DTN Closing Grain Comments

New Contract High in Minneapolis Wheat

Todd Hultman
By  Todd Hultman , DTN Lead Analyst
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(DTN illustration by Nick Scalise)

General Comments:

Corn was up 3 3/4 cents in the July contract and up 3 1/2 cents in the December. Soybeans were up 1 1/4 cents in the July contract and up 3/4 cent in the November. Wheat closed up 11 cents in the July Chicago contract, up 14 1/4 cents in the July Kansas City and up 27 1/2 cents in the July Minneapolis contract. The June U.S. dollar index is down 0.12 at 97.00. August gold is up $1.60 at $1,270.50 while July silver is down 7 cents and July copper is down $0.0170. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 92 at 21,328. July crude oil is up $0.22 at $46.30. July heating oil is up $0.0159 while July RBOB gasoline is up $0.0064 and July natural gas is down $0.058.

Corn:

December corn closed up 3 1/2 cents, benefitting from Tuesday's higher wheat prices and ongoing concerns about this year's crop conditions. Late Monday, USDA said 94% of corn was emerged and 67% was rated either good or excellent, putting DTN's Corn Condition Index at a four-year low of 159. Poor-to-very poor ratings were highest in Indiana, South Dakota and Illinois. The five-day forecast has moderate to heavy rain amounts expected for all but the western edge of the Corn Belt while most of the central Corn Belt will have high temperatures in the 90s. Meanwhile, Brazil's corn crop is doing well and will soon be competing for export business. Monday's wetter forecast set corn prices back, but the trend in December corn still remains up after last week's breakout. DTN's National Corn Index closed at $3.38 Monday, priced 39 cents below the July contract and down from its highest price in 11 months. In outside markets, the June U.S. dollar index is down 0.12 with the Federal Reserve's next rate decision due out Wednesday afternoon.

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Soybeans:

November soybeans closed up 3/4 cent Tuesday, erasing part of Monday's loss with help from commercial buying in soybean meal, a sign of decent demand at these lower prices. Late Monday, USDA said 92% of soybeans were planted, 77% were emerged, and 66% were rated good or excellent. DTN's first Soybean Condition Index of 2017 is starting at a four-year low of 162 with South Dakota showing the highest poor-to-very poor rating of 15%. This week's forecast for wetter weather around most of the Midwest is generally favorable while temperatures will be hotter, but all the rain may not necessarily be welcome after this year's wet spring. It is still early, but so far, November soybeans remain in a downtrend with record soybean plantings expected to come out of USDA's Acreage report on June 30. DTN's National Soybean Index closed at $8.66 Monday, priced 65 cents below the July contract and near its lowest prices in over a year.

Wheat:

All three wheats closed higher Tuesday, led once again by buying in Minneapolis wheat after USDA dropped its good-to-excellent crop rating for spring wheat from 55% to 45% late Monday. DTN's Spring Wheat Condition Index now stands at 105, the lowest reading for this time of year since 1988 with 57% of South Dakota's crops and 31% of Montana's crops rated either poor or very poor. North Dakota caught some rain early Tuesday and more is expected for North Dakota and Montana the next seven days, but the forecast for South Dakota remains mostly dry. USDA said half of the winter wheat crop was rated good or excellent, resulting in a DTN Winter Wheat Condition Index of 121, which is down from 153 a year ago, but not as bad as the 100-point reading in 2015. Winter wheat is 17% harvested, but this will be a hot week in the southwestern Plains as harvest in Kansas starts to pick up. July Minneapolis wheat remains in an uptrend with Tuesday's trade setting a new contract high. July Kansas City wheat continues to hold sideways while traders pay attention to harvest reports. DTN's National SRW index closed at $4.09 Monday, priced 25 cents below the July contract and down from its highest price in 11 months. DTN's National HRW index closed at $3.72, also down from its highest price in 11 months.

Todd Hultman can be reached at todd.hultman@dtn.com

Follow Todd Hultman on Twitter @ToddHultman1

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Todd Hultman