DTN Closing Livestock Comments

Futures Pressure Develops as Traders Pull Back from Market Support

Rick Kment
By  Rick Kment , DTN Analyst
(DTN file photo)

Closing Comments

Cash cattle trade remains undeveloped Tuesday afternoon with live bids developed in Nebraska at $124, although even these bids were few and far between through the day as cattle were to be delivered in the second half of April for this money. Asking prices are seen at $130 in the South and $210 in the North. It is expected that additional market clarity will develop Wednesday, although more activity may not be seen until it gets closer to the end of the week. According to the closing report, the national hog base is $0.30 lower compared with the Prior Day settlement ($55.00-$61.50, weighted average $60.01). The corn trade slipped lower in light activity. May futures posted a 4-cent loss Tuesday. The Dow Jones Index is 39 points higher with the Nasdaq up 4 points.

LIVE CATTLE

Strong nearby pressure developed across the live cattle trade, leaving the cattle markets under pressure ($0.22 to $1.40 per cwt lower) as traders try to deal with the lower cash markets and potential that seasonal highs may have been already met. This has created pressure Tuesday as April contracts have quickly faded away from $120 per cwt, and June contracts have started to back away from the $110-per-cwt price level. The ability for boxed beef values to show strong support in the morning report helped to bring some stability to the market midday, but was not enough to hold buyers to the market through the end of the trading session. Beef cut-outs: lower, $0.96 lower (select, $200.39) to down $1.74 (choice, $211.69) with light to moderate demand and moderate to heavy offerings (82 loads of choice cuts, 50 loads of select cuts, 10 loads of trimmings, 28 loads of coarse grinds).

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WEDNESDAY'S CASH CATTLE CALL:

Steady to $2 lower. Early activity Wednesday is expected to remain quiet with asking prices redeveloped around $130 per cwt in the South and $210 in the North. It is possible that bids may become more defined, but not expected to be extremely available until late in the day.

FEEDER CATTLE

Feeder cattle futures remained mostly lower (steady to $2.05 lower) Tuesday with triple-digit losses quickly moving into the complex as April futures closed $2.05 per cwt lower. The break away from support levels of $136 per cwt seen last week has created additional long-term pressure through the market and continues to draw long-term liquidation through the entire cattle complex. Traders may look for additional pressure through the week, given the aggressive upward movement seen over the last month. CME cash feeder index: 4/3: $133.30, up $0.03.

LEAN HOGS

Lean hog futures turned lower ($0.07 to $1.12 lower) with triple-digit losses quickly developed through nearby lean hog futures at closing bell as April and May contracts futures tumbled lower in the last hour of trade following the inability for buyers to move back into the market and April contracts closed at $63.67 per cwt after a $1.12 loss. Summer 2017 contracts posted 20- to 30-cent losses, but also are trading at $72 to $73 per cwt, which has turned nearly $7 per cwt lower over the last two weeks. This lack of support in the entire complex has led the market looking for a bottom and the ability to step back into the market. Carcass values are lower. Sharp losses in bellies offset gains in all other primals. Pork cut-out: $75.50 down $0.39. CME cash lean index for 3/31: $67.59, down $0.61. DTN Projected lean index for 4/3: $67.07, down $0.57.

WEDNESDAY'S CASH HOG CALL

Steady to $1 lower. Eroding cash market support is expected to once again be seen through midweek with the continued pressure in futures trade developing uncertainty through the cash markets. Packer runs are steady through the week with 440,000 seen through the week, although end-of-the-week runs are expected to be sluggish with Saturday runs abbreviated with only 78,000 expected.

Rick Kment can be reached at rick.kment@dtn.com

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Rick Kment