DTN Ag Weather Brief

DTN Ag Weather Brief

Joel Burgio , DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist
METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION

The northern branch of the jet stream features a ridge between Siberia and Alaska and a series of weak ridges and troughs across Alaska, northern Canada and Greenland. This is a mild/warm pattern for western and central Canada, mild/cool in the east. The southern branch of the jet features a trough in the eastern pacific/Gulf of Alaska. A ridge from the interior western U.S. to the interior eastern U.S. and a trough off the east coast.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK

The U.S. and European models are in good agreement through 6 days, fair agreement days 7-10. During the 6-10 day period the northern branch of the jet will feature a series of weak ridges and troughs extending from Alaska across northern Canada into Greenland. The will be a mild pattern for Canada. The southern branch of the jet will feature a trough in the Gulf of Alaska. A trough over the southwest states and a ridge over the eastern U.S. This will be an active rainfall pattern for the southern U.S. including the currently dry areas of the southern plains as gulf moisture is able to move into the troughs coming out of the southwest far enough to the west due to the ridging in the east. This will be a rather mild pattern due to the lack of cold air in Canada and the combination of pacific flow in the western U.S. and ridging in the eastern U.S.

This pattern will feature variable temperatures in the Midwest during the next 5 days, near to above normal days 6-10. Precipitation near to above normal. The southern plains will see variable temperatures during the next 5 days, near to above normal days 6-10. Precipitation near to above normal. The northern plains will see variable temperatures early in the period, near to above normal thereafter. Precipitation mostly below normal. The Delta states will see near to above normal temperatures. Rainfall below normal during the next 5 days, above normal days 6-10.

Mike Palmerino

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH SUN...99 AT DEATH VALLEY CA

LOW SUN...8 BELOW ZERO AT BIG BLACK RIVER ME

24 HOUR RAINFALL AT 7PM YESTERDAY...WASHINGTON DC 0.59 INCH

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

The US and European models are fair to good agreement in the overall pattern but differ somewhat on timing and exact track of features. This is a split jet stream pattern with indications of a more active southern branch jet stream.

Troughs move eastward over the central Rockies and into the central plains before lifting northward over the Midwest region. The systems may still be moving a little too fast while crossing the central and southern plains wheat belt to bring moderate rains to western areas but they appear to have slowed down somewhat from earlier in the year. This should allow for at least some precipitation in the west with the better chance for more meaningful rainfall still for the eastern portion of the plains wheat belt. The active southern branch jet stream continues to favor more rain for the Delta and the southern and eastern Midwest regions. The northwest Midwest may also see somewhat more precipitation during the 6-10 day period as well but this is a little more uncertain. In either case the western Midwest region does have a good chance for significant rainfall a system moving across prior to the 6-10 day period, especially this coming Thursday into Friday. The northern branch of the jet stream runs west to east across central Canada before dipping southward around an upper level trough in the Atlantic. This puts the southern Canada and northern US areas in an above normal temperature pattern. The southern plains may be somewhat cooler due to the mean southern branch trough in that area while the southeast US is warm being east of the trough position.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

DELTA/SOUTHEAST: Frost and freeze conditions that hit the Delta and the southeast US during the past week is likely to have an impact on any blooming fruit trees and may also have impacted other crops that are well ahead of normal development due to a very warm February. It does not appear that the winter wheat crop in the Delta and the southern Midwest was far enough along to be significantly impacted by these temperatures.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES: No significant precipitation is expected during the 5 day period.

NORTH PLAINS/WEST MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/HOGS): No significant weather to impact livestock or transport during the next 5 days. Precipitation this coming Thursday and Friday in and around Iowa may occur mostly as rain.

CENTRAL/SOUTH PLAINS (Wheat/Livestock): Soil moisture is decreasing in the southern plains of the US, increasing the risk to wheat...especially during periods of very warm weather as we has seen this weekend. There is some chance for a little more significant rainfall occurring in parts of the plains wheat belt later this week and also during the 6-10 day period. It is still not clear whether the southwest part of the belt will benefit from this chance.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/SUNFLOWER): Favorable conditions for developing and filling corn and soybeans in the major growing areas of central Argentina. Some improvement in rainfall in the double crop soybean areas in the south.

BRAZIL (SOYBEANS/CORN): Mostly favorable conditions for second crop corn in central Brazil areas. Generally favorable conditions for filling soybeans in southern Brazil.

EAST MIDWEST/DELTA (WINTER WHEAT): Soil moisture has been recharged this winter after drought conditions in southern areas last fall.

FRANCE/GERMANY (WINTER WHEAT/RAPESEED): Generous rains during the first 10 days of March has helped ease concerns for crops that are well ahead of normal development.

SOUTH AFRICA (MAIZE/SUGARCANE): Crops will benefit from a warmer period with only scattered shower activity, after prior heavy rains hit the region.

UKRAINE/SOUTH RUSSIA (WINTER WHEAT): Recent warm weather has melted much, if not all, of the protective snow cover and even lead to some greening of crops in southern areas. The crop would be more vulnerable in the event of a turn to colder conditions. Cooler and unsettled weather is likely during the next week or so but it is not expected that this would be cold enough to cause harm to the crop at this stage.

INDIA (WINTER WHEAT): A significant rain event spread needed moisture to the winter wheat areas of Pakistan and India late in January. This should supplement irrigation for the crop likely jointing to possibly early reproductive at the time and will be considered favorable. Scattered showers redeveloped in the area again at the end of last week and during the early weekend period.

AUSTRALIA (SORGHUM/COTTON): Recent rainfall and cooler conditions favor late developing crops in the area. Heavier rainfall due to thunderstorms in the area during the past week have been unfavorable for mature summer crops and will likely delay harvesting and may impact quality.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest corn, soybean and winter wheat

Summary...

West: Mostly dry through Sunday. A little light rain develops in eastern Iowa overnight. Temperatures averaged near to above normal Saturday, above to well above normal Sunday.

East: A little light rain or showers occurred through southern and eastern areas Friday into Friday night. Drier Saturday and during the daytime hours of Sunday. Light to locally moderate showers have developed overnight in north and east-central Illinois, north Indiana and south Michigan. Temperatures averaged near to below normal.

Forecast...

West: Mostly dry today. Dry or with only a little light precipitation favoring western and southern areas during Tuesday. Dry Wednesday. Temperatures average above normal today, near normal Tuesday, near to below normal Wednesday.

Light to moderate rain and showers with locally heavier during Thursday and Friday. Dry or with only lingering light rain during Saturday. Temperatures average near to above normal Thursday, above normal Friday, near to above normal Saturday.

East: Light to moderate rain or showers favoring central and eastern areas during today. Dry or with only a little light precipitation through southern areas during Tuesday. Dry Wednesday. Temperatures average near to above normal today and Tuesday, below normal Wednesday.

Mostly dry during the daytime hours Thursday. Light rain or showers north, a few light showers south, Thursday night. Light to moderate showers and thundershowers with locally heavier develop in the west and spread east during Friday and Saturday. Temperatures average below normal Thursday, above normal Friday, above to near normal Saturday.

6 to 10 day outlook...Temperatures are expected to average near to above normal. Precipitation should average near to above normal.

Central/Southern Plains (Winter Wheat, Corn, Soybean, Sorghum)

Summary: Mostly dry during the weekend period. Temperatures averaged above to well above normal Saturday, well above normal Sunday. Highs Sunday were 80 to 89F in Colorado, 82-91F in south Nebraska, 89-94F in Kansas, 86-95F in Oklahoma, 86-96F in north Texas...including the panhandle.

Forecast: Mostly dry today. Dry or with only a few very light showers north and east areas tomorrow and Wednesday. Temperatures average above to well above normal today, cooler or much cooler tomorrow and Wednesday. Temperatures Wednesday should average near to below normal.

Light to moderate showers and thundershowers with locally heavier during Thursday into Friday, favoring northern and eastern areas. Mainly dry Saturday.

Temperatures average near to above normal.

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures are expected to average near to above normal during this period. Precipitation should average near to below normal west, near to above normal east.

Brazil (Soybeans)

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana

Summary: Light to moderate showers with locally heavier were reported in Parana during the weekend period. Mostly dry in Santa Catarina and RGDS during this time. Temperatures averaged below normal Saturday, near to below normal Sunday.

Forecast: Mostly dry today through Wednesday. Temperatures average mostly near to slightly below normal.

Dry or with only a few light showers Thursday or Friday. Dry Saturday.

Temperatures average near to below normal.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias.

Summary: Scattered showers and thunderstorms, 0.50-1.50 inches (13-38 mm) and locally heavier, were reported in the region during the weekend period.

Temperatures averaged below normal.

Forecast: Daily chances for afternoon or evening thundershowers in north and west-central Mato Grosso through Wednesday. Drier elsewhere in the region during this time. Temperatures turn somewhat warmer.

Daily chance for scattered showers in Mato Grosso and Goias during Thursday through Saturday. Drier in MGDS during this time. Temperatures near to below normal.

Argentina Corn, Soybeans, Sunflower

Cordoba, Santa Fe, North Buenos Aires

Summary: Mostly dry during the weekend period. Temperatures averaged near to below normal.

Forecast: Dry today. Dry or with only a few light showers favoring north and east areas tomorrow or during Wednesday. Temperatures average near to above normal during this period.

Mostly dry Thursday and Friday. Chance for scattered showers and thundershowers in the west, continued drier central and east, during Saturday.

Temperatures average above normal.

La Pampa, South Buenos Aires

Summary: Mostly dry during the weekend period. Temperatures averaged near to above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry Monday through Wednesday. Temperatures average near to above normal Monday, above normal Tuesday and Wednesday.

Mostly dry Thursday and Friday. Chance for a few showers and thundershowers, favoring the western areas, during Saturday. Temperatures average above normal.

Joel Burgio

(SK)