DTN Early Word Grains
What Weather May Come
December corn was 1 cent lower, November soybeans were 2 cents lower, and September Kansas City (HRW) wheat was 8 cents lower.
CME Globex Recap:A quick look at the grain complex Friday morning shows one market above unchanged, soybean meal, and it barely was. Wheat continued Thursday's strong sell-off with contracts nearing key turning points on weekly charts while corn edged lower once again. Soybeans were also showing losses, by like early Thursday morning selling enthusiasm seemed light at best. Outside commodities (softs, energies, and metals) were mostly lower with solid selling seen in crude oil. Financials were mixed ahead of June employment data with the U.S. dollar index higher and DJIA futures lower.
P[L1] D[0x0] M[300x250] OOP[F] ADUNIT[] T[]
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 158.13 points (0.7%) lower at 21,320.04, the NASDAQ Composite lost 61.39 points (1.0%) to 6,089.46, and the S&P 500 fell 22.79 points (0.9%) to 2,409.75 Thursday. DJIA futures were 12 points lower early Friday morning. Asian markets closed mostly lower with Japan's Nikkei down 64.97 points (0.3%), Hong Kong's Hang Seng losing 124.37 points (0.5%), and China's Shanghai Composite adding 5.51 points (0.2%). European markets were trading lower with London's FTSE 100 off 8.54 points (0.1%), Germany's DAX down 28.75 points (0.2%), and France's CAC 40 losing 21.91 points (0.4%). The euro was 0.0008 lower at 1.1415 while the U.S. dollar index gained 0.16 to 95.97. September 30-year T-Bonds were 7/32 lower at 152'02 while August gold lost $2.40 to $1,220.90. Crude oil was $1.18 lower at $44.34 while Brent crude fell $1.16 to $46.95. China's Dalian soybean and Malaysian palm oil futures were both lower overnight.
| BULL | BEAR | ||
| 1) | Weekly export shipments of corn (for the week ending Thursday, June 29) could come in larger than needed this week to stay ahead of USDA's projected pace. | 1) | Corn's daily chart shows its short-term trend may be rolling over. |
| 2) | Weekly export shipment numbers for soybeans are also expected to be bullish in Friday's holiday-delayed report. | 2) | November soybeans tested short-term resistance overnight before falling back, building toward a signal the minor trend is set to turn down. |
| 3) | The weather forecast remains hot and dry for the Northern Plains, presumably bullish for spring wheat. | 3) | Continued commercial selling is bringing an end to winter wheat's uptrend. |
The weekly Newsom on the Market column can be found on subscription sites only. On DTN Pro it is in News/Town Hall and on MyDTN in News/Columns.
MORE COMMODITY-SPECIFIC COMMENTSCORN There's not much new in the corn market early Friday morning, with the fate of the December contract seemingly tied to whatever weather forecasts may come heading into the weekend. Dec corn is hanging below is previous high of $4.09 while maintaining a price gap between last Friday's high of $3.93 3/4 and this past Monday's low of $3.94 1/4. It's highly likely that one of these resistance/support marks doesn't survive the coming weather market weekend trade beginning with Friday's day session and ending with Monday night's (post NASS weekly Crop Condition report) trade. While the late stages of this overnight session shouldn't show much in the way of activity, Friday's session should see interest pick up as forecasts start to emerge. Delivery of 967 contracts was reported against the July issue, putting the total at 7,519 contracts.
SOYBEANS New-crop November soybeans tested minor technical resistance on its daily chart of $10.04 1/2 overnight before falling back. With daily stochastics showing the contract to be short-term overbought, the recent uptrend in Nov beans looks to be nearing its end from a technical point of view. Fundamentally, Friday's session will likely be determined by weather forecasts heading into another growing season weekend. As of early Friday morning rains continue to be forecast for parts of the eastern Midwest while the west remains mostly dry. The other piece of fundamental news could affect old-crop, the holiday-delayed release of weekly export sales and shipment figures for the week ending Thursday, June 29. These numbers are expected to show soybean shipments holding ahead of pace to meet USDA's demand projection of 2.05 bb. Delivery of 829 contracts was reported against the July issue, putting the total at 4,949 contracts.
WHEAT The bearish writing looks to be on the wall for winter wheat as both Chicago and Kansas City contracts posted strong sell-offs again overnight. Barring an extended sell-off Friday the September contracts should be in position to establish island-tops on weekly charts, depending on a bearish gap open to Sunday evening's trade session. Much of the pressure this week has come from commercial selling, not a surprising development given the degree of the recent rally. Despite forecasts for continued dry weather, Minneapolis spring wheat was also showing another double-digit loss early Friday morning. Delivery of 168 contracts was reported against the July Chicago, putting its total at 900 contracts. Another 350 contracts were reported delivered against the July Kansas City issue increasing its total to 2,006 contracts.
| DTN Cash | Change From | National | Contract | Change from | |
| Commodity | Index | Prev Day | Avg. Basis | Month | Prev Day |
| Corn: | $3.46 | -$0.01 | -$0.45 | Sep | $0.002 |
| Soybeans: | $9.20 | $0.04 | -$0.66 | Aug | -$0.001 |
| SRW Wheat: | $5.07 | -$0.21 | -$0.32 | Sep | $0.000 |
| HRW Wheat: | $4.76 | -$0.21 | -$0.70 | Sep | $0.016 |
| HRS Wheat: | $7.28 | -$0.49 | -$0.41 | Sep | $0.013 |
Darin Newsom can be reached at darin.newsom@dtn.com
Darin can be followed throughout the day at www.twitter.com\DarinNewsom
(KA)
Copyright 2017 DTN/The Progressive Farmer. All rights reserved.