DTN Closing Livestock Comments

Cash Cattle Trade Slow to Develop Friday Afternoon

Rick Kment
By  Rick Kment , DTN Analyst
(DTN file photo)

GENERAL COMMENTS

From Friday to Friday, livestock futures scored the following changes: Jun LC, Up $0.43; Aug LC, Off $2.20; Aug FC, Off $4.55; Sep FC, Off $4.20; Jun LH, Up $1.25; Jul LH, Up $0.73. Cash cattle trade remained sluggish through the afternoon Friday with activity likely to stretch into late day as packers and feeders were unable to come to early terms. Light trade was seen in the North through the day Friday with prices seen at $218 to $220 per cwt dressed basis and $136 to $137 live basis. But, at the time these comments were posted, trade was still sluggish in the South with a few sales in Kansas developing at $137 per cwt, which is $1 per cwt lower than last week's state average. Bids were holding at $134 to $136 live basis. Asking prices remained firm, which may cause additional focus on higher late-day money if packers desired to gain access to cattle. The cattle sold were seen steady to $4 per cwt higher than last week. According to the closing report, the national hog base is $0.11 higher compared with the Prior Day settlement ($73.00-$78.50) weighted average $76.61. Corn futures moved higher in light activity. July futures were 2 cents higher Friday. The Dow Jones Index is 89 points higher with the Nasdaq down 113 points.

LIVE CATTLE

Livestock futures traded mostly lower following late-week market-positioning across the complex ($0.52 lower to $0.02 higher). Live cattle futures traded mostly higher during early trade with buyer support expected to be seen in cash cattle trade. But late-day position-taking eroded early support across the complex. This could limit follow-through support in the live cattle market. Beef cut-outs: higher, $0.28 higher (select, $220.29) to up $0.82 (choice, $251.21) with light demand and offerings (65 loads of choice cuts, 23 loads of select cuts, 12 loads of trimmings, 16 loads of coarse grinds).

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MONDAY'S CASH CATTLE CALL:

Steady. Light trade started to develop in the North at $220 to $221 dressed basis. This is $4 per cwt higher than last week's dressed average price level. Although activity in the South was undeveloped at the time these comments were posted, more trade was likely to be seen in the North also. More trade volume was possible late Friday.

FEEDER CATTLE

Following choppy market moves through Friday's trade activity, buyer support slowly developed through the end of the session (0.22 to 0.67 higher). The ability to push prices higher following the volatile market shifts during the week points to end-of-the-week short-covering activity developing more than any other factor. August futures posted a 22-cent gain, closing at $154.17 per cwt with the focus on firmness in cash cattle activity and the potential for additional strong commercial buyer support to redevelop early next week in the live cattle market. CME cash feeder index: 6/8: $154.91, up $0.90.

LEAN HOGS

Moderate buyer support redeveloped across the entire lean hog futures complex with nearby summer contracts moving to new contract highs as firm gains redeveloped across the complex. Steady buying was seen across the entire complex (20 to 65 cent higher). Summer contracts closed above $82 per cwt, setting new contract highs through the end of the week. Even though trade remained light through all contracts, support remained firm across the market. Carcass trickled lower. Triple-digit losses in loins and ribs put pressure on the entire complex. Strong gains were seen in ham and belly values, but sluggish moves developed in the rest of primals. Pork cut-out: $92.45 down $0.09. CME cash lean index for 6/7: $79.41, up $0.61. DTN Projected lean index for 6/8 $80.02, up $0.61.

MONDAY'S CASH HOG CALL

Steady to $1 higher. Trade early next week is expected to continue in the same direction as seen through the end of the week with prices expected to be steady to firm in most locations with the fill range steady to higher. The overall movement of strong fundamental and technical support during mid-June is likely to spark additional overall buyer support Monday as procurement levels are likely to move back to normal levels following a sluggish end-of-the-week run.

Rick Kment can be reached at rick.kment@dtn.com

(CZ)

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Rick Kment