of new showlists, we suspect the new offering will be steady to somewhat larger than the week just completed.

FEEDER CATTLE

Futures closed lower, off 35-117. Feeders seemed to be pressured by late-week profit-taking and long liquidation. Spot August will start out on Monday just a little below the cash index. CME cash feeder index: 08/03: $151.99, up $1.12.

LEAN HOGS

Futures closed moderately to sharply higher, up 22 to 127. Lean hogs staged an impressive rally to close the week with spot August closing at its highest level since early July. While deferred contracts continued to defend large discounts through the week, bottom-picking interest was now and then evident, suggesting that some wanted to positively reconsider the market's ability to handle greater pork tonnage. For example, December successfully attracted new buying interest early in the week when prices dipped as low as 58.87 (essentially matching the low of late April). However, by the time the trading week was completed, the late-year contract had managed to recover by more than 300 points. Pork cutout: $95.77 (FOB Plant) off $0.98. CME cash lean 08/02: $87.11, off $0.24 (DTN Projected lean index for 08/03: $86.69 off $0.42).

MONDAY'S CASH HOG CALL:

Steady to $1.00 lower. Early week bids are likely to start out cautiously with buyers nervous about product demand and prospects for growing market hog numbers.

For more from John, see http://www.feelofthemarket.com/…

(AG)

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