DTN Early Word Grains
Bouncing Beans
December corn was 2 cents higher, November soybeans were 8 cents higher, and July Kansas City (HRW) wheat was 3 cents higher.
CME Globex Recap:The overnight session saw soybeans bounce off recent lows, buoyed by Monday afternoon's weekly crop condition numbers from NASS. Similarly, Minneapolis spring wheat continued to move higher as well. Corn and winter wheat were more subdued, but went along for the ride anyway. Outside markets were also higher with gains seen in metals, energies and softs. Meanwhile, both the U.S. dollar index and DJIA futures were lower to start the day.
OUTSIDE MARKETS:The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 14.79 points higher at 21,409.55, the NASDAQ Composite lost 18.10 points (0.3%) to 6,247.15, and the S&P 500 added 0.77 point to 2,439.07 Monday. DJIA futures were 17 points lower early Tuesday morning. Asian markets closed mixed with Japan's Nikkei up 71.74 points (0.4%), Hong Kong's Hang Seng off 31.90 points (0.1%), and China's Shanghai Composite adding 5.75 points (0.2%). European markets were trading mostly lower with London's FTSE 100 down 4.32 points, Germany's DAX off 51.06 points (0.4%), and France's CAC 40 down 25.40 points (0.5%). The euro was 0.0074 higher at 1.1255 while the U.S. dollar index was 0.43 lower at 96.98. September 30-year T-Bonds were 9/32 lower at 156'20 while August gold rallied $5.60 to $1,252.00. Crude oil was $0.43 higher at $43.81 while Brent crude gained $0.51 to $46.34. China's Dalian soybean futures were lower while Malaysian palm oil futures were closed again overnight.
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| 1) | Morning radar maps are clear, likely providing light support to the corn market. | 1) | NASS' crop condition numbers continue to indicate corn is on pace for possible trendline national average yield. |
| 2) | NASS' weekly crop condition numbers released Monday resulted in a lower DTN Crop Condition Index rating for soybeans. | 2) | Soybeans long-term monthly chart continues to show a downtrend. |
| 3) | Minneapolis spring wheat continues to extend its uptrend. | 3) | Winter wheat harvest continues to move along, possibly putting increased commercial pressure on the Chicago and Kansas City markets. |
The weekly Newsom on the Market column can be found on subscription sites only. On DTN Pro it is in News/Town Hall and on MyDTN in News/Columns.
MORE COMMODITY-SPECIFIC COMMENTSCORN December corn is in position to establish a minor (short-term) uptrend on its daily chart Tuesday, if it can hold or add to overnight gains during Tuesday's session. Support could come from spillover buying tied to new-crop soybeans, as well as a morning weather radar map devoid of rain. Monday afternoon saw NASS' latest crop condition numbers remain unchanged, leaving the DTN Crop Condition Index rating at 161 points. This year's ratings continue to track those seen in 2013 when final national average yield came in reportedly at 158.1 bpa, on par with projected trendline yield of 157.6 bpa. DTN's trendline yield for the 2017 crop is 166.3 bpa.
SOYBEANS Soybeans posted a solid rally overnight into Tuesday morning, sparked by lower weekly crop condition numbers from NASS. These numbers resulted in a DTN Crop Condition Index rating of 158 points, down 3 points from the previous week and off 16 points for the same week the previous year. For now, 2017's index ratings continue to run near what was seen in 2015 when the U.S. crop reportedly saw a national average yield of 48 bpa. USDA has on the books, through its latest June Crop Production report, a yield estimate of 48 bpa. Technically the market could see a minor (short-term) bounce, though its major (long-term) trend on its monthly chart remains down.
WHEAT The wheat complex was higher to start the day, once again led by Minneapolis spring wheat. NASS' latest weekly crop condition numbers decreased for spring wheat, again, sparking continued buying interest overnight. As for winter wheat, harvest progress was estimated at 41% completed, slightly ahead of the 39% 5-year average. Look for Tuesday's session to see light buying interest continue in winter wheat as markets recover from Monday's sell-off, with support also coming from the lower U.S. dollar index.
| DTN Cash | Change From | National | Contract | Change from | |
| Commodity | Index | Prev Day | Avg. Basis | Month | Prev Day |
| Corn: | $3.21 | $0.02 | -$0.38 | Jul | $0.007 |
| Soybeans: | $8.43 | $0.03 | -$0.64 | Jul | $0.003 |
| SRW Wheat: | $4.30 | -$0.09 | -$0.20 | Jul | $0.005 |
| HRW Wheat: | $3.93 | -$0.10 | -$0.60 | Jul | $0.011 |
| HRS Wheat: | $6.25 | $0.03 | -$0.39 | Jul | $0.007 |
Darin Newsom can be reached at darin.newsom@dtn.com
Darin can be followed throughout the day at www.twitter.com\DarinNewsom
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