DTN Closing Grain Comments

Row Crops Earn Small Gains in Quiet Trade

Todd Hultman
By  Todd Hultman , DTN Lead Analyst
Connect with Todd:
(DTN illustration by Nick Scalise)

General Comments:

Corn was up 2 1/2 cents in the May contract and up 2 1/2 cents in the December. Soybeans were up 3 1/2 cents in the May contract and up 2 1/2 cents in the November. Wheat closed unchanged in the May Chicago contract, up 2 3/4 cents in the May Kansas City, and up 7 1/2 cents in the May Minneapolis contract.

The June U.S. dollar index is down 0.23 at 100.34. April gold is up $26.00 at $1,226.70 while May silver is up 38 cents and May copper is up $0.0215. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 10 at 20,940. April crude oil is unchanged at $48.86. April heating oil is down $0.0058 while April RBOB gasoline is up $0.0087 and April natural gas is down $0.059.

Corn:

May corn closed up 2 1/2 cents Thursday, rescued from their lowest prices in ten weeks with help from early commercial buying and another week of bullish export numbers. Early Thursday, USDA said last week's export sales and shipments of corn totaled 49.4 and 62.2 million bushels respectively, putting total exports up 66% in 2016-17 from a year ago and well above USDA's estimate of a 17% increase. Brazil's second crop is doing well so far and this week's forecast expects broad coverage of light to moderate showers which are beneficial. For now however, spot U.S. corn prices remain a bargain compared to Brazil so the increased export business should keep flowing toward the U.S. and that is helping May corn find support near $3.60. DTN's National Corn Index closed at $3.23 Wednesday, priced 41 cents below the May contract and near its lowest price in ten weeks. In outside markets, the June U.S. dollar index is down 0.23 while April gold is up $26.00 -- not what most would have expected after Wednesday's quarter-percent rate hike.

P[L1] D[0x0] M[300x250] OOP[F] ADUNIT[] T[]

Soybeans:

May soybeans closed up 3 1/2 cents, finally ending their string of eight consecutive losses while Brazil's record soybean harvest continues to exert downward pressure on prices. This week's forecast for Brazil remains favorable for harvest progress with temporary rain delays possible at southern ports. While Brazil's exports are picking up, U.S. soybean prices are still competitive and U.S. exports remain active. USDA said last week's export sales and shipments of U.S. soybeans totaled 17.3 and 31.2 million bushels respectively, a bullish combination that has total exports up 14% in 2016-17 from a year ago. USDA then added 4.4 million bushels (120,000 mt) of U.S. soybeans were sold to unknown destinations for 2016-17. While May soybean prices remain under harvest pressure, they have been slow to follow through on Tuesday's new four-month low. DTN's National Soybean Index closed at $9.20 Wednesday, priced 78 cents below the May contract and near its lowest price in three months.

Wheat

May Chicago wheat finished steady Thursday, helped by an unexpected drop in the U.S. dollar after the Fed raised the federal funds target on Wednesday and by the ongoing threat of dry weather in the southwestern Plains. The U.S. Drought Monitor continues to show moderate to severe drought conditions in the region and the seven-day forecast expects only light amounts. For the months of April, the Climate Prediction Center expects average precipitation throughout winter wheat country with above-normal temperatures. On the demand side, U.S. exports are still not active enough to dent supplies. USDA said last week's export sales and shipments of wheat totaled 9.7 and 22.8 million bushels respectively, a neutral-to-bearish combination that is four points below USDA's estimated pace for a 32% gain in 2016-17. USDA did say later that 4.4 million bushels (120,000 mt) of U.S. hard red winter wheat were sold to Algeria for 2016-17. In spite of Monday's new five-week low, May Chicago wheat seems likely to trade sideways in March while we learn more about the next wheat crop. DTN's National SRW index closed at $3.92 Wednesday, priced 44 cents below the May contract and up from its lowest close in five weeks. DTN's National HRW index closed at $3.54 and up from its lowest price in five weeks.

Todd Hultman can be reached at todd.hultman@dtn.com

Follow Todd Hultman on Twitter @ToddHultman1

(ES)

P[L2] D[728x90] M[320x50] OOP[F] ADUNIT[] T[]
P[R1] D[300x250] M[300x250] OOP[F] ADUNIT[] T[]
P[R2] D[300x250] M[320x50] OOP[F] ADUNIT[] T[]
DIM[1x3] LBL[] SEL[] IDX[] TMPL[standalone] T[]
P[R3] D[300x250] M[0x0] OOP[F] ADUNIT[] T[]

Todd Hultman