Market Impact Weather

OMAHA (DTN) -- Prospects for hot and dry conditions to spread across the central U.S. in the six-to-10-day time frame, and notable dryness in wheat areas of Australia, are the key weather items for the commodity trade's attention Friday.

POSSIBLE HEAT AND DRYNESS ACROSS MIDWEST

The DTN ag weather forecast calls for generally dry conditions over the next week to ten days in the far western and northwestern Midwest. Temperatures will be very warm to hot, with increased irrigation demand and stress on rain-fed crops. Central and eastern Midwest areas have higher rainfall chances and milder temperatures in the five-day time frame. Forecast model presentations hint at hotter and drier conditions spreading into the central and eastern Midwest as well during the 10-day period. This prospect will be closely watched for possible stress to corn in the pollination phase.

HOTTER FOR SOUTHERN PLAINS

Across the Southern Plains, recent conditions have favored row crop development. The area may be somewhat hotter and drier at times, which may increase the risk to crops in the area.

NO RELIEF IN NORTHERN PLAINS DROUGHT

In the Northern Plains, only limited rain is indicated over the next 10 days. Hot and very hot temperatures will at times greatly increase stress to crops during the period especially in Montana and the western Dakotas.

STILL DRY IN CENTRAL PRAIRIES

A dry pattern in the central Canadian Prairies shows no sign of ending. The main focus for this dry trend is in southwestern and central Saskatchewan. High temperatures and little rainfall during the next week to 10 days will continue to stress crops in this area.

SCATTERED UKRAINE SHOWERS

Ukraine and south Russia will see a round of scattered showers and a more variable temperature pattern to favor crops during the next seven days. Rainfall is still needed in the dry areas of north-central Ukraine. Long-term rainfall remains below 50 percent of normal despite recent shower activity in that areas. Otherwise rainfall has averaged normal to above normal.

WELCOME CHINA RAINFALL

In northeast China, thunderstorms moved into southern Liaoning province during the past 24 hours while the balance of the region continued hot and dry. Scattered to widely scattered thundershowers and a cooling trend are indicated through Sunday. Rainfall should be heaviest with the best coverage through northern locations. This includes a significant portion of the major soybean growing region.

WEAK WEST INDIA MONSOON RAIN

West India crop areas, including Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat, and Maharashtra, have seen very little rain over the past week from the monsoon. Dry and hot conditions are indicated over the next five days as well. The next notable rain chance is in the seven-to-10-day time frame; however, this is uncertain.

WIDESPREAD AUSTRALIA DRYNESS

Dryness is widespread in the major wheat areas of Australia. Western Australia, South Australia, and New South Wales have recorded no more than 20 percent of average rainfall over the past three months. Fears of reduced wheat production are increasing as a result.

Bryce Anderson can be reached at bryce.anderson@dtn.com

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