DTN Midday Livestock Comments

Hog Futures Hold Gains Ahead of Afternoon Report

Rick Kment
By  Rick Kment , DTN Analyst
(DTN photo by Russ Quinn)
GENERAL COMMENTS:

Lean hog futures have bounced quickly higher as short-covering has moved into the market ahead of the release of the Hogs and Pigs report Thursday afternoon. Cattle trade remains under pressure as trades are squaring positions at the end of the month following previous market support and concerns of fundamental seasonal pressure. Corn prices are lower in light trade. May corn futures are 1 cent lower. Stock markets are higher in light trade. The Dow Jones is 47 points higher while Nasdaq is up 6 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

Light trade activity is seen in cattle markets Thursday as trades appear to be squaring positions at the end of the month. April futures are testing support near $120 per cwt as all nearby and deferred contracts are holding moderate to firm losses through the morning. Traders are looking for additional losses with pressure in feeder cattle trade and uncertainty in cash cattle markets as the week continues. The lack of support in beef values through the end of March is unable to draw commercial buyers back to the table at this point also, bringing lack of overall support to the market in many areas. Cash cattle markets are starting to become more active with bids developing in all areas with bids seen from $126 to $128 live and $206 to $208 dressed. This is still $2 to $4 per cwt lower than last week's price levels, at this point, and has most feedlot managers waiting for improved price levels later in the week. Asking prices remain at $132 in the South and $213 to $215 in the North. It may be sometime Friday before active trade develops. Beef cut-outs at midday are lower, $0.30 lower (select) and down $0.80 per cwt (choice) with light movement of 68 total loads reported (45 loads of choice cuts, 17 loads of select cuts, no loads of trimmings, 7 loads of ground beef).

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FEEDER CATTLE:

Sharp losses have developed in feeder cattle futures with the biggest losses in deferred contracts. This pressure has quickly pulled back from the previous gains in the complex and caused a moderate correction through the summer and fall contracts. Light trade is seen in all markets as August through October contracts are holding losses over $2 per cwt at midday, and are likely to continue to hold this pressure through the end of the trading session due to the lack of interest in the session.

LEAN HOGS:

Strong buyer support has quickly moved back into lean hog futures trade as traders anticipate the upcoming Hogs and Pigs report, which will be released following markets close Thursday afternoon. This has pushed May through August contracts firmly higher as traders remain focused on aggressive market activity and the potential to turn around the previous weakness in the complex seen over the last several weeks. April futures remain lightly traded, but have turned higher with a 25-cent gain at midday, moving above $65 per cwt. Cash prices are lower on the National Direct morning cash hog report. The weighted average price fell $0.73 at $61.94 per cwt with the range from $56.00 to $62.50 on 4,671 head reported sold. Cash prices are unreported due to confidentiality on the Iowa Minnesota Direct morning cash hog report. The National Pork Plant Report reported 217 loads selling with prices falling $0.03 per cwt. Lean hog index for 3/28 is at $69.40 down $0.38 with a projected two-day index of $68.86 down $0.54.

Rick Kment can be reached at rick.kment@dtn.com

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Rick Kment