DTN Before The Bell Grain Comments

Morning CME Globex Update:

Corn, soybeans, and wheat are all off to a quiet start early Tuesday, waiting for a new round of USDA estimates in Wednesday's WASDE report. Rain on Wednesday will add to this spring's planting challenges for row crops.

Other Markets:

Dow Jones:	Higher
U.S. Dollar Index:	Higher
Gold:	Lower
Crude Oil:	Lower

Corn:

July corn was up 1 1/2 cents early Tuesday, starting a little higher after Monday's Crop Progress report showed corn planting behind its usual pace again. USDA said 47% of U.S. corn was planted and 15% had emerged, both less than their five-year averages of 52% and 19% respectively. Looking ahead the next few days, rain from the central Plains to the mid-Atlantic, along with cooler temperatures in the eastern Midwest and northeastern U.S., will add to planting challenges and reinforce the view that some corn acres will be lost in 2017. Wednesday's WASDE report is not expected to show much change in the current estimate of U.S. ending corn stocks, but Dow Jones' survey does expect a lower U.S. ending stocks estimate of 2.11 billion bushels for 2017-18 along with lower world ending corn stocks. July corn continues to trade within a sideways range with support at $3.61 3/4. DTN's National Corn Index closed at $3.27 Monday, priced 39 cents below the July contract and still in a sideways range. There were 712 contracts of May corn delivered early Tuesday. In outside markets, the June U.S. dollar index is up 0.49 with widespread talk of a rate hike coming in June.

Soybeans:

July soybeans were up a penny early, keeping a low profile ahead of Wednesday's WASDE report. Dow Jones' survey of analysts expects little change in the current ending stocks estimate, but a higher estimate of new-crop ending soybean stocks of 572 million bushels, based on 4.25 bb of production and record high plantings. Late Monday, USDA said 14% of soybeans were planted, down from the five-year average of 19%, but there is still time to catch up if weather will allow. With this year's record harvest in Brazil and record U.S. soybean planting still expected, July soybeans remain under bearish pressure but are also holding above support at $9.41 1/4. DTN's National Soybean Index closed at $8.92 Monday, priced 72 cents below the July contract and down from its highest price in nearly five weeks. Among May contracts, there were four deliveries of soybean meal and 96 deliveries in soybean oil early Tuesday.

Wheat:

July Chicago wheat was quiet overnight, pausing down a quarter-cent after USDA's latest weekly assessment of crop conditions. Late Monday, USDA said 50% of winter wheat was headed and 15% of the crop was rated poor to very poor, up from 13% a week ago. Given that last week's crop tour was unable to make 28% of its usual stops, USDA's crop rating is still suspiciously high, but if we accept USDA numbers, DTN's Winter Wheat Condition Index dropped from 134 to 129 and remains well above the five-year average of 97. USDA also said 54% of spring wheat was planted and 21% was emerged, below its five-year pace of 60% and 20% respectively. Dow Jones' survey is expecting to see a lower estimate of 974 mb of U.S. ending wheat stocks in Wednesday's WASDE report, partly due to the lowest U.S. planting in over a century. The all-wheat production estimate is expected at 1.92 bb, but is too early to accurately reflect damage from last week's storms. July Chicago wheat has fallen back from last week's surge, but remains in an early uptrend. DTN's National SRW index closed at $3.92 Monday, priced 42 cents below the July contract and down from its highest price in seven weeks. Among May contracts, there was 13 deliveries of Chicago wheat and one delivery of Kansas City wheat early Tuesday.

Todd Hultmancan be reached at todd.hultman@dtn.com

FollowTodd on Twitter @ToddHultman1

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