DTN Midday Livestock Comments

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Livestock futures remain under pressure Monday, although cattle futures are trading better than expected given the situation surrounding the Brazilian beef situation. April live cattle futures are trading 60 to 70 cents per cwt lower at midday. Lean hog futures remain triple digits lower as continued pressure remains focused on building supply issues. Corn prices are lower in light trade. May corn futures are 2 cents lower. Stock markets are mixed in light trade. The Dow Jones is 40 points lower while Nasdaq is up 6 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

Moderate pressure is seen in live cattle futures Monday morning. April live cattle futures are holding losses of 60 to 70 cent losses with traders focusing on pressure from the Brazilian cattle market news, but still focusing on market stability moving forward based on the potential of longer term firming beef market supply tightness in the domestic market. This could help to bring about additional long-term market support over the near term. Cash cattle markets is undeveloped Monday morning. There are questions concerning just how much cash cattle trade needs to, or will be done this week, as packers are increasingly sluggish when it comes to chasing prices higher this week. Asking prices remain at $132 and higher in the South and $217 to $218 in the North. Trade that does develop may be seen around or after the release of the cattle on feed report Friday. Beef cut-outs at midday are lower, $0.03 lower (select) and down $1.99 per cwt (choice) with light movement of 34 total loads reported (19 loads of choice cuts, 6 loads of select cuts, no loads of trimmings, 8 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

Strong pressure has been seen in feeder cattle trade at midday as moderate pressure during the morning has continued to develop through the day as increased softness has continued to be seen in all markets. Even though more focus is not seen in live cattle markets through midday, the lack of support in boxed beef values and overall interest in the enter livestock market is creating a strong pullback in the feeder cattle market. Because of the sharp unchecked price surge in feeder cattle futures prices over the last three weeks, aggressive market corrections are not starting to be seen. This is allowing for $1.50 to $1.80 losses to develop across the complex.

LEAN HOGS:

Triple-digit losses have once again swept through lean hog futures market Monday morning. This latest move has quickly added to the most recent pressure in the complex and broken through support levels of $66.75 per cwt seen in early March. The concern that increased supplies will be unable to limit the ability to keep demand from becoming burdensome over the next several weeks and months. This could put more pressure on prices through the spring and summer, limiting seasonal prices moves. Cash prices are lower on the National Direct morning cash hog report. The weighted average price fell $0.76 at $63.61 per cwt with the range from $58.00 to $64.50 on 3,038 head reported sold. Cash prices are lower on the Iowa Minnesota Direct morning cash hog report. The weighted average price fell $0.77 at $63.57 per cwt with the range from $59.00 to $64.50 on 237 head reported sold. The National Pork Plant Report reported 160 loads selling with prices gaining $1.40 per cwt. Lean hog index for 3/23 is at $70.91 down $0.38 with a projected two-day index of $70.24 down $0.67.

Rick Kment can be reached at rick.kment@dtn.com

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