DTN Before The Bell Grain Comments

Morning CME Globex Update:

March corn was down 4 cents, March soybeans were down 14 1/4 cents, and March Chicago wheat was down 4 1/4 cents. At 8 a.m. CST, USDA announced 4.1 million bushels (105,000 mt) of U.S. corn were sold to Colombia for 2016-17. All three grains were starting lower early Monday, led by double-digit losses in soybeans with ongoing concerns about the approach of Brazil's harvest and rising trade tensions with China and Mexico.

Other Markets:

Dow Jones:	Lower
U.S. Dollar Index:	Higher
Gold:	Higher
Crude Oil:	Lower

Corn:

At 8 a.m. CST, USDA announced 4.1 million bushels (105,000 mt) of U.S. corn were sold to Colombia for 2016-17. March corn was down 4 cents early Monday, pressured by favorable forecasts for this week's weather in South America and by increased tensions with the top U.S. corn buyer, Mexico. Row crop conditions in Brazil remain mostly favorable for all but the northeastern region while temperatures are expected to be more seasonal this week in Argentina with a chance for light to moderate rain in central Argentina. Friday's CFTC data showed noncommercials becoming increasingly bullish in corn with 106,737 net longs as of Jan. 24, but prices have slid lower since then as Argentina's weather moderated the past two weeks. March corn continues to trade sideways with resistance at last week's high of $3.71. DTN's National Corn Index closed at $3.27 Friday, priced 36 cents below the March contract and down from its highest price in over five months. In outside markets, the U.S. dollar index is up 0.27 while gold is a little higher and crude oil are a little lower.

Soybeans:

March soybeans were down 14 1/4 cents early Monday, falling back from their high of two weeks ago with improvement in Argentina's weather and rising trade concerns with China and Mexico. China is also closed for business this week in celebration of their New Year so soybean trade will be light. Friday's CFTC data showed noncommercials still bullish in soybeans with 181,011 contracts net long as of Jan. 24, up 26,246 from the previous week and the most since late July. It seems odd that noncommercials are bullish with so many bearish concerns ahead -- including the advancement of Brazil's harvest. For now, March soybeans remain in an uptrend, but failed back from the attempt of a new six-month high on Jan. 18. DTN's National Soybean Index closed at $9.73 Friday, priced 76 cents below the March contract and back near its highest price in four months.

Wheat:

March Chicago wheat was down 4 1/4 cents early, influenced by row crops and Monday's higher U.S. dollar. DTN's five-day forecast is dry for the central U.S. with temperatures from the 50s to the 70s in the southern Plains early this week. Friday's CFTC data showed noncommercials staying faithfully bearish in Chicago wheat, holding 58,258 contracts net short as of Jan. 24. Commercials continue to provide support, holding 54,946 contracts net long. While there is not much happening this winter to move wheat prices very far in either direction, Chicago prices seem content to chop within their sideways range of the past three months. DTN's National SRW index closed at $3.82 Friday, priced 39 cents below the March contract and near its highest price in four months.

Todd Hultman can be reached at todd.hultman@dtn.com

FollowTodd on Twitter@ToddHultman1

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