DTN Ag Weather Brief

DTN Ag Weather Brief

Joel Burgio
By  Joel Burgio , DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist
METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION

The northern branch of the jet stream features a blocking ridge extending from Alaska across northern Canada into Greenland. This is warm/hot pattern for western Canada, mild/warm central, mild/cool in the east. The southern branch of the jet features a trough over the western Gulf of Alaska. A ridge over the eastern Gulf of Alaska. A trough over southwest Canada and the western U.S. A ridge over the Rockies and Plains and a trough over the central and eastern extending off the east coast of the U.S. Subtropical high pressure is located off the northwest coast of Mexico and in the central Gulf of Mexico.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK

The U.S. and European models are in good agreement through 6 days, fair agreement days 7-10. During the 6-10 day period the northern branch of the jet stream will feature a ridge over eastern Alaska and northwest Canada and a trough over north-central and northeast Canada extending across Greenland. This will be a warm/hot pattern for western and central Canada, mild/warm in the east. The southern branch of the jet will feature a trough in the eastern Gulf of Alaska extending into southwest Canada and the northwest U.S. A ridge over the Rockies and plains extending into western portions of the Midwest and south-central Canada and a trough over the eastern U.S. extending into the northwest atlantic. This will be an active rainfall pattern for the southern and eastern Midwest along the boundary zone between the cool weather associated with the trough and the hot weather associated with the ridge. It will be a hotter and drier pattern as you head into the northwest Midwest and Plains under the ridge aloft. This pattern bears watching for its potential impact on corn and spring wheat in the northwest plains and parts of the northwest Midwest.

This pattern will feature near to below temperatures in the Midwest during the next 7 days, variable days 8-10. Rainfall near to above normal during the next 5 days, near to below normal northwest, near to above normal south and east days 6-10. The northern Plains will see variable temperatures. Rainfall mostly below normal. The southern plains will see variable temperatures during the next 5 days, near to above normal days 6-10. Rainfall near to below normal. The Delta states will see near to below normal temperatures through Saturday, near to above normal thereafter. Rainfall near to above normal during the next 5 days, near to below normal days 6-10.

Mike Palmerino

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH MON...121 AT DEATH VALLEY CA

LOW MON...31 AT GOTHIC CO

24 HOUR RAINFALL AT 7PM YESTERDAY...DAYTONA BEACH FL 2.45 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

The US and European models are in fair to good agreement during the outlook period today. I favor a blend between the models.

A weak to moderate short wave trough will drift over the Midwest region early in the outlook period. This likely means widespread shower and thunderstorm activity and mostly below normal temperatures for the first 1-3 days of the period. The rainfall may also occur in eastern areas of the central plains region and northern areas of the Delta region during this time. Later in the period the subtropical ridge builds northward over the southern and central plains area and noses into the southwestern Midwest region. This likely will mean hot and dry weather for the central and south plains region. It should also mean a turn to above normal temperatures over the Midwest, especially the western Midwest, and a drop off, somewhat, in the chances for scattered thundershowers.

Today's extended range outlook covering the 11 to 16 day period, July 7-12, shows significant upper level ridging ranging between the central plains area through the Midwest to the east-central US. This is a new development from yesterday and is therefore considered highly uncertain. The strong jet stream this season is likely to limit the amount of time that any US ridging can remain far enough north to impact the Midwest or the northern plains regions but we have already seen this season where brief periods of hot weather are possible in these locations.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

TROPICAL: There are no tropical cyclones in the Atlantic at this time.

DELTA: Rain late last week due to post tropical depression Cindy. This will maintain adequate to surplus moisture for crops and is favorable, except for areas of local flooding.

MIDWEST (CORN/SOYBEANS): Rain and scattered thunderstorms during this week will maintain mostly favorable conditions for developing corn and soybeans, especially as temperatures return to more normal levels.

NORTHERN PLAINS (SPRING WHEAT/CORN): More rain would benefit developing corn, soybeans and spring wheat. However the lack of any hot weather limits stress.

Some beneficial shower activity is possible during the next few days.

CENTRAL/SOUTH PLAINS (Wheat/Corn/Sorghum): No significant concerns for mature wheat and the wheat harvest at this time, although showers may at times cause slow downs to the harvest. A cooler period will favor developing corn and sorghum in the region during this week. Hot weather is expected next week.

WEST TEXAS (COTTON): Mainly dry or with only a few light showers during the next 7 to 10 days. Temperatures above to well above normal. Dryland fields could use more rain to support favorable development.

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CANADIAN PRAIRIES (Canola/Spring Wheat): Showers during the week and more seasonal temperatures will favor crops, except in the northwest where fieldwork delays are still of some concern.

NORTHEAST CHINA (SOYBEANS/CORN): More rain is needed for favorable development of corn and soybeans, especially in the western crop areas. Drier and hotter weather early this week while late in the week we may see some increase in scattered shower activity and less hot weather. Rainfall looks to average below normal during the next ten days.

INDIAN MONSOON: The Monsoon has moved north of Gujarat and all but the extreme north portion of Madhya Pradesh but is still just east and south of Uttar Pradesh. This is at least 10 days behind normal development but it appears to be improving. Improvement is expected during this week and there is a good chance for needed rains to occur in soybean, groundnut and cotton areas of west-central India. We should also see increasing shower activity reach into Uttar Pradesh during the week.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest corn, soybean and winter wheat

Summary...

West: Scattered light showers south, fair central and north, during the past 24 hours. Temperatures averaged below to well below normal yesterday.

East: Sprinkles and very light showers through central and northeast areas during the past 24 hours. Drier elsewhere in the region. Temperatures averaged below to well below normal yesterday.

Forecast...

West: Mostly dry during the daytime hours of today. Scattered thundershowers develop through western and northern areas tonight. Scattered to widely scattered thundershowers favoring eastern and southern areas during Wednesday.

Moderate to heavy thunderstorms are expected during Thursday, possibly favoring eastern and southern Iowa and northern Missouri. Temperatures average below normal today, near to above normal Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday.

Dry or with only a few light showers favoring north and southeast areas Friday. Mostly dry Saturday. Scattered thundershowers Sunday, possibly favoring western and southern Iowa and northern Missouri. Temperatures average below normal during this period.

East: Mostly dry today. Scattered thundershowers develop through northwest and north areas tomorrow or tomorrow night. Scattered showers and thunderstorms favoring northern and west-central areas during Thursday or Thursday night.

Temperatures average below normal today, near to below normal Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday.

Scattered to widely scattered showers and thundershowers favoring eastern and southern areas during Friday. Showers may linger in the southeast areas Saturday. Dry or with only a few light showers Sunday. Temperatures average near to below normal Friday, below normal Saturday and Sunday.

6 to 10 day outlook...Temperatures are expected to average below normal early in this period, above normal west and near normal east late in the period.

Rainfall should average near to above normal.

North Plains (Spring Wheat and Corn)

Summary: Mostly dry yesterday. Temperatures averaged above normal in Montana, below normal elsewhere in the region, well below normal through eastern areas.

Forecast: Scattered light showers with locally heavier favoring north-central and east areas today or tonight. Showers may linger in northeast areas, drier elsewhere in the region, during Wednesday. A few light showers may redevelop during Thursday. Temperatures average near to above normal west and central areas and below normal east today, near to below normal tomorrow, below normal Thursday.

Chance for light showers with locally heavier through northeast areas Friday or Friday night. Mainly dry during Saturday. Dry or with only a few light showers Sunday. Temperatures average below normal Friday and Saturday, near to above normal west and near to below normal east Sunday.

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures are expected to average near to mostly above normal during this period. Rainfall should average near to below normal.

Central/Southern Plains (Winter Wheat, Corn, Soybean, Sorghum)

Summary: A few light showers with isolated heavier in southern Nebraska, eastern Kansas, northern Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle during the past 24 hours. Mostly dry otherwise. Temperatures averaged near normal in eastern Colorado, below normal elsewhere in the region.

Forecast: Mostly dry or with only a few light showers with locally heavier in northwest areas today or tonight, in northeast locations during Wednesday or Wednesday night. A few scattered thundershowers may develop Thursday. These look to favor northeast areas but may also occur in central locations as well.

Temperatures average above normal in the west and below normal east today, above normal Wednesday, near to below normal north and above normal central and south Thursday.

Scattered showers and thundershowers through southeast and south-central areas Friday into Saturday. Scattered showers and thundershowers through northeast and east-central areas Sunday. Temperatures average below normal north and west and near normal southeast Friday, near to below normal north and near to above normal south Saturday, above normal west and near normal east Sunday.

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures are expected to average near to above normal early in the period, above to possibly well above normal late in the period.

Rainfall should average near to above normal north and east, mainly due to activity early in the period. Rainfall should average near to mostly below normal through the west-central and southwest areas.

Canadian Prairies (Canola/Spring Wheat)

Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba

Summary: Light showers with locally heavier occurred through northwest and north areas of Alberta during the past 24 hours. Mostly dry elsewhere in the region during this time. Temperatures averaged above normal through western areas, below normal through the east.

Forecast: Episodes of light to moderate showers and thundershowers in southeast Saskatchewan and Manitoba during today through Thursday. Light rain or showers through northern Alberta today. Sprinkles and light showers through southern and eastern Alberta and western Saskatchewan Wednesday. Mainly dry through the western areas Thursday. Temperatures average near to above normal today, below normal Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday.

Light showers in Manitoba, drier elsewhere in the region, during Friday. Dry or with only a few light showers Saturday. Dry Sunday. Temperatures average below normal Friday and Saturday, above normal west and near normal east Sunday.

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures are expected to average above normal early in this period, near to below normal west and near to above normal east late in the period. Rainfall near to above normal west and north, near to below normal southeast.

Joel Burgio

(SK)

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Joel Burgio