Market Impact Weather

Central Brazil Showers; Dry Trend Continuing for HRW Crop

Elaine Shein
By  Elaine Shein , DTN/Progressive Farmer Associate Content Manager
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OMAHA (DTN) -- Favorable rains for central Brazil's corn crop, and a dry trend continuing for the Southern Plains' winter wheat crop are the key weather items for the commodity trade's attention Tuesday.

VARIABLE MIDWEST CONDITIONS

The DTN ag weather forecast calls for no significant weather to affect livestock or transport during the next five days in the Northern Plains and western Midwest. In the eastern Midwest, soil moisture has been recharged this winter after drought conditions in southern areas last fall. For the next few days, there will be variable precipitation, with scattered showers favoring eastern and southern areas Friday, but otherwise dry or light precipitation. In the six- to 10-day outlook, temperatures are expected to vary somewhat. Precipitation should average near to above normal south and east, and near to below normal in northwest areas.

LIMITED SOUTHERN PLAINS MOISTURE

Soil moisture is decreasing in the Southern Plains. Strong to very strong winds and very low dew points earlier last week have likely pulled moisture from the ground and emerged wheat at an even faster rate than normal. The chances for meaningful rainfall in the region are rather limited during the next 10 days, especially for western locations.

MAJOR NORTHEAST SNOWSTORM

A major northeast snowstorm will greatly affect travel throughout the northeastern U.S. today. Winter storm and blizzard warnings have been issued for much of the region.

FREEZE WARNING IN DELTA/SOUTHEAST

A freeze warning has been issued for many areas from the southern Midwest and the Delta to the southeast U.S. The concern is that crops in that area ahead of normal development -- due to very warm February and early March weather -- may be affected, especially fruit trees in bloom but also other crops well-ahead of normal development.

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DRY PATTERN IN CANADIAN PRAIRIES

The Canadian Prairies will be mainly dry over the next five days.

RAIN FOR CENTRAL BRAZIL

Wet weather in Mato Grosso in Brazil has raised concerns about quality of the soybeans being harvested. The region had been drier and hotter for much of last week until showers developed during the weekend. A new round of heavy rains may occur before the week is out. Mostly favorable conditions continue for second-crop corn in central Brazil. There are generally favorable conditions for filling soybeans in southern Brazil.

IMPROVED ARGENTINA TREND

In Argentina, central crop areas have favorable conditions for developing and filling corn and soybeans. Some improvement in rainfall in the double-crop soybean areas in the south is also noted.

DRIER TREND FOR FRANCE

Generous rains during the first 10 days of March has helped ease concerns for crops that are well-ahead of normal development in France, following a drier-than-normal winter season. However, a turn to less rainfall during the next 10 days will need to be watched.

OPEN PATTERN FOR RUSSIA

In Russia and Ukraine, recent warm weather has melted much, if not all, of the protective snow cover and even led to some greening of crops in southern areas. The crop would be more vulnerable in the event of a turn to colder conditions. Cooler and unsettled weather is likely during the next week or so, but it is not expected that this would be cold enough to harm the crop at this stage.

FAVORABLE INDIA WHEAT CONDITIONS

A significant rain event spread needed moisture to the winter wheat areas of Pakistan and India late in January. This should supplement irrigation for the crop likely jointing to possibly early reproductive at the time and is considered favorable. Scattered showers redeveloped in the area again at the end of last week and early in the weekend.

BENEFICIAL SOUTH AFRICA RAIN

South Africa crops will benefit from a warmer period with only scattered showers after prior heavy rains hit the region.

HEAVY AUSTRALIA RAIN CHANCE

In Australia, midsummer hot, dry weather increased stress to sorghum and cotton crops after a favorable start to the growing season during spring. Recent rains and cooler conditions helped ease stress to crops and favors late development of crops. Thunderstorms in the area early this week may be heavy. This is unfavorable for mature summer crops and will likely affect the harvest and quality.

Elaine Shein can be reached at elaine.shein@dtn.com

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Elaine Shein

Elaine Shein
Connect with Elaine: