DTN Closing Grain Comments

General Comments:

Corn was up 4 1/4 cents in the July contract and up 3 3/4 cents in the December. Soybeans were up 1 1/2 cents in the July contract and up 3 3/4 cents in the November. Wheat closed up 6 1/4 cents in the July Chicago contract, up 8 cents in the July Kansas City, and up 7 1/4 cents in the July Minneapolis contract. The June U.S. dollar index is down 0.24 at 96.51. August gold is up $14.10 at $1,296.80 while July silver is up 11 cents and July copper is down $0.0105. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 27 at 21,157. July crude oil is up $0.75 at $48.15. July heating oil is up $0.0078 while July RBOB gasoline is up $0.0159 and July natural gas is up $0.056.

Corn:

July corn closed up 4 1/4 cents Tuesday, influenced by a bullish day of trading in wheat, which is something we don't hear very often. Late Monday, USDA said 96% of corn was planted and 86% was emerged; 68% of corn rated either good or excellent, up 3 percentage points from a week ago. DTN's Corn Condition Index jumped up seven points to 165, but is still the lowest in four years. Most Midwestern states showed slight improvement, but 17% of Indiana corn remained poor or very poor. While it is still difficult to tell how many corn acres survived planting, Brazil's second corn crop is said to be doing very well and USDA will make its next estimate on Friday, June 9. Dow Jones' survey of analysts expects USDA will estimate 96.5 mmt, but private estimates last week went as high as 106.4 mmt. So far, July corn continues to trade in a sideways range, under the April high of $3.79 1/2. DTN's National Corn Index closed at $3.36 Monday, priced 37 cents below the July contract and near its highest price in twelve weeks. In outside markets, the June U.S. dollar index is down 0.24 and August gold is up $14.10, not showing much concern about the possibility of a Fed rate hike next week.

Soybeans:

July soybeans closed up 1 1/2 cents, helped by Tuesday's bullish mood in grains and commodities in general, but not having a specific bullish reason of their own to excite prices higher yet. Late Monday, USDA said 83% of soybeans were planted and 58% had emerged, in line with their five-year averages. Corn's slightly higher crop rating also suggests improvement for soybean conditions and much is riding on the size of this year's soybean planting, currently estimated at a record high 89.5 million acres. Dow Jones' survey of analysts expects USDA's estimate of new-crop ending stocks to rise, from 480 million to 498 million bushels on Friday, but the bigger concern will be USDA's acreage estimate on June 30. With soybean supplies expected to increase in 2017-18, July soybeans remain in a downtrend. DTN's National Soybean Index closed at $8.556 Monday, priced 66 cents below the July contract and near its lowest prices in over a year.

Wheat:

July Chicago wheat closed up 6 1/4 cents and July Minneapolis wheat was up 9 3/4 cents, boosted by concerns of worsening crop conditions. Late Monday, USDA said 87% of winter wheat is headed and 10% has already been harvested. USDA's good-to-excellent rating for winter wheat slipped from 50% to 49%, resulting in a 3-point drop in DTN's Winter Wheat Condition Index to 122. 38% of South Dakota and 26% of Kansas winter wheat were rated poor-to-very-poor. USDA also said 90% of spring wheat had emerged, but dropped the good-to-excellent rating from 62% to 55%. In response, DTN's Spring Wheat Condition Index fell from 158 to 137, the lowest reading for this time of year in at least 23 years. South Dakota showed the worst spring wheat conditions with 32% of the crop rated either poor or very poor. Since all of this happening in a year when plantings are down, U.S. wheat production is headed lower, but keep in mind the survey behind Friday's WASDE report only deals with winter wheat. So far, July Chicago wheat continues to trade within a sideways range while July Minneapolis wheat continues to trend higher. DTN's National SRW index closed at $3.98 Monday, priced 32 cents below the July contract and down from its highest price in twelve weeks. DTN's National HRW index closed at $3.55, down from its highest price in 11 months.

Todd Hultman can be reached at todd.hultman@dtn.com

Follow Todd Hultman on Twitter @ToddHultman1

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