DTN Midday Grain Comments

All Grains Higher at Midday

David M Fiala
By  David Fiala , DTN Contributing Analyst
(DTN photo by Nick Scalise)

General Comments

The U.S. stock market indices are narrowly mixed. The interest rate products are weak. The dollar index is 84 points lower. Energies are firmer with crude up 80. Livestock trade is lower. Precious metals are mixed.

CORN

Corn trade is 4 to 5 cents higher at midday due to outside market support with the dollar and crude both higher. After the sell off last week many traders have noted the oversold conditions bringing in short profit taking at midday. The USDA reports on Friday also have traders wanting to go to the sidelines and wait for the numbers. The average trade guess for the June USDA Planting Intentions number is 89.82 million acres versus 89.996 in March and 94.004 a year ago. The range of estimates is 89-90.6. The June 1 Quarterly Grain stocks are expected to be at 5.16 billion bushels versus 4.711 billion a year ago. The weekly crop progress report showed conditions unchanged at 67% good to excellent, and 8% poor to very poor when the market was expecting a light bump up; this is also noted supporting trade. July corn futures have support at the new low printed Friday at $3.56 with resistance at the $3.70 10-day moving average.

SOYBEANS

Soybean trade is 8 cents higher at midday and we have been up a dime, meal is $1 higher and soybean oil s up 55 points. The weekly crop progress had conditions unchanged at 66% good to excellent when the trade was looking for a 1-3% increase. This along with friendly outside markets has beans trying to rally today. The USDA June Planting Intentions expectations are limiting upside with the average trade guess at 89.95 million acres versus 89.5 million on the March report and up from 83.4 million a year ago. This would be the first-year soybean acreage surpasses corn and frankly the first year they have been close to each other. The June 1 stocks are expected to be at 981 million bushels versus 872 a year ago. July beans have major support at the $9.00 14-month low made last week, with the 10-day and 20-day at $9.22-$9.24 first resistance area.

WHEAT

Wheat trade is around a nickel higher on the winter wheat contracts and up 15 on Minneapolis; new highs for the move have been scored on Minneapolis. The weak dollar and spillover support from the row crops are helping us see the wheat strength. The average trade guess for the all wheat planted number is at 46.045 million acres versus 46.059 on the March report. The June 1 Quarterly Wheat stocks are expected to be at 1.154 billion versus 976 billion a year ago. So no bullish or bearish surprises are expected on Friday. The spring wheat acreage estimate is at 11.234 versus 11.308 on the March report; the spring wheat acreage number is one area the market will be watching closely. Spring wheat was only rated 40% good to excellent on the weekly report yesterday afternoon. On the July Kansas City contract support is the 100-day at $4.52 with resistance the 10-day at $4.65.

David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne and a registered Advisor.
He can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala

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David Fiala