Market Impact Weather

Variable Midwest Forecast

Bryce Anderson
By  Bryce Anderson , Ag Meteorologist Emeritus
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OMAHA (DTN) -- Variable Midwest conditions over the next 10 days, and a few showers in northeastern China, are the key weather items for the commodity trade's attention Thursday.

MIXED MIDWEST OUTLOOK

The DTN ag weather forecast calls for scattered rains and cooler temperatures over the next five days to favor crops. In the five- to 10-day time frame, heat and dryness return to western and southern areas with renewed stress. Eastern Midwest crops have milder temperatures and limited stress during this time.

BRIEF COOLING FOR SOUTHERN PLAINS

In the Southern Plains, irrigated crops will benefit with temperatures turning cooler following a few scattered showers during the next few days. Drier and hotter conditions after that will return with stress potential to crops.

CONTINUED NORTHERN PLAINS DRYNESS

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Extreme drought continues in the Northern Plains. Milder temperatures over the next few days will offer minimal relief to crops. Spring wheat conditions are the worst in almost 30 years. Reduced yields on corn and soybeans are likely due to drought impact.

DRY WEEK AHEAD FOR SOUTHERN PRAIRIES

In the Canadian Prairies, there is no significant rainfall indicated for a very dry sector of the regions, centered on southwest and central Saskatchewan. The dry period is set to last for at least the next seven days. In addition, episodes of heat also increase stress on canola and wheat, with limited intervals of cooler conditions.

SCATTERED UKRAINE SHOWERS

Scattered showers and cooler conditions were noted in western and central areas of Ukraine and Russia Wednesday and early Thursday. Rainfall is most needed in the chronically dry areas of north-central Ukraine. At least a portion of this area has received or will receive beneficial rainfall. After this round of showers, rain chances focus more on southern and eastern Ukraine and southern Russia.

NORTHEAST CHINA SHOWERS

In northeastern China, rainfall is needed to support favorable reproduction and filling of crops. Showers tending to favor key corn areas the next day or two will help ease concerns for this crop. Another period of favorable showers for corn areas is expected next week, preceded by hot temperatures and followed by somewhat cooler conditions. It is somewhat more uncertain as to how much rain would fall in the major soybean growing areas of Heilongjiang province during the next week.

FAVORABLE WEST INDIA RAIN CHANCE

Western India crop areas of Madhya Pradesh and Gujarat remain in line for useful rain through the end of the week. Showers would be beneficial for soybeans, cotton and groundnuts. However, cotton and sugarcane areas of Maharashtra have a lower chance for needed rain.

DRYNESS STRESS IN AUSTRALIA WHEAT

Dryness is of concern throughout the major wheat-growing areas of Australia. Showers have occurred during the past week days in wheat areas of Western Australia, South Australia, Victoria and southeast Queensland. However, important wheat areas of New South Wales remained dry during this period. More rain is needed in all areas, even in locales that had showers during the past week, after a very dry June.

Bryce Anderson can be reached at bryce.anderson@dtn.com

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Bryce Anderson

Bryce Anderson
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