DTN Closing Grain Comments

Winter Wheat Leads Grains Lower

Todd Hultman
By  Todd Hultman , DTN Lead Analyst
Connect with Todd:
(DTN illustration by Nick Scalise)

General Comments:

Corn was down 4 1/2 cents in the May contract and down 4 1/4 cents in the December. Soybeans were down 2 1/4 cents in the May contract and up 1/2 cent in the November. Wheat closed down 8 3/4 cents in the May Chicago contract, down 11 cents in the May Kansas City, and down 1 1/2 cents in the May Minneapolis contract.

The June U.S. dollar index is down 0.38 at 100.08. June gold is up $1.00 at $1,289.50 while May silver is down 3 cents and May copper is up $0.0265. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 131 at 20,584. May crude oil is down $0.48 at $52.70. May heating oil is down $0.0143 while May RBOB gasoline is down $0.0140 and May natural gas is down $0.059.

Corn:

May corn closed down 4 1/2 cents Monday, pressured by rain in this week's forecast for central Brazil where another record crop is expected to be doing well. Here in the U.S., much of the Midwest received rain over the weekend and more is expected this week, especially in the eastern and southern Midwest. Demand for U.S. corn remains active and earlier Monday, USDA said 52.3 million bushels of corn were inspected last week for export, a bullish amount that has total inspections up 64% in 2016-17 from a year ago. Friday's CFTC data showed noncommercials slightly bearish in corn with 25,764 contracts net short as of April 11. Commercials were net long 37,142 contracts, showing light support for spot prices under $3.70. May corn continues to trend sideways with price gains limited by expectations for increased corn exports from South America this summer. DTN's National Corn Index closed at $3.35 Thursday, priced 36 cents below the May contract and near its highest price in five weeks. In outside markets, the June U.S. dollar index is down 0.38 and June gold is up $1.00 after North Korea unsuccessfully launched a test missile over the weekend. June cattle posted a new contract high.

P[L1] D[0x0] M[300x250] OOP[F] ADUNIT[] T[]

Soybeans:

May soybeans closed down 2 1/4 cents after the National Oilseed Processors Association said 153.1 million bushels of U.S. soybeans were crushed in March, down 2% from a year ago and less than expected. Soybean oil stocks totaled 1.815 billion pounds at the end of the month, more than was expected. Even before Monday's report, soybean meal and bean oil took distinctly different directions with May meal ending down $4.10 while May bean oil finished up 0.61. Soybean oil prices were likely supported by news that the U.S. Commerce Department is investigating antidumping charges of biodiesel imports from Argentina and Indonesia. Speaking of dumping, after several weeks of noncommercials liquidating long positions, Friday's CFTC data showed noncommercial traders now neutral about soybeans with 54 contracts net long as of April 11. Commercials were net long 64,173 contracts, offering support for prices near their lowest level in a year. USDA said soybean inspections totaled 17.0 million bushels last week, down from the previous week, but bullish enough to keep total inspections up 14% in 2016-17 from a year ago. So far, May soybean prices remain in a downtrend, under bearish pressure. DTN's National Soybean Index closed at $8.82 Thursday, priced 74 cents below the May contract and up from its lowest prices in a year. Also of interest to soybean traders, China's National Bureau of Statistics said real GDP was up 6.9% in the first quarter of 2017 from a year ago, a little more than expected reported RTTNews.com.

Wheat:

May Chicago wheat closed down 8 3/4 cents and May Kansas City wheat down 11 cents, both pressured by more rain in this week's U.S. forecast and the anticipation of a little higher crop ratings in Monday afternoon's Crop Progress reports. Most of the southwestern Plains received beneficial rain over the past week and more is on the way this week, except for the westernmost edge of the region. Outside the U.S., Western Europe is said to be on the dry side, but no serious problems are being reported yet. USDA said 24.7 million bushels of wheat were inspected for export last week, a neutral amount that has total inspections on pace with USDA's export estimate. Friday's CFTC data showed noncommercial traders still bearish in Chicago wheat with 85,285 contracts net short as of April 11. Commercials continue to support wheat prices with 82,577 contracts net long. May Chicago wheat prices continue to trade sideways with a bearish fundamental outlook. DTN's National SRW index closed at $3.89 Thursday, priced 41 cents below the May contract and up from its lowest price in three months. DTN's National HRW index closed at $3.37 and up from its lowest price in three months

Todd Hultman can be reached at todd.hultman@dtn.com

Follow Todd Hultman on Twitter @ToddHultman1

(BAS)

P[L2] D[728x90] M[320x50] OOP[F] ADUNIT[] T[]
P[R1] D[300x250] M[300x250] OOP[F] ADUNIT[] T[]
P[R2] D[300x250] M[320x50] OOP[F] ADUNIT[] T[]
DIM[1x3] LBL[] SEL[] IDX[] TMPL[standalone] T[]
P[R3] D[300x250] M[0x0] OOP[F] ADUNIT[] T[]

Todd Hultman