Market Impact Weather

Central Brazil Showers

Bryce Anderson
By  Bryce Anderson , DTN Ag Meteorologist and DTN Analyst
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OMAHA (DTN) -- Favorable rainfall for central Brazil, and Midwest fieldwork delays due to a mid-March snowstorm, are the key weather items for the commodity trade's attention Monday.

MIDWEST SNOWSTORM

The DTN ag weather forecast calls for a mid-March snowstorm in the Midwest to cause disruption to transportation and spring fieldwork. Some livestock stress is also possible. Temperatures with the snowstorm are not likely to be low enough to damage winter wheat. A drier and warmer pattern is indicated in the six- to 10-day forecast.

DECREASING SOUTHERN PLAINS MOISTURE

Soil moisture is decreasing in the Southern Plains. Strong to very strong winds and very low dew points earlier last week have likely pulled moisture from the ground and emerged wheat at an even faster rate than normal. Wheat crop conditions were nearly unchanged from a month ago in the latest report due to limited crop moisture needs at this time of the year, but this may be changing. Crop ratings are well below a year ago at this time.

QUIET NORTHERN PLAINS FORECAST

Northern Plains' areas will have no significant weather to affect livestock or transport during the next five days.

DRY PATTERN IN CANADIAN PRAIRIES

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The Canadian Prairies will be mainly dry over the next five days. This pattern will allow for some slight easing of flood risk in eastern areas.

RAIN FOR CENTRAL BRAZIL

Across Brazil, a round of heavy rainfall may occur before the week is out. The rain will focus on central Brazil, and will be mostly favorable for soil moisture in second-crop corn areas. The impact on the soybean harvest is expected to be minimal due to excellent progress to this point.

IMPROVED ARGENTINA TREND

In Argentina, central crop areas have favorable conditions for developing and filling corn and soybeans. Some improvement in rainfall in the double crop soybean areas in the south is also noted.

VARIABLE EUROPE PRECIPITATION

Generous rains during the first 10 days of March has helped ease concerns for crops that are well ahead of normal development, following a drier-than-normal winter season. However, a turn to less rainfall during the next 10 days will need to be watched.

OPEN PATTERN FOR RUSSIA

In Russia and Ukraine, recent warm weather has melted much, if not all, of the protective snow cover and even led to some greening of crops in southern areas. The crop would be more vulnerable in the event of a turn to colder conditions. Cooler and unsettled weather is likely during the next week or so, but it is not expected that this would be cold enough to harm the crop at this stage.

FAVORABLE INDIA WHEAT CONDITIONS

A significant rain event spread needed moisture to the winter wheat areas of Pakistan and India late in January. This should supplement irrigation for the crop likely jointing to possibly early reproductive at the time and is considered favorable. Scattered showers redeveloped in the area again at the end of last week and early in the weekend.

BENEFICIAL SOUTH AFRICA RAIN

South Africa crops will benefit from a warmer period with only scattered showers after prior heavy rains hit the region.

HEAVY AUSTRALIA RAIN CHANCE

In Australia, midsummer hot, dry weather increased stress to sorghum and cotton crops after a favorable start to the growing season during spring. Recent rains and cooler conditions helped ease stress to crops and favors late development of crops. Thunderstorms in the area early this week may be heavy. This is unfavorable for mature summer crops and will likely affect the harvest and quality.

Bryce Anderson can be reached at bryce.anderson@dtn.com

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Bryce Anderson

Bryce Anderson
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