DTN Ag Weather Brief

DTN Ag Weather Brief

Joel Burgio
By  Joel Burgio , DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist
NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH THU...110 AT DEATH VALLEY CA

LOW THU...25 AT WEST MT AND WEST YELLOWSTONE GATE MT

24 HOUR RAINFALL AT 7PM YESTERDAY...BUFFALO NY 1.81 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

The US and European models are in fair to good agreement for only about 1-2 days of the outlook period, fair to poor agreement after that. I favor today's US model.

The strong upper level trough is shown centered over Ontario and Quebec next Wednesday. This trough moves slowly east before dipping southward over the northeast US Thursday through Sunday. A weak trough moves into the western US early in the outlook period. This trough moves south over the Rockies before moving east across the central and southern plains and into the lower Miss river valley during the outlook period. The mean map covering 8-10 days reflects the split jet stream pattern. A weak southern branch jet stream is show cutting west to east across the southern plains and the lower Miss river valley. This suggests a continued active weather pattern for the central and southern US. Temperatures near to below normal due mostly to days when daytime highs are cooler with the showers moving through. We also note a trough-ridge-trough pattern over the northern US region. This should maintain the drier weather pattern for the northern plains and the south and east Canadian Prairies. Short wave troughs moving southward east of the weak ridge should continue to bring rain chances into the Midwest, maintaining the near to above normal rainfall pattern there as well.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

MIDWEST (CORN/SOYBEANS/WHEAT): Changeable temperatures during this time of the year usually means periods of rain. Episodes of wet weather will slow the planting effort and the effort to replant corn after perior heavy rains. Cool weather will, at times, slow germination and early development.

NORTHERN PLAINS (SPRING WHEAT/CORN): No significant delays to the final planting effort are expected. A variable temperature pattern, cooler early and warmer late. Mostly favorable temperatures for germination and early development.

CENTRAL/SOUTH PLAINS (Wheat/Corn/Sorghum): Episodes of scattered showers will maintain adequate to surplus soil moisture for reproductive to filling wheat but may be unfavorable for maturing wheat and could promote more disease pressure. Delays to planting corn and sorghum may occur at times but in general a favorable weather pattern for corn and sorghum development.

DELTA/SOUTHEAST (CORN, SOYBEAN, COTTON, PEANUTS): Episodes of moderate to heavy showers and thunderstorms in the Delta will maintain adequate to surplus soil moisture for developing crops while leading to some delay in final planting efforts and promoting local flooding. Heavy to very heavy rains have recently been reported in the southern Delta across into Alabama and parts of Georgia.

This rain was needed after a dry early spring period but the excessive nature of the rain has likely caused flooding.

WEST TEXAS (COTTON): Conditions favor planting progress but rainfall is needed in dryland fields to support favorable early development. Hot temperatures lasting another couple of days will favor development of earlier planted cotton. Cooler weather returns after that. Showers are expected in the region for much of next week.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (Canola/Spring Wheat): Rain during this week through Alberta and west and north Saskatchewan is expected to cause delays to seasonal fieldwork. This includes harvesting of last seasons crops and planting this years crops. Showers elsewhere in the region will favor development of recently planted crops while causing only minor planting delays. Warmer weather during the coming days will favor germination and development of recently planted crops.

UKRAINE/SOUTH RUSSIA (WINTER WHEAT/SPRING GRAINS/CORN/SUNFLOWER): A variable temperature pattern with episodes of scattered showers will favor winter and spring grains and oilseeds. Reports suggest that dryness is still of some concern through north-central Ukraine. This area should see showers at times but will probably need more rain to end concerns.

WEST EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT AND RAPESEED, CORN AND SUNFLOWER): A weak upper level ridge has moved into western Europe this week. This will promote a period of much warmer temperatures. This should be favorable after recent rains in the region, at least for awhile. The ridge slowly shifts into central Europe before settling southward during the next 5-7 days. Once it moves far enough to the east and south we should see increasing shower activity for England, France and eventually Germany.

CHINA (SOYBEANS/CORN): A variable temperature pattern continues for the key northeast China crop belt. Temperatures range from above to below normal during the next 7 days. Periodic showers will favor planting and early development, especially through north and east areas. Soil moisture has recently improved after good rains hit the area but more rain will be needed to maintain this improvement, especially during periods of above normal temperatures.

INDIAN MONSOON: Satellite pictures indicate increasing shower activity through the Bay of Bengal while in the Arabian Sea the activity has been diminishing.

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The Indian Met department shows the leading edge of the Monsoon located over southern Sri Lanka and covering the southeast Bay of Bengal. This is only slightly behind normal. The forecast suggests that a disturbance may form in the central Bay of Bengal and head towards Myanmar. This would likely mean that after a few more days the activity in southern India would diminish as the disturbance would pull the moisture in the Bay of Bengal towards Myanmar.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest corn, soybean and winter wheat

Summary...

West: Light rain is moving into northwestern Missouri early this morning. The balance of the region was dry during the past 24 hours. Temperatures averaged below normal during the morning, near to mostly below normal during the afternoon.

East: Dry or with only a little light rain or drizzle through southeast and east-central areas during the past 24 hours. Temperatures averaged slightly below to below normal yesterday.

Forecast...

West: Light to locally moderate showers through northern Missouri and southeast Iowa during today. Light to moderate showers through southern Iowa and in Missouri during Saturday. Mainly dry Sunday. Temperatures average near to slightly below normal.

Mostly dry Monday and Tuesday. Dry or with only a few light showers possible during Wednesday. Temperatures average near to below normal.

East: Light to locally moderate showers and thundershowers develop later today or during tonight and favor northern areas. Scattered moderate to locally heavy showers and thundershowers favoring southern areas during Saturday. Light to locally moderate showers favoring eastern areas Sunday. Temperatures average near to slightly above normal south and east, near to slightly below normal northwest.

Mostly dry Monday and Tuesday. Chance for showers developing during Wednesday or Wednesday night. Temperatures average near to below normal south, below normal north.

6 to 10 day outlook...Temperatures are expected to average near to below normal early in the period, near to above normal west and near to below normal east late in the period. Rainfall should average near to above normal.

North Plains (Spring Wheat and Corn)

Summary: Dry or with only very light showers favoring southeast and far west areas during the past 24 hours. Temperatures averaged near to above normal south, near to below normal north.

Forecast: Mostly dry or with only a few light showers in southern areas today.

Dry Saturday. Dry or with only a few light showers developing in northeast areas Sunday. Temperatures average near to below normal west, mostly below normal east.

Mostly dry Monday and Tuesday. Dry or with only a few light showers in the west and south areas Wednesday. Temperatures average near to above normal in Montana, near to below normal in the western Dakotas, mostly below normal in the eastern Dakotas and north Minnesota.

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures are expected to average near to above normal west and near to below normal east early in the period, above to well above normal late in the period. Rainfall should average near to below normal.

Central/Southern Plains (Winter Wheat, Corn, Soybean, Sorghum)

Summary: Showers and a few locally heavy thunderstorms were reported yesterday or overnight in northeast Colorado, southwest Nebraska and across northern Kansas. Strong winds were reported with these thunderstorms. Temperatures averaged above normal west and south areas...well above normal in the Texas Panhandle and north Texas. Temperatures near to below normal northeast areas.

Forecast: Thunderstorms, locally heavy and possibly severe, in northeast Colorado, northwest Kansas and southwest Nebraska late today or during tonight.

Scattered to widely scattered light to moderate showers with locally heavier tomorrow. Mainly dry during Sunday. Temperatures averaged above normal east and south and near to below normal northwest today and Saturday. Temperatures average well above normal from south Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle southward during this time. Temperatures turn cooler during Sunday.

Mostly dry Monday. Dry or with only a few light showers with locally heavier Tuesday, mainly in the south. Scattered showers and thunderstorms south, fair north, during Wednesday. Temperatures average near to above normal west and south and near to below normal northeast during this period.

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures are expected to average near to below normal.

Rainfall should average near to above normal.

Canadian Prairies (Canola/Spring Wheat)

Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba

Summary: Light to locally moderate showers occurred yesterday in south and west Alberta, west and north Saskatchewan and southern Manitoba. Temperatures averaged near to above normal for the morning lows, near to below normal for the afternoon highs.

Forecast: Scattered light showers or light rain favoring northeast areas today.

Drier tomorrow. Dry or with only a few light showers through eastern areas Sunday. Temperatures average near to above normal today and Saturday, near to above normal west and near to below normal east Sunday.

Mostly dry Monday and Tuesday. Dry or with only light showers developing through northwest areas Wednesday. Temperatures average mostly above normal west and near to below normal east during this period.

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures are expected to average above normal in the west, near to above normal east, during this period. Rainfall should average near to above normal through central and northern Alberta and northern Saskatchewan, near to below normal elsewhere in the region.

Joel Burgio

(SK)

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Joel Burgio