DTN Midday Livestock Comments

Cattle Futures Push Higher Despite Morning Losses

Rick Kment
By  Rick Kment , DTN Analyst
(DTN photo by Russ Quinn)
GENERAL COMMENTS:

Mixed trade is seen across livestock futures with live cattle futures focusing on renewed commercial buyer support moving into the market and potentially establishing a price target of $123 per cwt in front month June futures Thursday afternoon. Lean hog futures remain lightly traded in a narrow losses as traders assess the recent inability to break through the $80 resistance level that currently remains a technical barrier. Corn prices are lower in light trade. July corn futures are 6 cents lower. Stock markets are higher in light trade. The Dow Jones is 13 points higher while Nasdaq is up 23 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

Mixed trade remains across live cattle future with light buyer support slowly redeveloping in June and August contracts. This move has quickly pulled nearby contracts from strong triple digit losses early in the session to moderate 50 cent gains in June contracts June futures are holding at $123 per cwt. Deferred contracts are holding narrow losses while the lack of support seen early in the complex remains given the inability to find commercial buyer support available to step back into the market over the near future. Cash cattle trade continues to develop Thursday morning with activity seen in the South at $133 and $134 per cwt live basis. This is $3 to $4 per cwt lower than last week's average price levels. At this point, trade has not yet redeveloped in the North, although bids are seen at $133 to $134 live and $212 to $216 dressed. It is expected that about 10,000 head sold on Wednesday in Nebraska, leaving more cattle yet to be traded before packers can call it a week. It is likely that the price levels have been set and trade may be inked yet this afternoon. But clean-up trade could be carried over into Friday. Beef cut-outs at midday are steady to lower, $0.42 lower (select) and unchanged per cwt (choice) with light movement of 74 total loads reported (27 loads of choice cuts, 28 loads of select cuts, 9 loads of trimmings, 9 loads of ground beef).

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FEEDER CATTLE:

Buyer support has moved back into feeder cattle markets at midday as contracts have moved from light to moderate losses, to firm gains as commercial buying is starting to firm as traders are pointing to end of the day activity. August and September contracts are leading the complex higher with 70 to 90 cent gains as traders are holding price levels above $148 per cwt in these summer contract months. The focus on the ability to draw commercial buyer support in live cattle trade is helping to draw additional increased activity back into the feeder cattle market.

LEAN HOGS:

Narrow losses have slowly developed in lean hog futures as traders have moved into the complex with front-month June futures holding a 15 cent per cwt loss at midday. The inability to move summer contracts in either direction continues to limit not only the ability for traders to move back into the markets, but also but to show much more interest at this point given that prices continue to hover just under $79 per cwt. The inability to break through $80 per cwt in the last several trading sessions, may have long lasting implications in the entire complex. Cash prices are lower on the National Direct morning cash hog report. The weighted average price lost $0.89 at $70.54 per cwt with the range from $67.00 to $72.00 on 3,716 head reported sold. Cash prices are lower on the Iowa Minnesota Direct morning cash hog report. The weighted average price lost $0.73 at $71.26 per cwt with the range from $67.00 to $72.00 on 1,280 head reported sold. The National Pork Plant Report reported 162 loads selling with prices falling 0.06 per cwt. Lean hog index for 5/16 is at $74.14 up $1.13 with a projected two-day index of $74.92 down $0.78.

Rick Kment can be reached at rick.kment@dtn.com

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Rick Kment